Friday presents a three-game NBA slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Miami Heat – $10,300
After losing the NBA Cup to the Bucks on Tuesday, Gilgeous-Alexander got back on track last night in a win over the Magic, recording 59.5 DraftKings points against that Orlando defense that ranks third in efficiency this season. Things get a little easier tonight, going against a Heat defense that ranks 10th in efficiency, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-caliber season should continue with the Thunder only favored by one point.
The guard is contributing 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 33.5% usage rate – which ranks fifth in the NBA – and in spreads of five points or less this season, Gilgeous-Alexander has dominated with 60.4 DraftKings PPG (four games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Delon Wright at Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,000
With Damian Lillard (calf) sidelined, Wright should see an increased role for the Bucks tonight, possibly as a starter. Lillard has missed three games this season, and on those occasions, Wright averaged 22.5 FPTS in 28 minutes per game, with the veteran starting in the final two of this three-game stretch.
Wright is amassing a modest 0.6 DraftKings PPM this season, but he is a viable punt at this bare minimum salary that can be considered for all formats, especially if he enters Milwaukee’s first unit. In our ShotQuality projections, Wright is the No.1 guard value on the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $8,700
Mitchell, far and away, brings the highest ceiling among shooting guards for this small slate in our ShotQuality projections and is a viable GPP target, with the Cavaliers carrying the highest implied team total of the night (115.5 points). Mitchell is leading Cleveland with a 30.9% usage rate and 1.3 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has a 41.25 DraftKings point performance vs. the Bucks on his season resume.
Mitchell is shooting a career-best 40% on three-pointers this season, and he has recorded at least 49 DraftKings points in three of the past five games that the Cavaliers have carried an implied team total of at least 115 points, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Terry Rozier vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,600
Since moving to the bench 10 games ago, Rozier has been a solid contributor, with at least 22 DraftKings points in six of these games. The guard has seen an 18% usage rate and 24.9 minutes per game as a reserve, and while the Thunder are the league’s highest-rated defense, they are playing their second game in two nights, while the Heat haven’t played since Monday.
Rozier has a decent chance to surpass five-times value at this low salary, and he shouldn’t be popular, given he now comes off the bench.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $7,900
Butler is coming off a ridiculous 88.75 DraftKings point triple-double in Monday’s overtime loss to the Pistons, and he has now eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in four of his past seven starts. Butler is shooting a career-best 55% from the field this season, and one could presume his strong recent play could be a strategy to increase his value in the trade market, as there have been numerous rumors that Butler wants to be dealt to a contender.
Nonetheless, the Thunder are only favored by one point tonight, and in this potential nail-biter, Butler should see big minutes and has a ceiling above 40 DraftKings points. For the nine instances the veteran has competed in a spread under five points this season, Butler has topped 40 DraftKings points five times, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at Miami Heat – $4,000
Caruso posted 23.75 DraftKings points in last night’s win over the Magic, and the veteran has now topped 20 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games. Caruso is generating a solid 0.9 DraftKings PPM, and he is racking up 2.4 defensive stats per game this season.
While Caruso’s floor is fragile, given his low 14% usage rate, taking a chance on him to continue his strong recent form in this tight spread with the Heat makes sense for this short, difficult slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,300
Antetokounmpo has been moving up the MVP rankings recently. After going off for 74 DraftKings points vs. the Hawks in the NBA Cup semifinals, the big man exposed the Thunder and their top-rated defense for a triple-double worth 77.25 DraftKings points in the Bucks’ convincing win to clinch the NBA Cup on Tuesday. Now, Antetokounmpo faces the top-seeded Cavaliers without Lillard, naturally putting more on Antetokounmpo’s plate.
The forward is scoring 69.4 DraftKings PPG with Lillard inactive this season (three games), and Antetokounmpo is amassing 1.8 DraftKings PPM with Lillard off the floor, thanks to a 9.5 percentage point boost to his assist rate, via the On/Off Tool. Even with Lillard active, Antetokounmpo recorded 71 DraftKings points in his lone meeting with Cleveland this season. Despite being the highest-priced player, Antetokounmpo is the No.1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections, and while it may take rostering some uncomfortable punt plays, getting him in your lineup is a necessity for this short slate.
Top Value: Miles Bridges at Philadelphia 76ers – $6,300
Since returning from a 10-game absence due to a knee injury, Bridges has been strong, with 33.3 DraftKings points in 28.3 minutes per game. Notably, his best performance during this stretch was a 37 DraftKings point outing vs. the same 76ers team he will face tonight.
Bridges is supplying 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 24.5% usage rate this season, and at this discounted salary – which is a $1,100 decrease from his season high – Bridges is one of the best forward options on the board.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Charlotte Hornets – $9,500
Embiid (sinus) is questionable tonight, but the big man hasn’t played in a week and given the injury is to his face and not his lower body, the center should suit up without limitations. Before suffering the sinus fracture last Friday vs. the Pacers, Embiid finally looked like his old self, with 54.5 DraftKings points in 34 minutes per game in his previous two starts.
Embiid ranks third in the NBA in usage rate this season (33.7%), and he is a safe bet for over 50 DraftKings points against this Hornets team that ranks 19th in defensive efficiency and is on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Top Value: Brook Lopez at Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,600
Lopez warrants GPP consideration, with Lillard missing tonight. With the guard inactive this season, Lopez has flashed great upside, with a 37.25 DraftKings point outing vs. the Raptors and a 56.5 DraftKings point performance vs. the Pistons. In the 114 minutes the center has played with Lillard off the floor, Lopez’s usage has increased a team-high 6.3 percentage points, and he has produced 1.2 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Going against a large Cavalier frontcourt tonight, Lopez should receive big minutes, and he has a much better upside than his salary suggests.
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