The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard at Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Thursday’s NBA trade deadline totally transformed the league and impacted the roster and rotation of many teams. Make sure to pay close attention to the news page for the latest player movement and who will be available leading up to tip-off.
The Trail Blazers shuffled some things around on the wing, but the offense is still built around Lillard, who should be set up in a great spot in this matchup against the Thunder. He has the highest ceiling projection on the whole slate on DraftKings and the highest of all point guards on FanDuel.
Dame has outperformed salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games with an average Plus/Minus of 8.15 FanDuel points during that span. In his most recent game, he compiled a triple-double of 33 points, 11 assists and 20 rebounds for 59.5 FanDuel points and 66.5 DraftKings points while leading his team to a home win over the Warriors.
Lillard has averaged 58.1 DraftKings points on 37.3 points, 7.6 assists and 4.6 rebounds in 37.2 minutes per game over his past 15 contests. In this fun head-to-head matchup with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lillard is actually a little underpriced according to our projections, who indicate he’s a good value even though his salary is over $10K.
Additionally, the Trail Blazers have the highest Implied Team Total of the 22 teams on Friday night’s slate.
Underdog Fantasy currently has Lillard’s points prop set at 34.5 — which could be worthy of an over bet.
Top Value: Derrick White vs. Charlotte Hornets – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
The Celtics are also in a tasty matchup as they host the Hornets, who play at the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA with the sixth-worst defensive rating. White is expected to step into a larger role than normal, with Marcus Smart (ankle) and Jaylen Brown (facial fracture), and Jayson Tatum (illness) questionable.
As a result of his increased workload, White has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard on FanDuel, and the third-highest on the whole slate on that site. There are some other great values on DraftKings that beat him out, but he’s still in the top five at both guard positions in Projected Plus/Minus.
White has scored at least 19 points in each of his past three games and added six rebounds and three assists for 35.7 FanDuel points and 36 DraftKings points on Wednesday while leading the Celtics to a big win over the 76ers. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past eight games with an average Plus/Minus of 7.6 FanDuel points.
Over those eight games, he has been consistent with at least 26 DraftKings points in each game, so this great spot against the Hornets should result in another big game for the sixth-year guard. Even if Tatum plays through the illness, White could still get more work, but if Tatum is forced to sit out, there will be even more usage available, making White almost a must-play.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
The Clippers were very active at the trade deadline, and I like a lot of their additions. However, they won’t be in place yet for this matchup against Milwaukee, and Kawhi Leonard (right knee management) has already been ruled out as well. As a result, George will have to carry the load, and is projected for a 33% usage rate.
At shooting guard, George has the second-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel. On FanDuel, he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards and the second-highest of all shooting guards, behind only Derrick White.
George has been posting solid numbers lately, even with Kawhi on the floor. He scored at least 20 points in each of his three most recent games and had a 50-DraftKings-points performance against the Knicks last Saturday. In that game, he had 30 points, eight boards, five assists, and a steal in 42 minutes. He could have to shoulder a similar workload in this contest if the Clippers can keep this game competitive even though they’re short-handed.
The Clippers also offer other good value options that didn’t quite fit into the framework of this post. I really like Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, and Terance Mann (especially on DraftKings) in this spot as well.
Top Value: Collin Sexton at Toronto Raptors – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
The Jazz traded away Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Mike Conley in a three-team deal and got back very nice future assets in addition to Russell Westbrook, who is expected to reach a buyout agreement with Utah and become a free agent. In the long term, the Lakers’ draft pick could be extremely valuable, and in the short term, the Jazz backcourt is wide open for the team to get a long look at Sexton.
The 24-year-old from Alabama was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft and one of the key pieces of the Donovan Mitchell trade to the Cavs. He has been coming off the bench for most of the season, averaging 21.95 DraftKings points and 20.99 FanDuel points in 23.9 minutes over his 43 games. He has shown flashes of fantasy upside, though, so it will be fascinating to see what he can deliver down the stretch.
Sexton moved into the starting lineup on Wednesday and produced a stellar line of 22 points, five rebounds, and five assists for 35.5 FanDuel points and 37.75 DraftKings points. That production came in an ugly 25-point loss to the Timberwolves, so it looks like his workload will be fairly reliable regardless of the game script. If that’s the case, he’s a great play at this price.
On DraftKings, Sexton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard, with the fifth-highest of all players on the slate. On FanDuel, where he’s a little more expensive, Sexton has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Memphis Grizzlies – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
With Tatum feeling under the weather, Edwards is one pivot to consider who comes at nice savings but still brings a very high ceiling. Edwards has the highest ceiling projection on the slate at shooting guard on DraftKings and the second-highest at small forward, behind only Tatum. On FanDuel, Edwards has the third-highest ceiling projection at both positions but comes remarkably cheap at only just over $9K. He has routinely been too cheap on FanDuel, outperforming salary-based expectations in 12 of his past 16 contests.
