The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant at Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
On Friday’s five-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Morant has the second-highest ceiling projection at any position and the highest ceiling projection at point guard. He and the Grizzlies roll into Minnesota for the game with the second-highest over/under on the slate, giving Memphis the second-highest implied team total.
It should be a good matchup for Morant since Minnesota has been generous to opposing point guards. The Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the NBA over the past 15 games, so even though it isn’t a pace-up spot, it should be a game with plenty of points since both teams rank in the top six in Pace for the season.
Morant has missed a few games but has been excellent when available, scoring at least 22 points in each of his last 11 games and averaging 28.5 points along with 7.6 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.0 steal per contest. He is coming off his best game of 2023 after a good performance in Wednesday night’s loss to Golden State. In that game, he had 29 points, 12 assists, 55.8 FanDuel points and 58 DraftKings points.
Earlier this season, Ja had 57 DraftKings points in an 11-point win against the Timberwolves but only 40.75 DraftKings points in an eight-point loss in their most recent meeting.
If you have the salary to spend at point guard, Morant is the option that brings the highest ceiling on this slate.
Morant’s over 44.5 points + rebounds + assists looks appealing on PrizePicks. You can get a deposit of up to $100 with PrizePicks promo code LABS.
Top Value: T.J. McConnell vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $6,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
McConnell has been outstanding while filling in for the injured Tyrese Haliburton (elbow, knee).
He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard on DraftKings and the second-highest at both shooting guard and point guard on FanDuel. He also ranks in the top six on both sites for the entire slate, showing that even though he isn’t a bargain option, he can bring plenty of value.
Since Haliburton has been sidelined, McConnell has averaged 16.0 points, 8.6 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game with at least 40 DraftKings points in four of those eight contests. He doesn’t have to score a ton of points to be productive due to his other numbers but he has chipped in at least 13 points in six of the eight games.
McConnell has been especially effective while moving into the starting lineup for his three most recent games. He had 50 FanDuel points and 55.5 DraftKings points in a triple-double game against the Suns last Saturday, stacking 10 rebounds and 12 assists on top of 18 points. He followed that up with 20 points, 10 assists and 45.75 DraftKings points against the Bulls before cooling off a little with 17 points, eight assists and 30.75 DraftKings points against Orlando on Wednesday.
With Andrew Nembhard (illness), Myles Turner (ankle) and Aaron Nesmith (wrist) all questionable, McConnell’s role is still a little uncertain, so stay tuned to the News Page for updates leading up to game time. It looks like he’ll be a good value at this price, though, as he and the Pacers try to take down the Bucks.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
The highest ceiling projection at shooting guard and small forward on DraftKings belongs to Edwards, who checks in with the second-highest ceiling projection at both spots on FanDuel. The Timberwolves’ third-year wing has been magnificent this season, especially since the injury to Karl-Anthony Towns (calf). He no longer has an injury tag but has done all of his great work while playing through a questionable tag almost every night due to a hip contusion suffered all the way back on Dec. 30. Despite the injury. He has yet to miss a game this season.
Even with his salary on the rise over the past few weeks, he has outperformed salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his past eight games by an average Plus/Minus of 9.55 FanDuel points.
Edwards has posted over 44 DraftKings points in seven of those eight games, averaging 29.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 2.1 steals in 37.5 minutes per game with a 33.2% usage rate. In a game that is expected to be high scoring, he brings an elite ceiling and still comes at a price that makes him a solid value.
Top Value: Aaron Wiggins – $3,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Wiggins has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel and is in the top 10 for the entire slate. On DraftKings, Wiggins is actually only available as a small forward, but he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player at that position and the third-highest on the whole slate.
Trying to figure out the Thunder’s rotation on a nightly basis can be challenging since they continue to try new combinations and lineups to see what players can bring to the table. Wiggins should be in an expanded role for this contest, though, with Luguentz Dort (hamstring) out.
When given minutes and opportunity, Wiggins has proven he can produce. On Wednesday, he only needed 14 minutes to put up 20 DraftKings points on nine points, four rebounds, two assists and a steal.
At so close to the minimum salary, Wiggins won’t have to do much to return value while saving salary to stuff stars into other slots in your lineup.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes at Golden State Warriors – $7,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
The Raptors are on the West Coast to take on the Warriors on Friday. Since Golden State plays so fast, Toronto has the second-highest Pace Differential on the slate, which should allow their stars like Barnes and Pascal Siakam (discussed below) extra opportunities to shine. Barnes is in the top six in ceiling projection at both forward spots on FanDuel, and on DraftKings, he ranks in the top three at each of those positions, behind only Edwards at small forward.
