For Friday night, both DraftKings and FanDuel’s main slates will feature the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Atlanta Hawks – $11,300 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
Kyrie Irving (thumb) is listed as questionable, but he didn’t participate in the shoot-around this morning, meaning he will likely miss his second straight game tonight. Not only does Doncic get a massive boost playing without Irving, but this is an incredible spot, with the Hawks ranking fifth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency. Doncic is averaging a whopping 69.8 DraftKings PPG for the 15 starts he has made without Irving this season, and this matchup with the Hawks tonight sports the highest total on the slate (244.5 points). Furthermore, the Mavs’ implied team total is the second largest on the board (123.5 points) despite Irving’s absence, showing you how strong of a matchup this truly is.
Doncic brings the highest ceiling to our NBA models and is worth every penny tonight.
The early runs of our simulations in our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator are also very high on Doncic.
Top Value: Dennis Schroder vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
With Immanuel Quickley (quad) out tonight, Schroder should enter the Raptors’ starting five, making him a solid value at these price points. In 263 minutes, Schroder has played without Quickley, Jakob Poeltl (out, ankle), and OG Anunoby – who was traded to New York for Quickley – Schroder’s usage and assist rates have increased 2.0 and 2.3 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.04 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Schroder should log right around 30 minutes with Quickley absent, and while this is a subpar matchup with the Clippers ranking 11th in defensive efficiency, Schroder is simply underpriced for that type of volume.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Indiana Pacers – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Booker is coming off one of his best showings of the season, destroying the Mavs for 65.25 DraftKings points Wednesday night, marking his fourth effort over 50 DraftKings points in his last seven starts. Looking to carry this momentum over, Booker is in a prime spot tonight, visiting the Pacers, who lead the league in pace and rank 25th in defensive efficiency. The Suns carry the highest total on the slate (124 points) and this tilt presents the second highest total on the board (243.5 points), via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Booker has been slightly more productive on the road this season and when he has been away from Phoenix and playing in a total of at least 235 points, the guard has been a stud with 53.5 DraftKings PPG (six games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Jalen Green at Charlotte Hornets – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
The Hornets are the worst defense in the league in terms of efficiency, and Green is rating as a strong value in this spot. The guard ranks second on the Rockets in usage this season (27.3%) and is fresh off a 38 DraftKings points outing vs. the Blazers.
Green posted 38 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with the Hornets and brings similar upside tonight at an affordable cost.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: RJ Barrett vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Barrett should be the primary beneficiary with Quickley sidelined tonight. In 115 minutes Barrett has played sans Qucikley since both were traded to the Raptors, Barrett’s assist rate has leaped 8.1 percentage points, lifting him to 1.3 DraftKings PPM. Barrett is amassing 39.3 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts and just tallied 36.25 DraftKings points against this same Clippers team two weeks ago. With an increased role this time around, Barrett has 40 fantasy point upside.
Top Value: Brandon Miller vs. Houston Rockets – $6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
With Terry Rozier now in Miami, Miller is going to put up strong numbers on a nightly basis, and we need to attack him now before his salary gets too high. In his first start since the Rozier deal, Miller scored 41.25 DraftKings points across 38.5 minutes vs. the Pistons on Wednesday. The rookie is now generating 40 DraftKings points in his past four starts, and on top of Rozier being out of town, Gordon Hayward (calf) and Mark Williams (back) remain out for the Hornets.
With those three players off the floor this season, Miller’s usage has risen 2.6 percentage points to 24.4%, and he has produced 0.92 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. While this matchup isn’t ideal, with the Rockets ninth in defensive efficiency, Miller is too cheap for his current form and role.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,000 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
While FanDuel slightly increased Antetokounmpo’s salary, DraftKings didn’t adjust his price tag at all after his second straight triple-double over 80 DraftKings points Wednesday. This $11,000 salary on DraftKings is laughably low for Antetokounmpo, and he needs to be one of your core plays on the site for tonight’s rematch with the Cavs. Antetokounmpo is averaging 72 DraftKings points in his two meetings with Cleveland this season and has scored over 60 DraftKings points in seven of his past 10 starts entering tonight.
As we saw Wednesday, Antetokounmpo likely feels revitalized with Adrian Griffin no longer being his coach, and he should destroy the Cavs for another massive stat line tonight.
Top Value: Georges Niang at Milwaukee Bucks – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
With Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee) sidelined, Niang has been an efficient scorer off the bench for the Cavs, scoring at least 20 DraftKings points in eight of his last 12 games, including a 44.25 DraftKings points eruption vs. the same Bucks’ club he will face tonight. Milwaukee ranks third in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency this season, and tonight’s matchup carries the fourth-highest total on the slate (237.5 points) and a spread of only 5.5 points in favor of the Bucks.
Especially at less than $4,000 on DraftKings, Niang is a compelling, cheap way to gain a share of this elite environment.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Jarrett Allen at Milwaukee Bucks – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Allen has been a force against the Bucks this season, scoring at least 44 DraftKings points in all three of his matchups with the club. The center has surpassed 40 DraftKings points in six of his last 10 starts overall and is supplying 45.1 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 235 points this season (seven games), via the Trends Tool.
Allen’s salaries clearly don’t reflect the upside he brings tonight, and he is rating as a top-three value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA models.
Top Value: Wendell Carter Jr. at Memphis Grizzlies – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
After dealing with injuries to start the season, Carter Jr. is finally starting to look like his old self, collecting 33.5 DraftKings PPG in his last four. The center’s resurgence has earned him his starting role back, and as a starter for the last two games, Carter has logged 30.3 minutes per game. While this Grizzlies defense he faces tonight ranks eighth in efficiency, they are giving up the fourth most rebounds this season, making this a solid matchup for a big man like Carter Jr.
The 24-year-old is a solid bet for a double-double tonight and is one of the better mid-tier values on the slate.
