Friday presents a seven-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at New York Knicks – $10,400
Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP candidate this season and is a very safe choice tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander ranks fifth in the NBA in usage rate (33.9%), and he is scoring 1.5 DraftKings PPM this season. Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are coming off a loss to the Cavaliers and visit the Knicks tonight, who have won seven of their last 10.
Under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden, this is expected to be a nail-biter, with Oklahoma City only favored by 3.5 points. Gilgeous-Alexander should see huge minutes in this setting and is a great value. In the Thunder’s seven games that have presented a spread of less than five points this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is amassing 55.6 DraftKings PPG, and he has topped 50 DraftKings in all but one of these games, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Cason Wallace at New York Knicks – $3,600
Wallace is rating as the No.1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections and is another great way to attack this marquee matchup between the Thunder and Knicks. Wallace has started the last three games for Oklahoma City and produced 21.6 DraftKings points in 32.7 minutes per game. This is a huge lift from the 26.6 minutes per game the guard is averaging for the season, and continuing to start Wallace makes sense tonight.
Wallace is a strong perimeter defender and he is the Thunder’s best option to match up with Jalen Brunson with Alex Caruso (hip) sidelined. Wallace will be a very appealing punt if he remains a starter, but be sure to check Oklahoma City’s starting lineup before this game via FantasyLabs’ NBA account, as Mark Daigneault has a tendency to sometimes tweak his starting five.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Paul George at New Orleans Pelicans – $7,500
George (groin) will return from a one-game absence tonight, while Joel Embiid (foot) remains out. The center ranks second in the league in usage rate and with Embiid missing, George sees a huge upgrade to his workload. In the 11 starts the veteran has made with Embiid inactive, George’s usage rate has increased a team-high 2.8 percentage points to 28.3%, and his assist rate has jumped a team-high 6.0 percentage points to 30%, resulting in 37.5 DraftKings PPG for George, via the On/Off Tool.
Facing a beat-up Pelicans team that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency this season, George is a threat for over 40 DraftKings points and is rating as a top-10 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Coby White vs. Washington Wizards – $6,600
Having exposure to the Bulls is a must tonight and White is the best way to gain access. Hosting the Wizards, who rank fourth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, Chicago carries the highest implied team total on the slate by six points (127.25 points). Given the Bulls rank second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, this game’s total is also the largest on the board by nearly 13 points (242.5 points).
This tilt is going to produce many large fantasy scores, and White should be one of them. Ayo Dosunmu (calf) remains unavailable, and in the seven starts White has made without Dosunmu this season, White is averaging 38.5 DraftKings points in 34.4 minutes per game.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,300
The Celtics return home after a four-game west coast road trip tonight to face a Kings team that ranks seventh in pace. Boston’s implied team total ranks second on the slate (121.25 points), and Tatum should be hungry to have a big outing. Former NBA player Brandon Jennings recently called Tatum the softest Celtics superstar ever on a podcast, and Tatum responded with a cryptic Instagram post mocking Jennings. Tatum isn’t one to respond to criticism, so this comment clearly bothered hi,m and tonight will be his first start since the incident.
Tatum is leading the Celtics with a 30.9% usage rate and 1.5 DraftKings PPM this season, and he should be ultra-aggressive tonight to post a huge stat line. When playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, Tatum is amassing 54.2 DraftKings PPG (17 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Tyrese Martin at Denver Nuggets – $5,200
Martin is too cheap for his current role for the depleted Nets. Cam Thomas (hamstring), Cameron Johnson (ankle), and D’Angelo Russell (shin) all remain out, and with these three inactive this season, Martin is supplying 27.4 DraftKings points in 28.7 minutes per game with a 23% usage rate (four games).
The Nuggets are a friendly matchup – they rank 19th in defensive efficiency – and Martin should score a minimum of 25 DraftKings points in this spot.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Hart vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $7,800
Hart has awesome, with over 40 DraftKings points in six of his last 10 starts, including a pair of triple-doubles, and he should rise to the occasion tonight with the Thunder in town. Defeating this 30-6 club would be huge for the Knicks in proving they’re a legitimate contender, and Hart should barely leave the floor in this tight 3.5-point spread.
Hart has competed at home and in a spread of five points or less three times this season, and he is contributing 43.8 DraftKings PPG on those occasions.
Top Value: Kyle Kuzma at Chicago Bulls – $6,400
Kuzma is worth taking a shot on in GPPs in this elite spot vs. the Bulls. As noted above, Chicago ranks second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and Kuzma finished with 40.75 DraftKings points when these two clubs met in November. The forward’s results have been up and down recently since returning from a 12-game absence due to a calf injury, but Kuzma has seen over 30 minutes in two of his last three games, which is an encouraging sign that he is back to full strength.
Kuzma is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM with a 27% usage rate this season, and he brings a much better upside than his salary suggests.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Brooklyn Nets – $12,300
Jokic has missed two games in a row with an illness and is questionable for tonight, but if the big man plays, he will be worth attacking at this slate-high salary. Aaron Gordon (calf) is doubtful, and in the 14 starts Jokic has made without Gordon this season, the three-time MVP has been unbelievable with 74.8 DraftKings PPG. Thanks to increases to all his rates, Jokic produces a whopping 2.0 DraftKings PPM with Gordon off the floor this season, via the On/Off Tool.
The Nuggets being favored by 15 points suggests that the oddsmakers believe Jokic will be back tonight, and while the large spread is a concern, it could result in low ownership for the center, and if Denver runs away with a win, it almost certainly will come via a huge Jokic performance. Decimated by injuries, the Nets rank 28th in defensive rating this month.
Top Value: Guerschon Yabusele at New Orleans Pelicans – $5,500
In addition to Embiid, the 76ers will be without Andre Drummond (toe) tonight, leaving Yabusele as Philadelphia’s primary big man in this excellent matchup with the Pelicans. With Embiid and Drummond out for the last two, Yabusele has started and finished with 33 DraftKings points vs. the Suns and 43.5 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards.
The French professional has logged 34.8 minutes per game in these tilts, and he should thrive against this New Orleans defense that is giving up the second-most points in the paint and the fourth-most rebounds. Yabusele is clearly underpriced for his current role and is a player who can be rostered with full confidence.
