The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard at Golden State Warriors – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Friday night is packed with stars in good spots, but the highest ceiling projection at point guard on both FanDuel and DraftKings belongs to Lillard, who will be leading the Blazers to the Bay to take on the Warriors in what should be a great matchup for more Dame time. The game has the second-highest over/under of the nine games on the slate, and Lillard almost always does the heavy lifting for Portland’s offense.
On the season, he is averaging 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute, but both those numbers have been trending upwards over the past month when he has produced 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.28 FanDuel points per minute. In his past 10 games, he has averaged 29.5 points, 7.5 assists, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game for 48.8 DraftKings points per contest. He has dropped over 48 DKFP in six of those games, including a 56.75-DraftKings points performance earlier this week against the Nuggets.
The Trail Blazers have the biggest Pace Differential of any team on this slate, so this should be a pace-up spot to roll with Lillard in a huge matchup, and his salary is under $10K, which leaves you some flexibility in other spots as well.
Top Value: Markelle Fultz vs. Washington Wizards – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
One of the top value spots on Friday is projected to be the Orlando Magic, who will be without Moritz Wagner, Cole Anthony, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., R.J. Hampton, and Gary Harris due to suspensions for Wednesday night’s fight in Detroit. As a result, several Magic players are among the top values according to our Projected Plus/Minus on this slate. It also doesn’t hurt that they’re playing against the Wizards.
Fultz has already been playing pretty well recently, and now he’ll have to carry much more of the workload in the backcourt with Anthony, Hampton, and Harris out. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard on FanDuel and the second-highest on the entire slate. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate behind only Cory Joseph, who is priced at the minimum and expected to start in place of Killian Hayes, who will be serving his suspension from his part on the other side of the same brawl.
Fultz has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in eight of his past 10 games with an average Plus/Minus of 5.81 FanDuel points and 4.37 DraftKings points over that span. In those 10 games, he has averaged 12.3 points, 5.9 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.7 steals in 28 minutes per game. He had a season-high 24 points in one of those games and posted over 45 FanDuel points in two contests.
Without his suspended teammates, Fultz will likely have to play heavy minutes and spend most of the game as the chief ball-handler and creator on offense. His scoring and shooting have been streaky, but his role in the offense should result in good enough non-scoring numbers to make him, at worst, a safe play.
In addition, there’s also a chance that his shot is dropping, and he posts a monster number.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden at New Orleans Pelicans – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
The Beard is back! Actually, Harden has been back in the 76ers’ lineup since December 5. Still, he’s starting to put up big numbers on a regular enough basis that he’s becoming a fantasy centerpiece to consider whenever he’s on the slate. He has the highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, behind only DeMar DeRozan.
Harden has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past nine games with an impressive 6.76 average Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He has averaged 22.1 points, 12.8 assists, 6.2 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 51.8 FanDuel points in those nine contests and has posted over 60 FanDuel points in each of his three most recent games with huge double-doubles. He had 20 points, 21 assists, and 11 rebounds for 71.75 DraftKings points at the start of that three-game stretch of dominance and is a threat for that kind of ceiling game in what should be a pace-up spot in New Orleans.
While everyone will be focused on Zion Williamson vs. Joel Embiid down low, Harden is actually a strong play on the perimeter as well.
Top Value: Grayson Allen vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
With Jrue Holiday (illness) doubtful due to illness and Khris Middleton (knee) ruled out, Allen will have to step into a large role for the Bucks in this matchup with the Timberwolves. Allen brings extra eligibility at point guard on DraftKings and small forward on FanDuel, and he has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings.
On Wednesday, with both Holiday and Middleton out, Allen took a season-high 16 shots from the field, including a season-high 14 three-point attempts. He only finished with 13 points and 22.75 DraftKings points, but the potential is definitely there for a much bigger number if he gets similar opportunities in this matchup.
Allen has been starting all year for Milwaukee and has at least six points in nine of his past 11 games while also chipping in 3.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. With extra shots lined up to come his way again on Friday, he brings a high ceiling and is also a relatively safe play at this salary due to his regular contributions.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
DeRozan has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on FanDuel and the third-highest ceiling projection of all small forwards, behind only LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo (discussed below), who are both much more expensive. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest ceiling projection at small forward and the fourth-highest at power forward behind three players all priced over $10K.
DeRozan has led the Bulls to four wins in their past five games, including an upset win over the Bucks on Wednesday in which he had 42 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, two steals, and two blocks for 72.5 FanDuel points and 71 DraftKings points.
