After Thursday’s semifinal matchups of the In-Season Tournament, the NBA presents a massive 13-game slate Friday. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Terry Rozier vs. Toronto Raptors – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Regardless of this subpar matchup vs. the Raptors – who rank 12th in defensive efficiency – Rozier remains underpriced for life without LaMelo Ball (foot). Rozier has flourished in his last three starts with Ball inactive, scoring 54.1 DraftKings PPG, including an impressive 46 DraftKings point effort vs. the Wolves and their league-best defense. Rozier leads the Hornets with a 29.8% usage rate with Ball off the court this season – which is a 2.1 percentage point upgrade from his season average – and generates 1.2 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Rozier should record nothing less than 40 DraftKings points tonight and is a strong target for both cash games and GPPs.
Top Value: Anfernee Simons vs. Dallas Mavericks – $6,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Simons (thumb) returned from an 18-game absence Wednesday and showed no signs of rust, posting 37.75 DraftKings across 37 minutes with a team-high 33% usage rate vs. the Warriors. Jerami Grant (out, concussion) and Deandre Ayton (doubtful, knee) missed this game, and both are expected to remain out Friday. Additionally, Malcolm Brogdon (knee) is questionable, which could open even more work for Simons.
Either way, Simons is going to see a large usage rate with Grant and Ayton unavailable and is far too cheap for his upside vs. the Mavs, who rank 11th in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Everything is aligning for a huge performance from Booker tonight. The guard is in a great spot vs. the Kings – who are sixth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency – and, more importantly, will be asked to take on a huge workload with Kevin Durant (ankle), Bradley Beal (back) and Grayson Allen (groin) all out for the Suns. With these three players off the court, Booker produces an elite 1.6 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his usage rising by 1.6 percentage points and his assist percentage increasing by 6.0 percentage points, via the On/Off Tool.
Booker posted 55.75 DraftKings points in a tough matchup vs. the Knicks in the one start he has made sans Durant, Beal, and Allen this season, and he has even better upside tonight in a much friendlier matchup with Sacramento.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at San Antonio Spurs – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
While overpriced on FanDuel, Caruso is an appealing value play at only $5,100 on DraftKings. Zach LaVine (foot) remains out, and excluding last Saturday, when Caruso injured his toe in the first half and didn’t return, the veteran is amassing 25 DraftKings points in 29 minutes per game in the three full starts he has made without LaVine this season. On the menu for tonight is an awesome matchup vs. the Spurs, who rank third in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Furthermore, San Antonio is giving up the third most steals in the league, which bodes well for a defensive specialist like Caruso, who is averaging 1.3 steals per game this season. The guard’s ability to stuff the stat sheet with defensive stats gives him a solid ceiling, and Caruso should thrive in this beautiful spot vs. the Spurs.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Mikal Bridges vs. Washington Wizards – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Bridges has been on fire, and his outstanding play should almost certainly continue against the lowly Wizards. Washington is one of the best matchups you could ask for, with them ranking second in pace and second-to-last in defensive efficiency. In all but one of his last seven starts, Bridges has scored over 40 DraftKings.
Furthermore, the wing has gone over 50 DraftKings points three times during this run, including a season-best 69.5 DraftKings point outing vs. the Hawks. Bridges has led the Nets with a 28% usage rate during this run and tallied 48.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with the Wizards last month.
The Nets carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate tonight (124.5 points) – which is their largest of the season by nearly five points – and this game’s total is the second-highest on the board (240 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
For the three starts he has made in totals of at least 235 points over the last two seasons, Bridges has been a stud, supplying 52.5 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Derrick Jones Jr. at Portland Trail Blazers – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Jones Jr. is playing great basketball, and nobody is taking notice, with FantasyLabs slating him for essentially zero ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Combine this factor with Jones Jr.’s affordable salary, and he is a terrific value play to attack tonight.
With the Mavs dealing with many key injuries recently, the veteran has ranked third on the team in minutes per game (30.8), which has translated into 28.5 DraftKings PPG for Jones Jr. The wing has knocked down 54.2% of his threes during this time and should continue to receive a large role as a starter tonight, with Josh Green (elbow) and Grant Williams (knee) remaining sidelined.
Dallas is tied for the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (119.25 points), and Jones Jr. is a safe bet for at least 25 fantasy points.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero vs. Detroit Pistons – $8,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Banchero has been unstoppable and needs to be rostered at these reasonable price tags. The forward just went off for a career-high 42 points in an ugly matchup vs. the Cavs on Wednesday, resulting in 54 DraftKings points. Banchero has now recorded at least 46 DraftKings points in four of his past five starts, with that lone outlier being a blowout win over the Wizards, in which his minutes were severely limited due to a sprained ankle and that the game was out of reach for Washington.
For tonight, Banchero is at home and going against a Pistons defense that ranks 24th in efficiency. Plus, Jalen Suggs (ankle) has been ruled out, and with the guard off the floor, Banchero’s usage has increased a team-high 2.2 percentage points to 29%, via the On/Off Tool. The Magic should have no issues handing Detroit their 19th straight loss tonight, and Banchero should be the main reason why with another huge performance.
Top Value: Keita Bates-Diop vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
With Durant, Beal, and Allen all unavailable, Bates-Diop should start tonight and surpass 5x value at these low salaries. In the lone game the Suns have played without Durant, Beal, and Allen this season, Bates-Diop started and finished with 26.25 DraftKings points in 27.4 minutes vs. the Knicks.
The veteran collects 0.9 DraftKings PPM with those three starters off the floor this season, and as noted above, this is a plus matchup, with the Kings ranking sixth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency. In the four contests Bates-Diop has logged over 25 minutes this season, he is averaging 23.3 DraftKings PPG.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Atlanta Hawks – $11,700 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
At slightly cheaper salaries and in a better matchup, Embiid gets the edge over Nikola Jokic tonight. Embiid has been a monster, scoring 70.5 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts and the Hawks rank fourth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. Atlanta is also giving up the fourth most points in the paint and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (241 points). To put the icing on the cake, no team in action Friday boasts a higher implied team total than the 76ers (124.5 points).
Embiid has dominated his opponents for 74.5 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (three games) and brings the highest ceiling on the slate in FantasyLabs’ models.
Top Value: Orlando Robinson vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
The Heat finally gave up on Thomas Bryant and have started Robinson in place of Bam Adebayo (out, hip) for the last two games, and Robinson hasn’t disappointed, scoring 27.25 DraftKings points vs. the Pacers and then 46 DraftKings points vs. the Raptors.
Coming off a 10-point win over Toronto in which Robinson finished at +27 in the box score, the center should start again tonight with Adebayo remaining sidelined. This is a difficult spot vs. a Cavs defense that ranks 10th in efficiency but is a matchup that requires Robinson’s size.
The 23-year-old should see at least 29 minutes for the third straight game and is underpriced for his current role as the Heat’s starting center. This season, Robinson is providing 1.1 DraftKings PPM and 34.6 DraftKings PPG for the four occasions he has logged over 25 minutes. According to FantasyLabs’ projections, Robinson is expected to come with single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
