The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball at Detroit Pistons – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
On Friday’s eight-game slate, Ball brings the highest ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel at point guard. Part of that is definitely due to a favorable matchup against the Pistons, who have the second-worst Defensive Rating in the NBA this season and have played at the third-fastest Pace over their 10 most recent games. Since Charlotte is ranked fifth in Pace over that same timeframe, there should be plenty of points in this matchup, which is also reflected in the fact that it has the second-highest over/under on the slate. In such a great scoring environment, Ball should be able to put up a big line as long as he’s in the lineup for the second leg of a back-to-back.
Ball had 19 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and 40.5 DraftKings points on Thursday against the Bulls in a slightly below-average performance. He was much better Tuesday against the Bucks, putting up a massive 72 DraftKings points on 27 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds for his second triple-double of the season.
Since returning from his most recent injury, Ball has played over 35 minutes in four straight games, averaging 20.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 blocked shots per game. With a slight boost to those numbers in such a great environment, he should be ready to post another ceiling game and be one of the top producers on the slate.
Ball’s over on 40.5 points + rebounds + assists looks appealing on Underdog Fantasy. You can get a deposit of up to $100 on Underdog when signing up with promo code LABS.
Top Value: Josh Richardson vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
The Spurs should be a good source of value on Friday night since they’ll be missing several key contributors with starting point guard Tre Jones (foot) doubtful and Jeremy Sochan (back) and Romeo Langford (adductor) already ruled out and joining Devin Vassell (knee) on the sidelines. As a result of his expected expanded role, Richardson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, Richardson can play either guard spot, while on FanDuel, he’s eligible at shooting guard and small forward. The veteran is expected to share point guard duties with 19-year-old rookie Malaki Branham, and both are solid value plays to consider.
Since the Spurs are letting their young guys learn on the job, Richardson’s role has fluctuated wildly throughout the season. He hasn’t always gotten big minutes, but when he has, he usually finds a way to deliver good value since he can fill in multiple columns on the stat sheet. He missed three games with knee soreness earlier this week but returned just in time for Tuesday’s game, where both Jones and Sochan left injured. As a result, he played 29 minutes against the Kings, producing 19 points, 35.1 FanDuel points, and 36.5 DraftKings points.
Dating back to before his brief injury absence, Richardson has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in eight of his past ten games with an average Plus/Minus of +5.82 on DraftKings. In those 10 games, he averaged 13.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.0 steal per game.
With more responsibility for creating and scoring on offense, he has a 21.6% projected usage rate in 32 projected minutes. He brings a nice ceiling and great value potential in this matchup against the Sixers, who he spent one season with back in 2019-20.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Orlando Magic – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Edwards has been a fantasy phenom during the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) and has emerged as a nightly ceiling option on almost every slate. At shooting guard, he has the highest ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and at small forward, he trails only Jayson Tatum. Edwards’ salary has finally caught up with his production, so he isn’t quite as valuable as he has been over the past few weeks, but he still brings a very high ceiling to this favorable matchup against the Magic.
In his past 10 games, Edwards has exceeded salary-based expectations nine times with an average Plus/Minus of +9.93 FanDuel points. He posted over 43 FanDuel points in all but one of those 10 games by averaging 29.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.0 blocked shots per game. He has helped Minnesota go 6-2 over their last eight games and led them to a win on Wednesday over the Warriors.
Edwards has at least five assists in seven of his past eight games and at least five rebounds in seven of those games as well. His non-scoring numbers make him a pretty safe play, and his ability to score points in bunches gives him a very high ceiling. He had 35 points and 61.6 FanDuel points in the first meeting between these two teams, and he should be poised for another monster game on Friday.
Top Value: Malik Monk at Indiana Pacers – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
The highest over/under on Friday’s slate is in the matchup between the Kings and Pacers, who both rank in the top eight in the NBA in Pace this season. Additionally, De’Aaron Fox (personal) has been ruled out and will miss just his fourth game of the season. As a result, plenty of usage is available in the Sacramento backcourt, which should provide good value for several Sacramento options. Monk has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate behind only Richardson, and he and Davion Mitchell should be the biggest beneficiaries.
Monk has a 25.4% usage rate alongside Fox this season, but that number jumps to 29.8% with Fox off the floor. Monk has produced 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario, which shows why he should be a great play if he gets more minutes Friday.
On the Kings’ current road trip, Monk has posted three strong games and is coming off a 22-point performance on Wednesday against the Spurs. He added five assists, three steals, and three rebounds for 40.1 FanDuel points and 39.25 DraftKings points in that game, and he brings similar upside in this favorable game environment.
Monk has struggled to put together big games consistently throughout his career, but he has shown he can flash for big numbers when pressed into an expanded role. That looks like it will be the case on Friday, so build around the high-volume guard in this matchup.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Phoenix Suns – $11,000 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
The Celtics have built on their playoff success from last year and have the best record in the NBA this season. A large part of their success has been the continued emergence of Tatum as a true superstar. He is averaging 31.1 points, 51.04 FanDuel points, and 52.63 DraftKings points in 37.3 minutes per game. His consistently excellent production helps him bring the highest ceiling projection at both small forward and power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel this Friday.