Over his past six games, he has averaged 29.8 points, 6.7 assists, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in 39.8 minutes per game with a 28.3% usage rate. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games on both FanDuel and DraftKings and has an average Plus/Minus of 11.26 FanDuel points during that timeframe.
This Friday, the Bulls and Pistons have the third-highest over/under on the board, with the Bulls bringing the second-highest Implied Team Total. The Pistons are the second-worst team in the NBA in Defensive Rating, so DeRozan should be set to return elite production at a salary that actually seems a little low given his recent results.
Top Value: Terrence Ross vs. Washington Wizards – $3,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Ross is another member of the Magic who should dramatically outproduce his salary, given the extra work he’s projected to receive on Friday. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and small forwards on DraftKings and the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive but still rates in the top 10 in projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward.
The 11-year veteran has only averaged 23 minutes this year for Orlando, chipping in 8.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists while mostly coming off the bench. He didn’t even play on Wednesday since it was the second game of a back-to-back, but he did contribute 13 points on Tuesday against the Lakers in 21 minutes.
Ross has had a few monster games when called upon to do more this season, including a 40-DraftKings-points performance against the Celtics and a 32-DraftKings-points performance against the Rockets. He doesn’t have to get all the way to that level to offer solid returns at this bargain price on Friday, but he does have that kind of a ceiling.
Especially if he ends up in the starting lineup, look for Ross to turn back the clock and put up a big night against Washington.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $11,900 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
Giannis is always a force to consider as a ceiling play when he’s on the slate, but he’s especially hard to overlook in this matchup when he’ll likely be without the other two members of Milwaukee’s big three. Antetokounmpo has the highest ceiling projection of all players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On FanDuel, he is also among the leaders in Projected Plus/Minus since his median projection is also the highest of all players on the slate.
With Middleton and Holiday off the floor this season, Giannis has a 41.2% usage rate and has produced 1.73 DraftKings points and 1.70 FanDuel points per minute.
Giannis scored over 25 points in all five of the games on the Bucks’ recent road trip, finishing the trip with a monster 45-point, 22-rebound performance in Wednesday’s loss to DeRozan’s Bulls. He finished with 84 DraftKings points and 79.9 FanDuel points in that game and averaged 62.6 DraftKings points over the five games on the trip.
Coming home and taking on the T-Wolves sets up Giannis for what should be another monster game since he’ll again have to carry the load with a slate-leading 40.18 usage projection.
Top Value: Patrick Williams vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Williams is questionable for this contest with a left clavicle contusion, but if he plays through the injury as projected, he should end up being a great source of value. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on both FanDuel and DraftKings and also can flex to small forward on both sites if needed for roster construction.
The third-year forward has outperformed salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his past 10 games. Over his past 12 games, he has averaged a solid 10.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.1 blocked shots while playing 33.9 minutes per game. He has played at least 37 minutes in each of his past four games, with at least 20 DraftKings points in each of those games.
The matchup is a juicy one against Detroit, and Williams is a solid mid-range option and can be part of a nice mini-stack along with DeRozan.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Miami Heat – $11,800 DraftKings, $12,100 FanDuel
There is plenty of star power at center on this slate, but Jokic has the second-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings, behind only Giannis.
Jokic has produced over 50 DraftKings points in 10 straight games while averaging 31.5 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.5 assists. He had at least a double-double in the first nine of those games and a triple-double in four of those contests. He played only 32 minutes on Wednesday’s second game of the back-to-back but still had 40 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and 59.25 DraftKings points.
With closer to his usual load of minutes, he should be set up for another big game as the Nuggets come home to try to handle the Heat.
Top Value: Onyeka Okongwu vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
On FanDuel, Okongwu has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate, and he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on DraftKings. Okongwu is expected to make another start in place of Clint Capela (calf) and should be able to find success against the Lakers, who have been a great matchup for opposing centers all season.
Okongwu is coming off one of his best games of the year. On Wednesday against the Nets, he played 37 minutes and finished with 43.25 DraftKings points and 44.1 FanDuel points on 18 points and 13 rebounds in his fifth double-double of the season.
Over the past nine games, Okongwu has averaged an impressive 11.9 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 1.7 blocked shots in 27.3 minutes per game, and he should again be in line for a potential low-level double-double. Getting him at this salary with his upside is a great way to fill the middle with good production, allowing you to pay up for superstars in other spots on your roster.
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