Friday presents a six-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jamal Murray at Sacramento Kings – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Murray is coming off a 60.75 DraftKings point explosion in a road win over the Lakers last night, marking his fourth effort of at least 45 DraftKings points in his past five. Murray has garnered a usage rate over 30% in three of his last five starts and this is a great spot for him to continue his impressive play, with the Kings ranking 11th in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency this season.
This matchup carries the smallest spread on the slate, with Sacramento sitting as a 1.5-point home favorite. Murray has notably averaged 2.5 more DraftKings PPG on the road this season, and he has exceeded 40 DraftKings points in five of the last eight Nuggets games that have presented a spread under five points, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Amen Thompson at Toronto Raptors – $5,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Thompson is viable on both sites but is a core play at only $5,300 on DraftKings. Fred VanVleet (adductor) will miss his second game in a row tonight, and with the guard inactive Tuesday, Thompson started in his place and didn’t disappoint, recording 44.25 DraftKings points across 33.5 minutes vs. the Pacers. Thompson has now started and surpassed 40 DraftKings points in both of the games he has been active for without VanVleet this season.
Thompson generates a strong 1.2 DraftKings PPM with VanVleet off the floor this season, and he should have another huge performance tonight in this juicy spot vs. the Raptors, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency over their last three games.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Green at Toronto Raptors – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Green is also a fantastic target tonight with VanVleet sidelined. Green is supplying 39.6 DraftKings PPG for the three starts he has made without VanVleet this season. Furthermore, with the veteran off the court, Green’s usage has increased a team-high 5.9 percentage points to 33.5%, lifting him to 1.13 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Going against this Raptors defense that ranks dead last in efficiency over their last three, Green has a ceiling near 50 fantasy points in our NBA models.
Top Value: Kevin Huerter vs. Denver Nuggets – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Huerter continues to be too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is a great value at these price points. In his last 10, he has provided 29.1 DraftKings points in 32 minutes per game. With the Kings only favored by 1.5 points tonight, Huerter should see around 35 minutes vs. the Nuggets and out-produce these salaries in this nail-biter.
For the last six occasions the wing has competed as a favorite, Huerter has been excellent, with 34.8 DraftKings PPG.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Bridges was incredible Wednesday, erupting for 68 DraftKings points vs. the Raptors. In his last seven starts, Bridges has now recorded at least 49 DraftKings points five times and has gone over 60 DraftKings points twice. These massive performances have been due to the Hornets being shorthanded, and tonight, they will be as understaffed as ever following yesterday’s trade deadline.
On top of LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Mark Williams (back) remaining out, Charlotte traded away Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington yesterday, and all the players they received in those deals have already been ruled out for tonight with the trade pending. Furthermore, let’s not forget the Hornets traded Terry Rozier to the Heat just a few weeks ago.
Bridges should continue to see huge minutes with his team so short on bodies tonight, and with Ball, Rozier, Williams, Hayward, and Washington off the court this season, Bridges has led Charlotte with 1.3 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his usage and assist rates increasing 3.9 and 8.7 percentage points, respectively.
As for his matchup, the Bucks rank fourth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency, and they are playing their second game in two nights. Bridges brings huge upside in this situation and is only expected to be around 10% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to our projections.
Top Value: Dillon Brooks at Toronto Raptors – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Brooks is another appealing value from the Rockets that is underpriced for life without VanVleet. Brooks finished with 36.25 DraftKings points with VanVleet inactive vs. the Pacers on Wednesday and is now amassing 31.1 DraftKings PPG for the three starts he has made sans VanVleet this season. In those three games, Brooks’ usage has risen 4.9 percentage points to 23.5%, which ranks third for the Rockets in these contests, only trailing Green and Alperen Sengun.
Brooks should surpass five-times value against this soft Raptors defense tonight and is viable for all formats.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Tobias Harris vs. Atlanta Hawks – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Expect a bounce-back performance from Harris tonight after he disappointed with only 27.75 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s blowout loss to the Warriors. Harris had generated 45.1 DraftKings PPG in his previous three starts before Wednesday, and Joel Embiid (knee) remains out tonight.
The reigning MVP leads the NBA in usage this season (38.6%), and with Embiid off the court, Harris’ usage has risen by 3.9 percentage points. Plus, this is an elite spot, with the Hawks ranking third in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency.
At 243.5 points, this game’s total is the highest on the slate by seven points, and Atlanta is only favored by 2.5 points. Harris exploded for 54 DraftKings points the last time he faced the Hawks back on January 10th – which was also a game Embiid missed – and brings similar upside tonight.
Top Value: Jae Crowder vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
In the likely event that Khris Middleton (ankle) misses his second straight tonight, Crowder will be a compelling value play. With the spot start in place of Middleton last night, Crowder finished with a season-best 42.5 DraftKings points across 37.2 minutes against the Wolves and their No.1 ranked defense. While we can’t expect this type of fantasy score tonight, Crowder should be able to reach 5x value at these low salaries if Middleton is inactive.
This Hornets defense Crowder is going against ranks dead last in defensive efficiency and this month, Crowder is contributing 0.8 DraftKings PPM.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Denver Nuggets – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Sabonis is a steal at these sub-$11,000 salaries. The center has been sensational, scoring 56 DraftKings PPG in his last 12 starts. During this stretch, Sabonis has only failed to record over 50 DraftKings points twice. The defending champion Nuggets come to town tonight, and this contest’s spread is the tightest on the slate, with Sacramento only favored by 1.5 points. Plus, while Denver ranks 12th in defensive efficiency this season, they should be weaker on defense tonight, playing their second game in two nights.
Sabonis is arguably the best high-end value on the slate at these price points and can be rostered with full confidence.
Top Value: Onyeka Okongwu at Philadelphia 76ers – $6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Okongwu is an appealing, affordable way to attack this slate-high total between the Hawks and 76ers (243.5 points). With Clint Capela (adductor) out Wednesday, Okongwu started at center for Atlanta and posted 41.5 DraftKings points across 35.5 minutes in a tough matchup vs. the Celtics, who rank third in defensive efficiency. Including this outing, the big man is now amassing 32.9 DraftKings PPG for the four contests Capela has missed this season.
Not having to face Embiid makes this a plus matchup for Okongwu, and another performance over 40 fantasy points is on the table for the center.