Barnes has outproduced salary-based expectations in six of his past eight games on main slates. In his past 10 contests overall, he has averaged 42.0 DraftKings points in 36.8 minutes per game on 18.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocked shots per game. He has over 45 FanDuel points in seven of those 10 games and has shown the ability to stuff the stat sheet in multiple ways with scoring, assists, defensive numbers or all of the above.
He only scored seven points on Wednesday but still handed out 10 assists in the Raptors’ comfortable win over the Kings. With so many different ways he can produce, he brings a high ceiling to what should be an entertaining late game on Friday.
Top Value: Pat Connaughton at Indiana Pacers – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
While the Bucks will likely have their “Big Three” back in place for this matchup in Indiana, Bobby Portis (knee) is out, and Khris Middleton is still not fully ready to carry his normal workload. As a result, Connaughton should be in an expanded role and offer good value.
He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings (behind only Wiggins) and the fourth-highest at the position on FanDuel. Connaughton also brings shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, where he brings the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
On Wednesday, in the Bucks’ first game without Portis, Connaughton played 38 minutes and was extremely efficient, going 7-of-8 from the field, including five three-pointers and finishing with 19 points to go with 11 rebounds for 41.4 FanDuel points and 44.5 DraftKings points. That was definitely a ceiling game for PatCon, but even if he doesn’t get all the way to that level, he should get enough chances to return value.
He has over 27 DraftKings points in three of his past four games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Indiana Pacers – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Especially since the Bucks have the highest implied team total on the board and are in the game with the highest over/under, it’s no surprise that Giannis has the highest ceiling projection on the entire slate.
After missing five games with knee soreness, the newly-named All-Star captain has shown no signs of rust. He had over 50 DraftKings points in his return even though he only played 27 minutes and then followed that up with 33 points, 14 rebounds, four assists, three steals, 55.8 FanDuel points and 59.5 DraftKings points on Wednesday against the Nuggets.
On the season, Antetokounmpo has been outstanding whenever he has been available, averaging 1.74 DraftKings points and 1.62 FanDuel points per minute on 31.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game.
On this slate, his projections actually indicate he’s a good value at this salary. In fact, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel, which is rare for a player with such an elevated salary.
Top Value: Kyle Anderson vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
We’ll go back to Minnesota for another value option and take a look at Anderson, who has been a versatile contributor with a good ceiling while in the starting lineup. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel and can flex to small forward on both sites if that helps your lineup construction.
Anderson’s production can vary based on the matchup, but he bounced back nicely from a couple of down games with 32.1 FanDuel points on Wednesday against the Pelicans. Before two down games in an awkward matchup for him against Houston, he had three straight double-doubles with over 49 DraftKings points in each of those games against the Jazz, Nuggets and Raptors.
The fact that he bounced back against the Pelicans makes his silence against Houston look like an outlier and puts him back on the radar as a strong value play in this matchup with his former team, the Grizzlies.
Center
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Golden State Warriors – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Spicy P has the second-highest ceiling projection of all centers on DraftKings, behind only Giannis, and has the highest ceiling projection of all centers on FanDuel, along with the second-highest at power forward, behind only Giannis.
While he has been right around his salary-based expectations on DraftKings, he has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his past 10 games, including each of his past three contests.
Siakam has over 45 DraftKings points and FanDuel points in seven of his past 10 games. He has been producing across multiple stat categories, averaging 24.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.2 blocks per game over that 10-game stretch.
His athleticism should allow him to stay on the court even against the Warriors, and he had 27 points and 41.75 DraftKings points in 37 minutes in the first meeting between these teams.
Top Value: Xavier Tillman Sr. at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
If you decide to go cheap at center, Tillman has a ton of upside to consider while he helps to fill in for Steven Adams (knee). He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the highest of any center with a salary under $6K on DraftKings and under $7K on FanDuel.
Tillman started against the Kings and had 10 points, six boards and 27.2 FanDuel points on Monday but then returned to the bench on Wednesday against the Warriors. He still had 17 FanDuel points in 13 minutes off the bench, with three points, three steals and five rebounds.
Especially if the Grizz go back to Tillman in the starting lineup for his size against Rudy Gobert, he makes a good value play. Even if he backs up Brandon Clarke again, there’s still enough upside to consider taking a flier on him if you need to save salary at center.
Get $100 Sign-up Bonus!
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS: 5 Rules for Attacking the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
NBA DFS (Thursday, Nov. 3): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS (Friday, Nov. 25): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 14): Is Jordan Poole a Must-Play?