Edwards gets a good matchup against the Grizzlies in a playoff rematch from last year, and they’ll be playing without the recently-traded D’Angelo Russell. Mike Conley is questionable to make his debut, but if he’s out, Jaylen Nowell will likely be Edwards’ backcourt mate. While Nowell has nice value potential, the scoring work will likely rest mostly on Edwards, who has proven up to the challenge of carrying the Minnesota offense for most of the season.
The Timberwolves have been in several lopsided contests over the past week, which has resulted in a few unusual stat lines for Edwards. Still, he is averaging 29.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 blocks in 35.6 minutes per game over his past 11 contests.
With Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) off the floor, Edwards’ usage increases by 5.9 percentage points to 35.7%, and he produces 1.43 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute.
Top Value: Nassir Little vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
The Trail Blazers trades opened up plenty of time on the wing with Josh Hart and Gary Payton II headed out and newcomers Matisse Thybulle and Cam Reddish not expected to be ready for this contest. With Jusuf Nurkic (calf) also still sidelined, the Blazers’ frontcourt is a top shopping spot for value.
Little brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both small forward and power forward on DraftKings and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forward under $6K on FanDuel.
Due to a femoral head impaction fracture in his right hip, Little has been limited to only 34 games this season and has only made one start. That spot start came on Jan. 28 against Toronto, and he posted a solid line with eight points and 17.25 DraftKings points in 30 minutes. He has shown a little more fantasy upside than that in other contests with an expanded workload, though. He had nine points and five boards in 26 minutes against Golden State on Wednesday and reached double-digit scoring in four-of-five games in January while filling in more minutes.
Long term, his low usage keeps him from being an asset to consider, but for this Friday, while the Blazers are in transition, he is a solid punt play with enough upside to be a good consideration.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Los Angeles Clippers – $12,500 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
The Bucks finish their back-to-back in Los Angeles with a Friday night matchup against the Clippers after beating the Lakers to increase their winning streak to nine straight games. Giannis had 38 points and 63 FanDuel points and posted his 11th-straight double-double.
As usual, Antetokounmpo brings one of the highest ceiling projections on the slate. He actually gets edged out by Lillard for the top spot on DraftKigns and by Joel Embiid for the top spot on FanDuel, but he’s still right there with one of the highest ceilings available.
Despite his elevated salary, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his eight most recent games, averaging 38.6 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists over that span.
One of his best recent performances came in this same matchup last week when he dropped 54 points on the Clippers in Milwaukee. He added 19 rebounds and finished with an impressive 76.8 FanDuel points and 81.75 DraftKings points in that contest and should be in a smash spot in this rematch on Friday.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Along with Nassir Little, Eubanks, and Trendon Watford will continue to be asked to step into larger roles for the Trail Blazers. Eubanks has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel, where he is eligible at both power forward and center. On DraftKings, he’s only eligible at center, where he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
The Shaq of Troutdale has started four straight games for Portland while Nurkic has been sidelined. Over his past five games, he has averaged 8.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.2 assists for 21.9 DraftKings points per game over that stretch.
Back in December, Eubanks made a spot start against the Thunder and produced nine points, seven rebounds and 26.25 DraftKings points in 32 minutes. If he gets that much run in this contest, he could prove to be the best big-man value on the slate.
Center
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo vs. Houston Rockets – $9,100 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
I’m going with Bam at this spot due to a great matchup and some significant savings over Joel Embiid. Embiid always brings an ultra-high ceiling, but he has been consistently questionable with left foot soreness lately, and his numbers have been a little down by his lofty standards. Embiid is always an option to consider, but I prefer Bam as a ceiling play on this slate.
Adebayo has the second-highest ceiling projection of all centers on FanDuel, even though he has the fifth-highest salary.
He comes into this juicy matchup against the up-tempo, defensively-challenged Rockets on a nice roll. Over his past 13 games, Adebayo has averaged 22.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.5 steals per game while posting seven double-doubles. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past seven games with an average Plus/Minus of 14.5 FanDuel points in his three most recent games.
Top Value: Zach Collins at Detroit Pistons – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
The Spurs shipped Jakob Poeltl back to Toronto in a draft day deal, which should open all the minutes Collins is ready to handle at center in San Antonio. Collins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Eubanks. On DraftKings, he leads the slate by a significant margin with a Projected Plus/Minus of 14.6 DraftKings points.
Collins has been coming off the bench most of the season for the Spurs but did start one game in 2023, producing 18 points, 12 boards and 41 DraftKings points in a ceiling performance against the Celtics. He also had a double-double the last time he played more than 20 minutes, producing 35.25 DraftKings points in a blowout loss to the Wizards two weeks ago.
With Poeltl off the floor, Collins has a 20.3% usage rate and produces 1.0 FanDuel points and 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. Especially in this matchup with the Pistons, Collins should be a great source of value as he steps into his new role.
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