For Friday night, DraftKings’ main slate includes all six games and features no late swap, while FanDuel’s main slate includes only the first five games and late swap. Due note that this article focuses on players who are available on both sites Friday.
The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jamal Murray at San Antonio Spurs – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Murray disappointed in his last start, finishing with only 27 DraftKings points in a road win over the Heat, but he should get back on track in this elite spot vs. the Spurs. San Antonio ranks fourth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency this season, and before Monday’s outing, Murray was in on a tear, scoring 51.5 DraftKings PPG in his previous five starts.
The Nuggets boast the highest implied team total on the slate tonight (116 points) – via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page – and Murray has recorded at least 51 DraftKings points in each of the last three games he has played behind an implied team total of 115 points or more.
Top Value: Vasilije Micic vs. Phoenix Suns – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Even with Tre Mann (groin) returning and playing a full workload, Micic thrived in a tough matchup vs. the Grizzlies on Wednesday – who rank 10th in defensive efficiency – posting 42.5 DraftKings points across 30 minutes. The rookie is amassing 31.2 DraftKings PPG since joining the Hornets’ starting lineup six games ago, and this is a solid matchup for him with the Suns on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing in Boston last night.
Micic has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in four of his past five games and should reach this feat Friday.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Vassell vs. Denver Nuggets – $7,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Scoring less than 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, Vassell shouldn’t be overly popular tonight, and there are definitely signs that point to a bounce-back performance from the shooting guard.
Vassell ranks second on the Spurs in usage this season (23.7%), and San Antonio will be at home, where the 23-year-old has been 2.2 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road this season. The Spurs are also 10-point underdogs, and when Vassell has competed as a double-digit underdog this season, he has done his best to keep San Antonio competitive, amassing 43.4 DraftKings PPG (five games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at San Antonio Spurs – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Caldwell-Pope produced 27.8 DraftKings points in the Nuggets’ last matchup with the Spurs and is a solid target at these low salaries. Since the All-Star Break, the veteran has received 30.7 minutes per game and has surpassed 20 DraftKings points in seven of his 10 starts.
As noted above, San Antonio ranks fourth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and they also are allowing their opponents to hit threes at the fifth-highest percentage this season, making this a strong spot for Caldwell-Pope, who is averaging 4.5 three-point attempts since the All-Star Break. The wing should score at least 20 fantasy points tonight, and is a cheap way to gain a share of the Nuggets’ slate-high implied team total (116 points).
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Detroit Pistons – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Butler has been force against the Pistons this season, generating 47.9 DraftKings PPG in two matchups. Detroit ranks 26th in defensive efficiency this season and Tyler Herro (foot) remains unavailable for Miami. With the Kentucky product off the court this season, Butler’s usage increases a team-high 2.2 percentage points to 27% and he supplies 1.2 DraftKings PPM.
Lastly, the Heat are also eight-point favorites tonight, which bodes well for Butler. When competing as a favorite this season, the veteran is surpassing 40 DraftKings points at a 60% clip.
Top Value: Trey Murphy vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
While not suited for cash games, Murphy has a ceiling worth chasing in GPPs. The wing has popped off for over 40 DraftKings in four of his past seven and has been very active from beyond the arc since the All-Star Break, shooting 9.7 three-pointers per game. Catching fire from distance is how Murphy succeeds from a fantasy perspective, and this Clippers defense he is facing tonight has struggled defending the perimeter as of late, allowing their opponents to hit three-pointers at the fifth-highest rate in March.
Los Angeles is also playing their second game in two nights and Murphy brings a ceiling around 35 fantasy points in our NBA models.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at Toronto Raptors – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Banchero brings a huge ceiling in this superb spot vs. the Raptors and is a player you must have some shares of tonight. With Scottie Barnes (hand) on the shelf and Immanuel Quickley running the show, Toronto leads the league in pace this month. Furthermore, they rank 24th in defensive rating. The Raptors have been one of the top matchups to attack in fantasy basketball as of late, and Banchero is in convincing form, scoring at least 45 DraftKings points in five of his past seven starts.
The forward has also been 2.1 DraftKings PPG better on the road this season and could explode in this elite matchup.
Top Value: Jonathan Isaac at Toronto Raptors – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Especially at less than $4,000 on DraftKings, Isaac is an awesome punt play. As mentioned above, the Raptors’ fast pace and weak defense this month have made them a terrific matchup, and Isaac has been efficient recently, scoring over 20 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight, when we exclude February 25th against the Hawks, when he exited after only two minutes due to injury.
One of the main reasons for Isaac’s success has been his activeness on the defensive end. The forward has blocked two shots in three straight, and this is a strong spot for this trend to continue, with Toronto giving up the fifth-most blocks in the league over their last three (6.0). Isaac is collecting 1.14 DraftKings PPM this month and is rating as the No.1 power forward value on DraftKings in our NBA Models.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembayama vs. Denver Nuggets – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Wembanyama is a mouthwatering option, with FantasyLabs projecting him for minimal ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Spurs host the defending champion Nuggets tonight, and when these clubs last met in late November in Denver, Wembanyama went off for 59.8 DraftKings points despite only logging 24.6 minutes. The rookie was under a minutes limit then but no longer has any restrictions, giving Wembanyama a monstrous ceiling this time around, especially with this game being on his home floor. The 20-year-old has been a whopping 6.3 DraftKings PPG better at home than when on the road this season and has logged 31.1 minutes per game in his last 10, which has resulted in 57.4 DraftKings PPG during this span.
Wembanyama has scored over 70 DraftKings points in two of his past four games at home and could break the slate tonight.
Top Value: Wendell Carter Jr. at Toronto Raptors – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Carter Jr. should thrive in this awesome matchup vs. the Raptors. Toronto is yielding the most rebounds and fifth-most points in the paint this month, on top of leading the NBA in pace and ranking 24th in defensive rating. Carter Jr. is collecting 32.3 DraftKings PPG in his last five and has handled a 20% usage rate over this span.
Carter should top 30 fantasy points tonight and is one of the best values on the board at these affordable price tags.
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