Friday’s main slate on DraftKings includes the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham vs. Charlotte Hornets – $9,900
With Jaden Ivey (leg) out for at least a month, Cunningham should make a big push for an All-Star selection and the Most Improved Player of the Year award. The guard has made three starts with Ivey inactive this season, and Cunningham has been brilliant in those tilts, with 65.3 DraftKings PPG. With Ivey off the floor this season, Cunningham’s usage has risen 2.4 percentage points to 34%, and his assist rate has increased 5.4 percentage points to 49%, resulting in 1.5 DraftKings PPM for the guard, via the On/Off Tool.
Facing a subpar Hornets defense that ranks 17th in efficiency, Cunningham should surpass five-times value with ease and is core play for this slate.
Top Value: Stephen Castle at Denver Nuggets – $3,400
Castle is the No.1 value in our ShotQuality projections with Jeremy Sochan (back) sidelined. Castle has started in all 12 of the games Sochan has missed this season and has produced 25.9 DraftKings points in 30.2 minutes per game with the starting job. Castle generates 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a 22% usage rate with Sochan off the court, and this matchup with the Nuggets carries the highest total on the slate (237.5 points).
Denver ranks 20th in defensive efficiency, and Castle is good chalk to embrace at this near-minimum price tag.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: CJ McCollum vs. Washington Wizards – $7,500
McCollum is a very appealing target with the Wizards in town. Washington ranks fourth in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Pelicans boast their highest implied team total of the season (119.5 points). This is their season high by nearly five points, and McCollum should top 40 DraftKings points in this dream matchup.
McCollum handles a 28.8% usage rate with both Zion Williamson (out, hamstring) and Brandon Ingram (out, ankle) off the floor, and McCollum is amassing 43.6 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 112 points this season (five games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Malik Beasley vs. Charlotte Hornets – $5,500
Beasley is a steal at this price tag that simply doesn’t reflect his role with Ivey sidelined. In the three games the shooting guard has missed this season, Beasley is generating 43.7 DraftKings points in 39.7 minutes per game. This is by far the biggest production increase for a Piston in this situation, and Beasley’s terrific outside shooting gives him great upside whenever he sees big minutes.
Beasley is shooting 41% from beyond the arc this season and is knocking down 4.9 three-pointers per 36 minutes. At this affordable salary, the veteran can be trusted for all formats.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey Murphy vs. Washington Wizards – $7,300
Murphy has recorded at least 39 DraftKings points in five of his last six starts, and he is a great way to attack the Pelicans tonight. Murphy is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 24.5% usage rate with Williamson and Ingram off the court this season, and this matchup vs. the Wizards is perfect for Murphy’s gunner mentality.
The 24-year-old is averaging 8.4 three-point attempts per game, and Washington is allowing the fifth most made three-pointers in the NBA. This game presents the second-highest total on the slate (233 points), and Murphy has eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in each of the past two games; he has competed in a total of at least 230 points.
Top Value: Christian Braun vs. San Antonio Spurs – $5,000
The Nuggets sport the highest implied team total on the slate with the Spurs in town (122.5 points,) and Braun is a terrific, cheap way to gain access to Denver. Aaron Gordon (calf) will miss his 16th game of the season tonight, and in those first 15, Braun supplied 28.6 DraftKings points in 34.2 minutes per game, via the On/Off Tool.
Braun is too cheap for this type of volume and one of the best forward values on the board.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Houston Rockets – $10,200
Tatum was incredible in last night’s road win over the Timberwolves, pouring in 64.5 DraftKings points across 38 minutes. Both Jaylen Brown (shoulder) and Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) missed this game, and there is a strong chance at least one of them will sit again on Friday. With Porzingis getting a workout in at shoot-around yesterday, he feels likely to play tonight, as the Celtics likely decided to save Porzingis for Friday, as they knew they would be without Al Horford for this game, given the veteran doesn’t play both legs of back-to-back sets.
Brown, on the other hand, is more of a question mark, and if he sits, Tatum will be unlocked as one of the best plays on the slate. Brown handles a 30% usage rate and when he has been inactive this season, Tatum has exposed his opponents for 55.8 DraftKings PPG with a 34% usage rate (five games), via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Cam Whitmore vs. Boston Celtics – $3,900
Whitmore should thrive off the bench for the Rockets tonight with Amen Thompson suspended. With the wing out Wednesday vs. the Mavericks, Whitmore finished 25.75 DraftKings across 24 minutes. This wasn’t the first time Whitmore has taken advantage of some extra playing time either. Dillon Brooks missed three straight games last week, and Whitmore scored at least 32 DraftKings points in two of those games.
Whitmore is an instant offense player who is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a team-high 28.3% usage rate this season, and with our ShotQuality projections slating him for 24 minutes of work tonight, Whitmore is an elite punt play.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. San Antonio Spurs – $12,200
With Gordon remaining unavailable, Jokic continues to be a must-play. The center is coming off a 72.75 DraftKings points triple-double vs. the Hawks, and Jokic is now amassing 73.5 DraftKings PPG for the 12 starts he has made without Gordon this season. Jokic has topped 70 DraftKings points in eight of those 12 games, and with Gordon off the court this season, Jokic is scoring a jaw-dropping 2.0 DraftKings PPM, behind a 2.2 percentage point increase to his usage.
As noted above, Denver carries the highest implied team total on the slate (122.5 points) and them being on their home floor is also a boost. The likelihood of Jokic leading this slate in scoring by a wide margin is very high, and building around the center tonight is a must for all formats. In our ShotQuality projections, Jokic’s ceiling is the highest on the slate by nearly 12 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Jonas Valanciunas at New Orleans Pelicans – $5,100
Valanciunas has received a consistent role off the bench for the Wizards recently and it has translated into great numbers for the veteran. With 23.2 minutes per game in his last five, Valanciunas has provided 36.2 DraftKings PPG. The big man is leading Washington with 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season and one could certainly suggest that the Wizards are showcasing Valanciunas right now, with him being a hot name in trade rumors and the deadline approaching.
This matchup against Valanciunas’ former team in the Pelicans is also elite. This New Orleans defense that ranks second-to-last in efficiency is giving up the second-most points in the paint and the fourth-most rebounds this season. Valanciunas has a ceiling of over 40 DraftKings points in this spot and is a stellar bargain at his $5,100 price tag.
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