Friday delivers an eight-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $8,400
Murray brings the highest ceiling on the slate among point guards in ShotQuality projections and is an elite value at this salary. The Grizzlies are in town tonight, and while they rank fourth in defensive efficiency, they are playing their second game in two nights, and no team in the NBA plays faster than Memphis. The Pelicans rank 17th in pace, so this is a massive pace increase for New Orleans and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (237.5 points), which is the largest total the Pelicans have competed in this season.
Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Brandon Ingram (ankle) remain out for New Orleans, and with both Williamson and Ingram off the court this season, Murray is scoring 1.23 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. Plus, for the three occasions the guard has played in a total of at least 230 points this season, Murray is generating 49.3 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Spencer Dinwiddie at Phoenix Suns – $4,900
The Mavericks received some unfortunate news Thursday night that Luka Doncic (calf) will be out for at least a month. The superstar is one of the NBA’s leaders in usage this season and with him missing, many Dallas players are standing out as viable value plays tonight, with Dinwiddie being arguably the best.
In the eight games Doncic has missed this season, Dinwiddie has been a key contributor, with 30.9 DraftKings points in 28.3 minutes per game, via the On/Off Tool. The veteran is supplying 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Doncic off the floor this season, and going against a soft Suns defense that ranks 26th in efficiency, Dinwiddie should exceed five-times value with ease.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
a
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Phoenix Suns – $8,300
With Doncic exiting after only 16 minutes on Christmas day, Irving stepped up and finished with 51.75 DraftKings points in a brutal matchup against a Timberwolves team that ranks fifth in defensive efficiency. Irving is leading Dallas with 42.4 DraftKings PPG with Doncic inactive this season, and with the Slovenian off the floor, Irving’s usage rises 3.8 percentage points to 30%, and he scores 1.2 DraftKings PPM.
After facing Minnesota in his last start, Irving is in a much friendlier spot against the Suns tonight and Phoenix is only favored by 1.5 points for this tilt. Irving has 50 DraftKings point upside in this compelling situation, and we likely won’t see him this cheap for a long time, with Doncic slated to miss at least a month.
Top Value: Kris Dunn vs. Golden State Warriors – $3,800
Dunn has surpassed 20 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts. The veteran has logged 25.1 minutes per game during this span with Terance Mann (finger) sidelined, and the guard will remain unavailable Friday. Dunn should see roughly 25 minutes, and he is amassing 0.82 DraftKings PPM with Mann off the court this season.
The Warriors defense has been a mess since Dennis Schroder arrived, ranking 27th in defensive rating with the guard in the lineup, and Dunn should top 20 DraftKings points in this appealing matchup.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Bradley Beal vs. Dallas Mavericks – $7,400
While Beal’s tenure in Phoenix has been underwhelming so far, the former All-Star has been great with Devin Booker (groin) out of the lineup. The Kentucky product has missed three games in a row and Beal has scored at least 41.5 DraftKings points in two of these games. Booker will remain sidelined Friday, and with him off the floor this season, Beal’s usage increases 3.8 percentage points to 27.9%, and his assist rate rises 3.2 percentage points to 18.1%, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
While the Mavericks are a subpar matchup, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency, Beal is just too cheap for life without Booker and needs to be rostered at this reasonable price tag.
Top Value: Jake LaRavia at New Orleans Pelicans – $4,100
Assuming Marcus Smart (finger) remains sidelined, LaRavia will be a terrific value play. With Smart out last night, LaRavia posted 24.25 DraftKings points vs. the Pistons. Following this outing, the wing is averaging 26.3 DraftKings points in 25.1 minutes per game for the 13 contests LaRavia has played with Smart inactive.
LaRavia is shooting 50% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc this season, and this Pelicans defense he is facing is giving up the sixth-most made three-pointers per game. Likely due to him being a bench player, LaRavia never comes with much ownership, and he will be a sharp, cheap way to gain access to the Grizzlies tonight if Smart remains unavailable as expected. In this prime spot against a New Orleans defense that ranks 28th in efficiency, Memphis carries the highest implied team total on the slate (123 points).
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Indiana Pacers – $9,900
The Celtics have dropped two games in a row for the first time this season and desperately need to take of business tonight against a Pacers team that is on the second leg of a back-to-back. Tatum has been brilliant with 83.75 and 62.75 DraftKings points in his past two starts, and the superstar has a long history of dominating Indiana, with at least 53 DraftKings points in eight of his nine matchups with the club over the last two years.
The Celtics present the second-highest implied team total on the slate against this Pacers team that ranks eighth in pace (122 points), and Tatum is a safe investment for over 50 DraftKings points tonight, which would become an even better target if Boston is shorthanded. Both Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) and Jrue Holiday (shoulder) are questionable, and either starter sitting would result in an increase to Tatum’s already huge usage rate.
Top Value: Jonathan Kuminga at Los Angeles Clippers – $5,500
With Stephen Curry (knee) out tonight, Kuminga should be one of the Warriors’ main players. In the past two contests Curry has missed, Kuminga has started and produced 39.1 DraftKings points in 30.3 minutes per game. Moving Dennis Schroder over to point guard and having Kuminga join the starting lineup is the most logical move for Golden State tonight and if that is the case, Kuminga will be an easy choice at this affordable salary.
With Curry off the court this season, Kuminga leads the Warriors with a 30.6% usage rate – which is a 2.9 percentage point life from his average – and he provides 1.1 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,800
The Nuggets will be without Aaron Gordon (calf) and the Cavaliers are in town for a marquee matchup. This game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (237.5 points) and Cleveland is only favored by 2.5 points. This is an incredible setting and Jokic’s ceiling is the highest on the slate in our ShotQuality projections by over 10 DraftKings points. The center erupted for 77.5 DraftKings points when he faced the Cavaliers earlier this month and Gordon was active for this tilt. Jokic’s usage increases a team-high 2.8 percentage points with Gordon off the court this season, and Jokic scores a whopping 1.9 DraftKings PPM in this situation, via the On/Off Tool.
Jokic has made eight starts without Gordon this season, and Jokic has been brilliant with 72.6 DraftKings PPG on those occasions. It is very likely the three-time MVP leads this slate DraftKings points by a comfortable margin and having Jokic in your lineup needs to be a priority tonight.
Top Value: Zach Edey at New Orleans Pelicans – $5,000
Edey is the No.1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections and is a core play for the second straight day. Last night, the rookie bullied the Raptors for a double-double worth 50 DraftKings points across 27.2 minutes. While Edey and Smart play different positions, Edey has seen the biggest boost with Smart inactive, with 30.9 DraftKings PPG in the 10 contests he has played without Smart.
Edey’s production increases from 1.2 to 1.3 DrafKings PPM with Smart off the floor and if Smart remains out as expected, Edey should destroy this cheap salary against this terrible Pelicans defense that is extremely susceptible to big men. This season, New Orleans is surrendering the second-most points in the paint and the fourth-most rebounds in the NBA.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, June 13): Expect Chef Curry to Keep Cookin’
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings and FanDuel (Friday, Nov. 3)
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings and FanDuel (Monday, Nov. 6)
NBA DFS (Tuesday, Nov. 14): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
