For Friday night, DraftKings and FanDuel’s main slate will feature the first eight games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Maxey vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Facing the Hawks with Joel Embiid (knee) inactive Wednesday, Maxey flourished, posting 67 DraftKings points in an overtime win. This was by far the best matchup the 76ers have seen with Embiid unavailable this season. On tap for Friday is another prime spot with the center sidelined, going against the Kings, who rank 18th in defensive efficiency and 11th in pace. This game’s total is the second highest on the slate (241.5 points), and this one-point spread in favor of Sacramento is also the tightest on the board, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Maxey has seen a 33% usage rate with Embiid off the floor this season – which is a 5.5 percentage point increase from his average – and is leading the 76ers with 1.3 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. The guard brings a top-three ceiling on the slate in FantasyLabs’ Models and is underpriced for his upside.
Top Value: Jalen Suggs at Miami Heat – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
With Suggs slated to see minimal ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, according to our projections, the guard is an awesome GPP option. The reason for his low expected ownership is due to this slow matchup with the Heat, who rank 28th in pace.
That being said, Miami is a middle-of-the-pack defense this season, ranking 15th in efficiency. This game presents a tight spread of 3.5 points, and most importantly, Suggs is too cheap for his current role, with the Magic missing Franz Wagner (ankle), Gary Harris (calf), and Jonathan Isaac (illness). With these three players essentially unavailable for the last four – Wagner and Harris exited early in the first of these four games – Suggs has generated 35.1 DraftKings points in 32.1 minutes per game.
With Wagner missing, the Magic desperately need offensive firepower after Paolo Banchero, and with Wagner, Harris, and Isaac off the floor this season, Suggs’ usage has risen 2.9 percentage points to 24%, and he has scored 1.1 DraftKings PPM. The Heat are decimated by injuries themselves right now, and Suggs is a sneaky target tonight who has a ceiling of over 40 fantasy points.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $8,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Edwards and the Wolves are back home tonight after a four-game road trip. They will host the Blazers, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency and are playing their second game in two nights. There is blowout risk here, with Minnesota favored by 15.5 points, but they carry a high implied team total of 118.5 points.
If the Wolves do end up running away with a win, Edwards very well could be the main reason why. The wing is generating 47.6 DraftKings PPG at home this season – which is 6.6 more DraftKings PPG than when on the road – and he is amassing 51 DraftKings PPG for the three instances Minnesota has been favored by double-digits this season via the Trends Tool.
The large spread should keep Edwards’ ownership low. He is a sharp way to differentiate yourself in GPPs.
Top Value: Luke Kennard vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
While this is a less-than-ideal matchup with the Clippers ranking 10th in defensive efficiency, Kennard is underpriced for the role he should see with the Grizzlies so shorthanded. On top of Ja Morant (shoulder), Marcus Smart (finger), Santi Aldama (knee), and Derrick Rose (hamstring) are out tonight.
With Morant, Aldama, and Rose inactive and Smart missing most of the second half Tuesday, Kennard recorded 28.75 DraftKings points vs. the Mavericks. The sharpshooter should start tonight, and with those four players off the court, Kennard is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM due to a 5.4 percentage point increase in his usage rate via the On/Off Tool.
Kennard has topped 20 DraftKings points in eight of his last 12 games and is one of the best punts on the board at these cheap salaries.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Tobias Harris vs. Sacramento Kings – $7,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Just like Maxey, Harris thrived in a great spot vs. the Hawks with Embiid inactive Wednesday, going off for 54 DraftKings points. Harris is now averaging 37.1 DraftKings PPG for the eight starts he has made sans Embiid this season, which is an impressive number, considering the 76ers have faced a top-seven defense in five of these games. Overall, with Embiid off the court this season, Harris’ usage rises 4.0 percentage points, and he collects 1.1 DraftKings PPM.
Competing at home and in the second-highest total on the slate vs. the Kings tonight (241.5 points), Harris should effortlessly exceed 5x value and is a no-brainer.
Top Value: Vince Williams Jr. vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
With Smart joining Morant on the sidelines for at least the next six weeks, Williams Jr. is going to take on a much larger workload, and this might be the cheapest we see him for a while. Even with Smart available for roughly 1.5 of these last two games, Williams Jr. has produced 32.6 DraftKings points in 33 minutes per game. While not a natural point guard, the second-year player is going to handle the ball a ton tonight and should be one of the Grizzlies’ leaders in playing time, likely around 35 minutes.
Williams Jr.’s prowess on the defensive end gives him a solid ceiling, and he should score nothing less than 30 fantasy points with his team so depleted.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Charlotte Hornets – $9,100 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Despite having a vague minutes limit of around 25 minutes, Wembanyama has been a monster as of late, surpassing 50 DraftKings points in three straight starts. The rookie is contributing 1.6 DraftKings PPM with a 30.8% usage rate this season and is in a great spot to exceed 50 DraftKings points again tonight with the Hornets in town.
Charlotte ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency, and they are allowing the seventh most points in the paint. The Spurs’ implied team total is up to 119.75 points tonight, and Wembanyama has been a significant 6.0 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road thus far during his rookie campaign.
Expect another huge performance from Wembanyama tonight and attack him with confidence, especially at a very reasonable $9,100 on DraftKings.
Top Value: Marcus Morris Sr. vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
While Morris won’t start tonight, the veteran is a viable punt play at these low price points. In addition to Embiid, Robert Covington (knee) will miss his fifth straight tonight, and with these two unavailable for the last two, Morris has supplied 29 DraftKings PPG.
With a 4.1 percentage point boost to his usage rate, Morris provides 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Embiid and Covington off the floor this season. In this high total vs. the Kings, Morris should see right around 25 minutes off the bench and should tally at least 20 fantasy points.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic vs. Golden State Warriors – $7,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
After coming off the bench in his first two games back from a five-game absence due to an adductor injury, Vucevic was reinserted into the Bulls’ starting five Wednesday and posted 44.75 DraftKings points across 40 minutes in a difficult matchup vs. the Rockets, who rank third in defensive efficiency. The 40 minutes was a very encouraging sign and may be an indicator that the Bulls plan to showcase Vucevic heavily going forward with the trade deadline quickly approaching next month.
Nonetheless, he is very underpriced for being back in the Bulls’ first unit and is in a strong spot tonight, with the Warriors ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency. The center has exceeded 40 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is a terrific target for all formats.
Top Value: Kevon Looney at Chicago Bulls – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Opposite of Vucevic, Looney should start tonight and see over 20 minutes, as they need his size to match up with Vucevic, especially with Draymond Green (conditioning) still out. Chris Paul (hand) and Gary Payton II (hamstring) are also sidelined, and with these three players off the court this season, Looney is scoring right over 1.0 DraftKings PPM.
While Looney lacks upside, he has a decent chance to surpass 5x value at these cheap salaries and is one of the best true punts this slate has to offer.
