The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: CJ McCollum at Detroit Pistons – $9,400 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
On Friday’s nine-game slate, there is a trio of elite point guards who are tightly clustered with the three highest ceiling projections at the position. McCollum is significantly cheaper than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Trae Young, though, and he also has what may be the best matchup of the three as he and the Pelicans land in Detroit to take on the Pistons, who have the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA.
With Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Brandon Ingram (toe) still sidelined, McCollum has been running the show for the Pelicans. He has made double-digit field-goal attempts in each of his last four games while shooting 52.2% from the field and scoring at least 28 points in each of those four contests. He averaged 32.0 points 4.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.3 blocked shots in those games, producing an average of 49 DraftKings points in 34.4 minutes per game.
On the season, he has a 27% usage rate, but he has been over that percentage in six of his past seven games, with at least a usage rate of 34% in each of his past three games. With more work coming his way in this great matchup, McCollums is definitely worth considering building around.
Top Value: T.J. McConnell vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
For value on this slate, you can’t look past the Pacers’ backcourt, according to Projected Plus/Minus. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, the top two value plays on the entire slate are McConnell and Andrew Nembhard (discussed below) as they try to fill in for Tyrese Haliburton (elbow, knee), who will be out at least the next two weeks.
McConnell has been effective when asked to step up this season but is only averaging 17.2 minutes per game. He hasn’t started a game all season, but that could change in this matchup against Atlanta. Whether he keeps coming off the bench or gets into the starting five, he should get enough run to return good value. He has never been a high-scoring option but does a great job filling in all the other categories on the stat sheet.
On Wednesday, in the game in which Haliburton was hurt, McConnell played 26 minutes, just the second time he has played more than 25 minutes all season. He finished with 14 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, two steals, 38 DraftKings points and 39.1 FanDuel points. In the other game in which he played more than 25 minutes, McConnell posted a double-double with 19 points, 10 assists, 47.75 DraftKings points and 46 FanDuel points against the Magic.
With so much upside available as he steps into a larger role, McConnell is poised to outproduce his very affordable salary.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine at Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
The Bulls have the biggest Pace Differential on the board as they visit the Thunder on Friday night, and Oklahoma City will be playing for the second night in a row, which may impact their rotation. LaVine has the highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only SGA, who has dual eligibility on the site.
LaVine has been locked in lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight games with a Plus/Minus of over 10 FanDuel points in each of those four contests. He has at least 27 points and 48 DraftKings points in each of those four games while averaging 35.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.3 steals for 53.2 DraftKings points per game.
With DeMar DeRozan (quad) set to miss a second straight game, LaVine should have the ultimate green light in this great matchup against the Thunder, who play at a fast enough pace to give Chicago the biggest Pace Differential on the slate.
Top Value: Andrew Nembhard vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Nembhard has already been in the starting lineup and producing some nice stat lines, but his role will likely see a huge increase with Haliburton hurt. With Haliburton off the floor, Nembhard’s usage jumps from 13.9% to 16.6%, his DraftKings points per minute increases from 0.71 to 0.91, and his FanDuel production goes from 0.68 points per minute to 0.89 points per minute.
Haliburton missed two games in December, and Nembhard went off for big games on the road against Portland and Golden State. He had 16 points, eight assists, seven rebounds and 37 DraftKings points against the Trail Blazers and followed that up with one of his best games of the season, producing 64.5 DraftKings points on 31 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds against the Warriors.
While he may not quite reach that incredibly high level of production, the extra work coming his way in a favorable matchup should make him a key building block on Friday.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard vs. Denver Nuggets – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
With Paul George (hamstring) sidelined for this contest, it’s likely we get another look at peak Kawhi, who has been reminding everyone of why he can be one of the best fantasy options in the NBA over his past two contests.
He has been limited to 19 games this season and played limited minutes in many of those contests, but he has kicked things into another gear in each of his two most recent contests. Against the Hawks on Sunday, he dropped 29 points and 49.4 FanDuel points, and then he followed that up with an even better performance Tuesday against the Mavericks. In that game, he piled up 62.8 FanDuel points on 33 points, nine rebounds, four assists, four steals and a blocked shot in his 36 minutes. He led the Clippers to a nice 12-point win while finishing with over 40 FanDuel points for the fifth time in his last six games.
