For Friday night, both DraftKings and FanDuel’s main slates will feature the first seven games of the night. However, DraftKings’ main slate will not feature late swap tonight, so be mindful of your lineup choices on that site.
The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Boston Celtics – $12,100 DraftKings, $12,600 FanDuel
Doncic (nose/ankle) is questionable tonight, but given he has been playing through the nose injury and the ankle injury, the superstar feels likely to suit up for this marquee matchup in Boston. Plus, Doncic was present at the shootaround this morning, which certainly bodes well for his availability.
If Doncic is active, he will likely come with slightly depressed ownership – especially on DraftKings, with their main slate not featuring late swap tonight – and will be an incredible GPP target. Doncic has been on a mission to prove he is this season’s MVP as of late, scoring over 70 DraftKings points in six of his past 10 starts, and should be highly motivated to have another huge night against this Celtics team that owns the best record in the NBA, especially with another MVP candidate in Jayson Tatum on Boston.
Leading the Mavs to a victory tonight would surely move Doncic up the MVP ladder, and while the Celtics rank third in defensive efficiency, the Slovenian is matchup-proof right now and finished with 83 DraftKings points when he met Boston in January. No player in our NBA Models brings a higher ceiling than Doncic by a wide margin. He is a player you must have some exposure to.
Top Value: Jordan Goodwin vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
With Luke Kennard (illness) and John Konchar (thumb) joining the Grizzlies’ lengthy inactive list Wednesday, Goodwin started at point guard and finished with 30.5 DraftKings points across 31.2 minutes in a brutal matchup vs. the Wolves, who rank first in defensive efficiency. The veteran finished second on Memphis in plus/minus in the loss, and with both Kennard and Konchar doubtful tonight, Goodwin should remain a starter and is an easy choice at these salaries.
The guard is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season and should see nothing less than 30 minutes in this plus matchup vs. the Blazers, who rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, giving Goodwin a tremendous ceiling for a player this cheap.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Edwards is going to get overlooked because he is questionable tonight, especially on DraftKings, where there is no late swap, but the guard notably played through the same designation Wednesday and has routinely played through questionable tags this season. The Wolves are 6.5-point favorites over the Kings, indicating Vegas believes Edwards will suit up, and if he does, the superstar should put up a huge fantasy score. Edwards has been awesome, producing 52.1 DraftKings PPG in his last 10, and the Kings are a great matchup, with them ranking 21st in defensive efficiency and 11th in pace.
Edwards has been a monster against Sacramento this season, scoring at least 58 DraftKings points in each of his first two matchups against the club, and should flourish tonight if available.
Top Value: Nickeil Alexander-Walker vs. Sacramento Kings – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Alexander-Walker is a viable punt tonight with Kyle Anderson (knee) doubtful tonight. With the veteran missing his first game of the season Wednesday, Alexander-Walker saw 23 minutes off the bench – including nearly the entire fourth quarter – en route to 29.25 DraftKings points in the nine-point win over the Grizzlies. The guard should see around 25 minutes again tonight and this is a much better matchup, with the Kings a faster offense and a weaker defense than Memphis.
For the last six instances, Alexander-Walker has logged a minimum of 20 minutes, and the 25-year-old has exceeded 20 DraftKings points four times.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Barnes has been on a great run, generating 53.4 DraftKings PPG in his last five, and his success should continue tonight against the Warriors. Golden State is playing their second game in two nights, and they rank eighth in pace. This game’s total is the second highest on the slate (237.5 points) and will take place in Toronto, where Barnes has been 4.2 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road.
In this setting, over 50 fantasy points is reasonable expectation for Barnes.
Top Value: Zaire Williams vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
With Kennard and Konchar out Wednesday, Williams took advantage and recorded 29.5 DraftKings points vs. the Wolves and their league-best defense. With 35.4 minutes, the wing ranked second only to Jaren Jackson Jr. in playing time in the loss. Furthermore, Williams is now providing 37.25 DraftKings PPG in the past two contests the Grizzlies have been without both Kennard and Konchar.
With those two players doubtful to play tonight, Williams should have zero issues exceeding five-times value against this soft Blazers’ defense.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Dallas Mavericks – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Just like Doncic, tonight is an important tilt for Tatum to help his MVP case. The Celtics own the best record in the NBA, and the Mavs come to town as winners of eight of their last 10, with Doncic playing unbelievable basketball. Tatum has been excellent himself, scoring at least 58 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts, and this is a great spot for him, with the Mavs ranking 12th in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency. Tatum has absolutely destroyed Dallas over the last two years, averaging 70.3 DraftKings PPG in three matchups and the Celtics carry the highest implied team total on the slate tonight (122.5 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Tatum is scoring 52.4 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season – via the Trends Tool – and should put on a show in this anticipated matchup with Dallas.
Top Value: Santi Aldama vs. Portland Trailblazers – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Aldama is another appealing value from the depleted Grizzlies. As mentioned above, both Kennard and Konchar are doubtful and the last two times that these two players have both been inactive, Aldama has been solid with 25.8 DraftKings points in 33.8 minutes per game.
The forward is contributing 32.8 DraftKings PPG for the 11 occasions he has cracked the 30-minute mark this season and is simply too cheap for the role he will receive tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas Mavericks – $7,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Particularly at only $7,400 on DraftKings, Porzingis is a sharp option tonight. The big man is coming off a 45 DraftKings point outing vs. the 76ers and has now eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in six of his last 10 starts. The Mavs are giving up the second most rebounds in the league this season, and Porzingis has topped 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back meetings against his former club.
Porzingis has scored over 40 DraftKings points in four straight games when the Celtics have seen an implied team total of at least 120 points and likely won’t be overly popular tonight.
Top Value: Naz Reid vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
While priced accordingly on FanDuel, Reid has a ton of merit at only $5,300 on DraftKings. With Anderson sidelined Wednesday vs. the Grizzlies, Reid was one of the primary beneficiaries for the Wolves, finishing with 35.5 DraftKings points in 25.3 minutes off the bench. The big man isn’t going to start, but with this type of workload in this ideal matchup vs. the Kings, Reid brings great upside at an affordable cost, and the fact he won’t start will surely result in people overlooking him.
FantasyLabs is projecting Reid for 25.9 minutes, and when he has logged over 25 minutes this season, the LSU product is supplying 31.8 DraftKings PPG (15 games).