Tatum has scored at least 30 points and produced over 55 DraftKings points in seven of his eight most recent games and only needed to play 29 minutes on Wednesday in a rout of the Nets. He hit seven three-pointers on his way to 57.25 DraftKings points in his limited playing time and didn’t need to attempt a free throw to rack up 31 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. He fell just one rebound short of what would have been his fourth straight double-double and can be counted on for good fantasy production in multiple categories.
He should be relatively fresh after that lighter workload and poised for a big game against the Suns, who are tipping off a five-game road trip with this trip to TD Garden.
Top Value: Harrison Barnes at Indiana Pacers – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
At small forward, Barnes has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings by a significant margin and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Richardson. He’s also eligible at power forward on both sites and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at that position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Like Monk, Barnes should get a bump in usage with Fox off the floor. He has been playing lots of minutes for Sacramento this season, even though his usage has been low. Over his past 10 games, Barnes has averaged 17.9 points in 36.5 minutes per game while adding 3.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 0.8 steals per contest.
With Fox off the floor, Barnes produces 0.82 DraftKings points and 0.79 FanDuel points per minute, which is a slight bump from his averages with Fox on the floor. Since he should get more time and usage in this fantasy-friendly matchup, look for Barnes to be a solid midrange value with good upside on Friday night.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
On Friday’s early-heavy slate, the Jazz hosting the Hawks at 9:00 p.m. ET is the latest game of the day. In that matchup, Markkanen has the fourth-highest ceiling projection on FanDuel at power forward and the second-highest at the position on DraftKings.
Markkanen has been very consistent for the Jazz this season and has scored at least 21 points in each of his past 19 contests. He has posted a double-double in nine of his 16 most recent games, averaging 29.2 points and 9.9 rebounds over that span. He had a double-double against the Raptors on Wednesday for 51.25 DraftKings points and has reached at least 50 DraftKings points in four of his past eight matchups.
Recently, Markkanen has been especially effective at home, averaging 47.2 DraftKings points per game over his past nine games at Vivint Arena.
Top Value: Kyle Anderson vs. Orlando Magic – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Anderson has been a nice value play on a regular basis since stepping into the Wolves’ starting lineup. He doesn’t always score a ton of points but picks up enough rebounds and assists to almost always return value. At power forward, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
Anderson has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games, and he’s posted at least 29 DraftKings points and 27 FanDuel points in four of his past five. In those five games, he has averaged 12.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.0 blocked shots per game.
He went off against the Grizzlies for 23 points and 43.6 FanDuel points last Friday, and he has similar potential if he gets a few extra opportunities in this matchup with the Magic.
While he isn’t a complete bargain at this salary, Anderson is a solid midrange play with nice upside, much like Barnes. If you have to go with a bargain basement play at this spot, options to consider include Jarred Vanderbilt, Isaiah Roby, and Doug McDermott.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Indiana Pacers – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
For the first time since he was traded to Sacramento, Sabonis will visit Indianapolis to take on the Pacers. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at center behind Joel Embiid on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but Embiid is questionable and has serious blowout concerns in San Antonio. Embiid is also more expensive, so I like Sabonis as a better option to build around in the middle.
In his return to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Sabonis will go head-to-head with former teammate Myles Turner, who is coming off a big game Thursday against the Lakers. On the second game of their back-to-back, Turner will have to contend with Sabonis, who comes in on a nice role with 25 double-doubles in his last 27 games.
On Wednesday, Sabonis dominated San Antonio, posting 34 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, two blocks, and two steals for 62.2 FanDuel points and 62.25 DraftKings points in 37 minutes. He could be set for a similar stat line in this fantasy-friendly environment Friday, especially when you consider he’ll have to carry more of the load without Fox.
With Fox off the floor, Sabonis posts 1.3 DraftKings points and 1.29 FanDuel points per minute, and his usage rate increases from 21.5% to 23.1%. Whether you’re here for the revenge narrative or the salary savings over Embiid, Sabonis is a great spot to start your rosters this Friday.
Top Value: Mark Williams at Detroit Pistons – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
There are a lot of high-priced plays that should be good options at center, but if you have to dive into the bargain bin at the position, Williams is an option to consider. The first-round pick from Duke has stepped in recently for the Hornets as their primary backup center and regularly turned in solid numbers.
On FanDuel, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any center under $6K, and on DraftKings, he has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any center. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings, with over 19 DraftKings points in each of those seven contests.
The rookie has played over 16 minutes in eight of his past nine games and has averaged 9.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 1.0 steal per game. He had 13 points, seven boards, three blocks, and 31.4 FanDuel points in 17 minutes on Thursday in Chicago and didn’t have to play a ton of minutes to make an impact.
He should be in a good spot in this matchup against the Pistons. If he continues to deliver, he’ll be a great source of cheap production while allowing you to spend big on the other stars discussed above.
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