Leonard brings the highest ceiling projection at small forward on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings behind only LaVine. He makes sense, especially on FanDuel, where he’s a little cheaper and has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 contests.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Golden State Warriors – $6,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Johnson brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at both small forward and power forward on FanDuel and the third-highest at small forward on DraftKings. His Spurs host the Warriors in a game that has the highest over/under on the slate by a wide margin. The Warriors play at the fastest Pace in the NBA, and the Spurs also rank in the top 10.
After missing two games with a hamstring injury, Johnson returned on Wednesday and played 35 minutes. He finished with 24 points, four rebounds, three assists and 35 DraftKings points despite struggling a little with his shot, going just 6-of-17 from the field.
Prior to his injury, Johnson had at least 22 points and 30 DraftKings points in four straight games, averaging 27.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 36 DraftKings points during that nice little run.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Washington Wizards – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
On DraftKings, Randle has the highest projected ceiling of all the power forwards in play, while on FanDuel he has the third-highest ceiling projection behind Kawhi and Donatas Sabonis. Randle had been carrying the team while R.J. Barrett was sidelined, and he continued to post big numbers in Barrett’s return on Wednesday, finishing with 41.5 DraftKings points on 14 points and 16 rebounds.
That was Randle’s eighth straight double-double dating back to right after Christmas, and he has averaged 28.6 points and 14.1 rebounds over that stretch. Randle exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games with an averaged Plus/Minus of 7.29 DraftKings points.
In what should be a good spot against the Wizards, Randle should be a solid ceiling play to consider given how heavy his workload remains and how many rebounds he continues to coral on a nightly basis.
Top Value: Kenyon Martin Jr. at Sacramento Kings – $3,800 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
The Rockets visit the Kings in one of the two late games on the Friday night slate, and Martin is again projected to be a great value option at power forward. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel, trailing only Keldon Johnson, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings.
Martin has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his past five games but remains under $4K on both sites, making him a great way to save salary to afford bigger names in other spots but still get solid production.
On Wednesday, Martin had 21 points in the first game of this two-game set in Sacramento, finishing with 29.25 DraftKings points and 26.5 FanDuel points in his 27 minutes off the bench. He typically gets enough work off the bench to return good value at this salary and can go off with bigger totals like that if he gets extra run as he did on Wednesday.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Los Angeles Clippers – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Jokic was listed as questionable for this contest with the Clippers due to right wrist injury management, which is a new issue for the big man, who hasn’t missed any games since Nov. 20. He brings the highest ceiling projection on the entire slate, so he’s worth considering as long as he’s available. If he does sit out, Sabonis is an easy pivot with a lower but similar ceiling in the late game.
In his past eight games, Jokic has posted over 58 DraftKings points and over 53 FanDuel points in six contests while averaging 23.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 10.4 assists and 1.3 steals in 32.1 minutes per game. He only had to play 28 minutes on Wednesday against the Suns in a blowout win, but he still posted a near triple-double with 21 points, 18 rebounds and nine assists for 59 DraftKings points.
Jokic is an expensive piece to build around, but he definitely brings a very high ceiling if he’s active for this Western Conference matchup with Kawhi’s Clippers.
Top Value: Walker Kessler vs. Orlando Magic – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
The Jazz are giving Kessler plenty of opportunities to produce, and the rookie has stepped up with some very nice production lately. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Friday night.
Kessler moved back into the starting lineup on Tuesday in place of Kelly Olynyk (ankle), who is expected to miss at least a week. In his return to the lineup, Kessler had six points, 11 rebounds and 24.2 FanDuel points in a tough matchup with Cleveland. He showed a higher ceiling against Memphis last Sunday when he posted 10 points, 11 rebounds and six blocks on his way to 41.7 FanDuel points in 23 minutes.
In a good matchup against Orlando, Kessler brings that high ceiling and should be very active. The Jazz have the fourth-highest iImplied team total, and if he gets another start, he’ll be a very solid mid-range play to plug in at center.
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