DraftKings’ main slate for Friday features the first six games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Denver Nuggets – $9,700
Harden (groin) has been removed from the Clippers’ injury report after missing one game, but Terance Mann (finger) and Derrick Jones Jr. (hamstring) have both been ruled out. With these two players off the court this season, Harden’s usage increases by 2.2 percentage points, and he produces 1.5 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
The Nuggets rank 20th in defensive efficiency this season, and this game’s total is set at 228.5 points, which is a high total for this slow-paced Clippers team. Los Angeles has competed in three totals of at least 225 points this season, and Harden has flourished on these occasions, with 62.9 DraftKings PPG – via the Trends Tool – including a season-high 70.75 DraftKings point outburst against Denver last Sunday. Additionally, Harden posted 57 DraftKings points against the Nuggets in the second game of the season. The guard is an excellent spend tonight and he could get slightly overlooked after missing his last game.
Top Value: Kevin Porter Jr. at Denver Nuggets – $4,200
Mann and Jones Jr. being sidelined opens the door for Porter Jr. to see an expanded role off the bench. Our ShotQuality projections are projecting the veteran for 24 minutes, which is more than enough time for him to outproduce this low salary against the Nuggets and their soft defense.
With both Mann and Jones Jr. off the floor, Porter Jr.’s usage rises 2.0 percentage points to a huge 30.4% – which ranks second on the Clippers for this situation, only trailing Harden – and Porter Jr. supplies 1.1 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. Plus, for the last five instances he has cracked the 20-minute mark, Porter Jr. is amassing 27.1 DraftKings PPG.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Washington Wizards – $8,900
Evan Mobley (ankle) is questionable tonight, and sitting him makes sense with the 3-19 Wizards in town. If that is the case, Mitchell will be an appealing high-end option for GPPs. With Mobley inactive the last two seasons, Mitchell has led the Cavaliers with 47.8 DraftKings PPG (20 games). His assist rate increased 5.3 percentage points in those starts, and Washington is a gorgeous matchup, with them ranking fourth in pace and second-to-last in defensive efficiency.
Cleveland’s implied team total is the highest on the slate by a sizable gap (125 points), and when these two clubs faced each other earlier this season, Mitchell scored 51 DraftKings points even with Mobley active.
Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $3,900
DiVincenzo has struggled lately due to some poor matchups, but tonight’s matchup with the Lakers is exactly what the doctor ordered. Los Angeles ranks 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and when these two teams met last Monday, DiVincenzo poured in 36.25 DraftKings points across 28.1 minutes off the bench. The ex-Knick is hoisting up 6.6 three-pointers per game, while the Lakers are allowing their opponents to knock down threes at the fifth-highest clip in the league.
DiVincenzo has been 4.9 DraftKings PPG better at home this season with 24 DraftKings PPG. He is a sneaky punt for GPPs that most will likely disregard due to his poor game log.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Norman Powell at Denver Nuggets – $6,300
Powell is another compelling target for the Clippers. With Mann and Jones Jr. off the court this season, Powell’s assist rate has jumped a team-high 7.6 percentage points, lifting the veteran to 1.3 DraftKings PPM. Harden’s return also helps Powell, as it takes defensive attention off the wing. Harden is an elite playmaker who often looks Powell’s way.
Powell is averaging 39.9 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with the Nuggets this season, and he is one of the best values on the slate at this affordable salary.
Top Value: Justin Champagnie at Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,500
Champagnie is a tough fade tonight, regardless of this matchup vs. the Cavaliers, who rank 10th in defensive efficiency. With Kyle Kuzma (ribs) and Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) sidelined for the past two games, Champagnie has started for the Wizards and has been very effective, scoring 38.3 DraftKings points in 35.3 minutes per game. Cleveland is a massive 17-point favorite tonight, but even in a 28-point loss to the Grizzlies on Sunday, Champagnie led the team with 34.2 minutes, and he didn’t leave the floor in the fourth quarter despite the blowout.
The 23-year-old is on a two-way deal with Washington, so they likely want to give Champagnie a long look and heavy minutes, no matter the outcome of the game. The forward should receive around 35 minutes again tonight and effortlessly beat his price tag. With Kuzma and Brogdon off the court, Champagnie is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Brooklyn Nets – $7,500
Jackson Jr. posted 41.5 DraftKings points vs. the Nets in October, and the forward is underpriced for his upside in this prime spot. Brooklyn ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Grizzlies carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate (121.25 points). Jackson Jr. is providing 1.34 DraftKings PPM, and he is shooting a career-high 52% from the field this season. Plus, his defense has remained elite, with 3.4 defensive stats per game.
The Nets are yielding the third-most blocks per game this season (6.5) and Jackson Jr. is a sharp target for GPPs, with our projections slating him to be only around 3% owned on DraftKings.
Top Value: Aaron Gordon vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,500
Gordon is a great bargain at this season-low salary. His minutes were limited in his last start due to the Nuggets beating the Hawks by 30 points, but in his two previous starts, Gordon saw his usual large workload, with 31.5 DraftKings points in 33.4 minutes per game. The veteran is back to full strength after missing an extended period with a calf injury, and Gordon should approach 35 minutes tonight in this 6.5-spread vs. the Clippers, as the Nuggets haven’t played since Sunday and won’t play again until this coming Monday.
Denver presents the fourth-highest total on the slate (117.25 points), and Gordon should top 30 DraftKings points tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $12,500
Jokic is the No.1 option on the slate and is viable for all formats, but if Jamal Murray (questionable, hamstring) misses his third in a row, Jokic will enter must-play territory. Murray was only able to participate in some portions of Wednesday’s practice, and with the Nuggets not back in action until Monday, Denver should let the guard get another few days of rest.
With Murray inactive this season, Jokic has been godly with 78.7 DraftKings PPG (five games). With Murray off the floor this season, Jokic’s usage has increased 5.3 percentage points to 36.7%, and he has destroyed his opponents for 2.0 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. Jokic is scoring 67.1 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with the Clippers this season, even with Murray available for both of these tilts. If the guard is absent this time around, Jokic has slate-breaking upside, and contending in a GPP will likely be virtually impossible if you don’t have the big man in your lineup. This game is the last of the slate to tip off, so we likely won’t have word on Murray before the start of the slate so the best strategy is to build around Jokic even without Murray news, as Jokic could still beat his salary even if Murray is active.
Top Value: Jonas Valanciunas at Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,500
With Kuzma and Brogdon sidelined for the past two, Valanciunas has started for the Wizards and has been producing strong numbers, with back-to-back doubles-doubles of 51.5 and 42.5 DraftKings points. The center has seen 27.4 minutes per game in these two starts and is an easy choice again on Friday despite the mediocre matchup with the Cavaliers.
With Kuzma and Brogdon off the floor, all of Valanciunas’ rates increase, and he is leading Washington with an elite 1.5 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. In our ShotQuality projections, Valanciunas is the No.2 value on the slate, only trailing his teammate in Champagnie.
