Friday presents two different main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKing’s main slate with feature the first 11 games in action tonight, while FanDuel only includes the first eight games.
The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Atlanta Hawks – 10,200 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
The Pacers host the Hawks tonight, and this matchup boasts the highest total the NBA has seen this season at a whopping 262.5 points. Additionally, this game is expected to be a nail-biter, with Indiana only favored by three points, via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
When these two teams met back in November, the game produced an insane 309 points, and having plenty of exposure to tonight’s rematch is a must. Coming into this contest in tremendous form, Haliburton ranks second only to Joel Embiid as the best option on the slate.
Haliburton is generating 63.4 DraftKings PPG in his last six starts and exploded for a season-best 78.25 DraftKings points in that first matchup between the Pacers and Hawks in November. Plus, for the 16 occasions the guard has competed in a spread under five points this season, Haliburton has exceeded 60 DraftKings points 10 times.
Top Value: Jose Alvarado vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Trey Murphy (knee) is questionable tonight, and if the forward misses his fourth in a row, Alvarado will have appeal at these low salaries. With Murphy sidelined for these last three games, Alvarado has been very productive off the bench, collecting 23.1 DraftKings points in 22.9 minutes per game.
The guard produces 0.91 DraftKings PPM with Murphy off the floor and would have strong chance to surpass 20 fantasy points if Murphy sits again, even against this Clippers’ defense that ranks 12th in efficiency.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Washington Wizards – $9,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
The Cavs running away with a blowout win limited Mitchell’s minutes vs. the Wizards on Wednesday, and while that is obviously a risk again for tonight’s rematch with Washington, Mitchell’s ceiling is still worth chasing in GPPs. The guard had topped 50 DraftKings points in five straight starts before Wednesday and would almost certainly do so tonight if this game stays somewhat competitive.
Mitchell is leading the Cavs with 1.4 DraftKings PPM with both Darius Garland (out, jaw) and Evan Mobely (out, knee) off the floor this season, and this Wizards’ team is one of the best matchups in the league, with them ranking second in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. As a result, the Cavs carry their highest implied team total of the year at 124.75 points.
Over the last two years, Mitchell is amassing 52.25 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points (six games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Caris LeVert vs. Washington Wizards – $6,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
While better suited for GPPs, LeVert brings a terrific ceiling relative to his salaries and is going to get overlooked as a bench player. The wing tore the Wizards up for 40.5 DraftKings on Wednesday, which is the fourth time in his last six that LeVert has finished with over 40 DraftKings points. With Garland and Mobley off the floor this season, LeVert ranks second only to Mitchell in usage (28.5%) and DraftKings PPM (1.2) for the Cavs, via the On/Off Tool.
With Cleveland carrying their highest implied team total of the season (124.75 points), both LeVert and Mitchell exceeding 5x value is absolutely possible in this dream matchup vs. the Wizards. Via FantasyLabs’ Models, the two teammates positively correlate this season.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at New Orleans Pelicans – $8,600 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
While this is a tough matchup, with the Pelicans ranking seven in defensive efficiency, Leonard is simply too cheap for how well he has been playing. The veteran is coming off a 53.5 DraftKings point effort in a win over the Suns on Wednesday, in which he logged 40 minutes, which is a testament that Leonard is in great condition right now.
That performance marked the third time in his last five starts that Leonard has eclipsed 50 DraftKings points, and he should see another hefty workload tonight, with the Clippers only favored by one point. Leonard brings a ceiling of over 50 fantasy points despite this tough matchup and shouldn’t be popular for this huge slate.
Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo at Philadelphia 76ers – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
After erupting for 61.5 DraftKings points vs. the Pacers on Saturday, DiVincenzo has been solid in his first two games alongside OG Anunoby, scoring 27.1 DraftKings PPG, with a 22.75% usage rate. Anunoby has never commanded a large usage rate throughout his career, and with Immanuel Qucikley and RJ Barrett now in Toronto following the Anunoby deal, DiVincenzo should see a healthy usage rate on a night basis.
With Quickley and Barrett off the floor this season, DiVincenzo’s usage rate has risen 4.8 percentage points to 23%, and he has scored 1.2 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. DiVincenzo is underpriced for life without Quickley and Barrett and is a viable target at these affordable salaries.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Utah Jazz – $8,100 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Porzingis has been a force as of late, posting at least 49 DraftKings points in four of his past five starts, and meets a Jazz defense tonight that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency. Plus, they are allowing the second most blocks in the league this season (6.3), which bodes well for Porzingis, with him swatting an eye-popping 13 shots in his last five starts.
The Celtics’ implied team total ranks third on the slate (126.25 points), and while they are the largest favorites on the slate at 14 points, Porzingis could easily be one of the main reasons they blowout Utah, and he is worth raking a chance on in large tournaments.
Top Value: Jalen Johnson at Indiana Pacers – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Johnson is one of the best affordable ways to attack this season-high total between the Hawks and Pacers. The forward has been on a tear, scoring 46.9 DraftKings points in 33.7 minutes per game in his last three, with a 22% usage rate, which is a notable spike from his 18% average for the season. This increased role can mostly be attributed to Deandre Hunter (knee) being sidelined, who will remain out tonight.
Johnson is contributing 1.2 DraftKings PPM with Hunter off the floor this season and should continue to flourish in this beautiful spot vs. the Pacers, who lead the league in pace, rank 26th in defensive efficiency, and are giving up the most points in the paint in the NBA.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. New York Knicks – $11,500 DraftKings, $12,600 FanDuel
No one in the NBA is playing better basketball than Embiid right now, and his dominance should continue against the Knicks. Embiid leads the league in usage this season (39%) and has posted over 70 DraftKings points in four of his past five starts. New York ranks 22nd in defensive rating since they lost Mitchell Robinson (ankle) for the season 13 games ago, and Embiid will be at home, where he has been 2.1 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road this season.
Another outing over 70 DraftKings points is a fair expectation for Embiid tonight, and while priced more appropriately on FanDuel, the center is inexcusably underpriced at $11,500 on DraftKings and is a core play on that site.
At that price point, Embiid is rating as a top-five value on the slate in FantasyLabs’ models.
Top Value: Jalen Smith vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Since being inserted into the Pacers’ first unit five games ago, Smith has scored over 25 DraftKings points three times. The veteran is providing 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season and while his minutes have been tough to predict, Smith should find himself in the 20-25 minute range against this Hawks team that starts Johnson and Clint Capela in their frontcourt.
Smith’s floor is shaky, but the big man absolutely has the potential to beat these salaries in this elite setting vs. the Hawks and should come with little ownership in GPPs.
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