Friday’s main slate on DraftKings includes all seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton at Chicago Bulls – $8,300
Haliburton has been inconsistent as of late, but the point guard should come alive in this gorgeous matchup vs. the Bulls. Ranking second in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, Chicago has been the best matchup in the league this season. The Bulls are also playing their second game in two nights and as a result, the Pacers carry the highest implied team total on the slate by almost four points (126 points). Furthermore, this game’s total is the largest on the board by a whopping 17.5 points at 248 points, which is the highest total the NBA has seen this season.
Haliburton is handling a 21.9% usage rate and 35.9% assist percentage this season, and when competing in a total of at least 240 points the last two seasons, the guard has responded with 48.7 DraftKings PPG (39 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: D’Angelo Russell at Atlanta Hawks – $5,400
The Lakers have ruled out Austin Reaves (pelvic), and LeBron James (foot) is questionable. With Reaves missing, Russell should continue to start for the Lakers. Before Wednesday’s 41-point loss to the Heat, Russell made his first start of the season in place of Russell, and the veteran posted 33.75 DraftKings points across 33.5 minutes Monday vs. the Timberwolves.
Russell generates 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Reaves off the floor this season, and that number increases to 1.3 DraftKings PPM with both Reaves and James off the floor. Competing in the second-highest total on the slate vs. the Hawks (230.5 points), Russell is a core value for this slate that would bring a sensational ceiling relative to his affordable salary if James ends up joining Reaves on the sidelines. Even with James projected as in, Russell is rating as the No. 1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Derrick White vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $7,100
The Celtics will be getting Jayson Tatum (knee) and Jrue Holiday (knee) back on Friday, but Kristaps Porzingis (injury management) will be inactive. White is averaging 35 DraftKings PPG with Porzingis sidelined the last two seasons (18 games), and while the Bucks defense has improved, they have always been most vulnerable to guards since acquiring Damian Lillard.
Per usual, the Celtics are expected to produce a huge amount of points – their implied team total ranks third on the slate (118 points) – and White is the best high-end value shooting guard available Friday, who likely will get overlooked with Tatum back in the lineup for Boston.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu vs. Indiana Pacers – $5,700
Coby White (ankle) was inactive last night, and Dosunmu stepped up in White’s absence, going off for a 67.5 DraftKings point triple-double across 35 minutes vs. the Spurs. While the Bulls’ injury report has yet to be released, White playing tonight is very unlikely, and while we can’t expect another 67.5 DraftKings points, Dosunmu would be one of the best targets on the slate if White is inactive again.
As noted above, this tilt vs. the Pacers carries the highest total the NBA has seen this season (248 points), and with White off the floor this season, Dosunmu has produced a 1.0 DraftKings PPM with an 18.5% usage rate and a 21.8% assist percentage, via the On/Off Tool. Our ShotQuality projections are anticipating White being inactive and in that situation, Dosunmu has a ceiling near 40 DraftKings points.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Franz Wagner at Philadelphia 76ers – $9,500
The Magic are playing the 76ers for the second straight game Friday, and in the first leg of this mini series Wednesday, Wagner’s superb season continued with a 47.25 DraftKings point outing. With Paolo Banchero (out, oblique) sidelined for most of this season, Wagner has led the Magic to a 16-8 record and likely his first All-Star selection. With Banchero inactive for the last 19 games, Wagner has produced 49 DraftKings PPG with a 32.6% usage rate and 31.8% assist percentage.
While this game carries the lowest total of the slate (210.5 points), Wagner has proved he is matchup-proof sans Banchero, and Wagner is rating as a strong value at less than $10K on DraftKings tonight.
Top Value: Talen Horton-Tucker vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,100
Assuming White remains out for the Bulls, Horton-Tucker will be an excellent punt play. The veteran has generated 23.9 DraftKings points in 19.2 minutes per game off the bench in these past two, with White inactive. Thanks to at least a 2.0 percentage point boost to both his usage and assist rates, Horton-Tucker is scoring an elite 1.34 DraftKings PPM with White off the floor via the On/Off Tool.
In this colossal 248-point total vs. the Pacers, Horton-Tucker should have zero issues exceeding 5x value, and he will be a no-brainer value play if White is out again.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Chicago Bulls – $7,800
This is a great time to buy low on Siakam. Coming off three straight showings under 30 DraftKings points, the veteran is naturally going to be low-owned, and this matchup with the Bulls is the perfect spot for Siakam to get back on track. As noted above, this game’s 248-point total is the highest the league has seen this season, and the Pacers’ implied team total is the largest on the slate (126 points).
Siakam’s usage has been at a strong 23.6% this season and both Indiana and Chicago ranking inside the top-eight in pace makes this a stellar spot for the forward. Siakam is at his best in up-tempo settings and he has supplied 42.8 DraftKings PPG in totals of 240 points or more since he joined the Pacers (19 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: De’Andre Hunter vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,000
Hunter has been one of the best bench players in the league this season. The veteran is fresh off a 36.25 DraftKings point performance vs. the Bucks on Wednesday. Hunter has now surpassed 30 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. The forward is shooting a career-best 41% from beyond the arc, and he is knocking down 2.4 three-pointers per game this season.
The Lakers have been abysmal defensively, ranking 26th in efficiency, and the Hawks’ implied team total ranks fourth on the slate Friday (117.25 points). Hunter is a great value player in this spot, and as always, him being a reserve should depress his ownership.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,400
With White inactive last night, Vucevic went nuts for 58 DraftKings points in a win over the Spurs. The center has scored at least 56 DraftKings points in two of his last three starts, and Vucevic is a strong target no matter what, but if White remains out as expected, Vucevic will be a tough fade.
With a 1.6 percentage point increase to his usage, Vucevic scores 1.4 DraftKings PPM with White off the floor this season and the Pacers have struggled inside, giving up the fourth-most points in the paint this season. This 248-point total is the largest total Vucevic has ever competed in and when he has found himself in a total of at least 240 points the last two seasons, Vucevic has provided 45.5 DraftKings PPG (five games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Obi Toppin at Chicago Bulls – $3,600
Toppin has really found his groove as of late and his impressive play absolutely should continue in this elite spot vs. the Bulls. In his last three games, Toppin has contributed 29.2 DraftKings points in 20.1 minutes per game off the bench. The veteran has been a focal point of the Pacers’ offense when he has been on the court, with a 25.2% usage rate during this stretch and he has shot an efficient 58% from the field.
Toppin is extremely active in this fast-paced environment vs. Chicago, and he is a steal at this $3,600 salary. In our ShotQuality projections, Toppin is rating as a top-three value on the slate, and his PF/C eligibility makes him a very valuable play.
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