The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Houston Rockets – $12,500 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
With an off day for the entire NBA on Saturday, Friday has a 14-game mega-slate that includes every team but the Warriors and the Jazz. With 28 teams in action, the ceiling plays for today are a who’s who of the biggest fantasy stars in the NBA, starting with Luka, of course, at point guard.
Luka has the second-highest ceiling projection of the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel this Friday, and he has the highest ceiling projection at the position by almost 10 FanDuel points and almost nine DraftKings points. He gets a boost from an outstanding matchup against the Rockets, who have the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA and have allowed the most fantasy points per game to point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Doncic was inactive for the Mavs’ first game against the Rockets this season but looked fine on Wednesday in Minnesota, where he had 25 points, 10 assists, nine rebounds, three steals, and 57.25 DraftKings points in 37 minutes. It was just his second game back after missing a game with a quad issue, but he looks to have moved past that issue and is ready to resume his dominant December in this warmup for his Christmas Day matchup with the Lakers.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu at New York Knicks – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Dosunmu has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on DraftKings and the sixth-highest of point guards and fourth-highest of shooting guards on FanDuel. He’s remarkably cheap given his projected role with the Bulls, and he is projected to log over 30 minutes on Friday with Alex Caruso (concussion) already ruled out.
The second-year guard from Illinois played 35 minutes Wednesday with Caruso’s early departure and did his thing with low-volume but multi-category production. He finished with 20.6 FanDuel points and 19.75 DraftKings points on nine points, two assists, two steals, and three rebounds. He typically contributes some defensive numbers, assists, and rebounds and gets to around 10 points when he’s in a role like he’s projected to be on Friday.
Even though his ceiling projection isn’t insanely high since his usage is typically low, he’s worth a look as a reliable bargain play getting plenty of minutes. Paying all the way down for Dosunmu enables you to stuff stars in other spots across your roster.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Detroit Pistons – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
The biggest stars are almost all out on this slate, but shooting guard doesn’t have quite as many elite options as other spots, especially on DraftKings, where more of the superstar point guards aren’t eligible to flex over to shooting guard.
Instead of looking over $10K, one option to consider at this spot is Murray, who seems underpriced, under $9K on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Of the available shooting guards, Murray has the fourth-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings and the seventh-highest on FanDuel. That ranking isn’t necessarily jaw-dropping but it is significantly higher than his salary ranking on both sites.
Murray is a little cheaper since he just returned from a five-game absence due to injury. In his two games since returning, he has been shaking off some rust on his shot, shooting just 1-for-10 from three-point range, but he seemed ready to resume his role in the offense on Wednesday when he had 15 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and 35.25 DraftKings points against the Bulls.
The Hawks are in a good spot to set Murray up for success on Friday since they have the second-highest implied team total on the entire 28-team slate. The Pistons have the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA, so Atlanta should be ready to rev up their offense in this matchup against their visitors from the Motor City.
Top Value: Trey Murphy III at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
The Pelicans are set up to be a great source of value on the second night of their back-to-back since they are expected to be without Zion Williamson (health and safety protocols) for a second straight game. With his expanded role, Murphy has the highest projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings, where he also has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus at small forward. On FanDuel, Murphy is only eligible at small forward he brings the sixth-highest projected Plus/Minus at small forward.
Without Williamson on Thursday, the Pels dispatched the Spurs and Murphy scored 15 points to go with four rebounds, two steals and an assist on his way to 27.3 FanDuel points and 26 DraftKings points. He has at least 12 points in three of his past four games, averaging 12.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 21.9 DraftKings points per game over that stretch.
Murphy has shown he can get hot and score points in bunches, and he could be asked to carry the load in this fantasy-friendly matchup against the Thunder.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Charlotte Hornets – $10,900 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Without Anthony Davis (foot), James has been carrying the load for the Lakers, scoring at least 30 points in five straight games. The Lakers have the third-highest implied team total partly because the Hornets have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA. As a result, LeBron has the third-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only Luka and Nikola Jokic (discussed below).
The King took a royal day off on Monday in the second half of the Lakers’ back-to-back, but he returned on Wednesday to post 59.5 DraftKings points on 31 points, 11 assists, six boards, and two blocks. Over his past five games, he has averaged 32.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 1.0 steal with over 50 DraftKings points and FanDuel points in each contest.
In his 20th season, I’m not sure LeBron carrying the Lakers is a sustainable strategy, but I don’t think his run of good games will come to an end at home against the porous defense of the Hornets. Look for him to post another big total in the late game.
Top Value: Herbert Jones at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Like Murphy, Jones is set up to be a good source of value again without Zion against the Thunder. On DraftKings, Jones has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at small forward and the fourth-highest at power forward. On FanDuel, he’s only eligible at small forward, where he brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Jones stuffed the stat sheet on Thursday with 12 points, three rebounds, two assists, two steals, and a blocked shot for 24.75 DraftKings points and 25.6 FanDuel points in 34 minutes. Jones doesn’t have quite the pure scoring power of Murphy, but he is a little more balanced and reliable across non-scoring categories.
In his past four games, Jones has at least 23 DraftKings points three times and always gets plenty of minutes due to his defensive presence. Jones posted 32.75 DraftKings points in a nicely balanced line against the Thunder at the end of November and should be able to repeat that performance with more potential for offensive contribution without Williamson.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokoumpo at Brooklyn Nets – $12,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Antetokounmpo should be primed for a huge matchup against Kevin Durant and the Nets on Friday night before taking on Jayson Tatum and the Celtics on Sunday. The Bucks’ tour of the top teams in the Eastern Conference actually started Wednesday against the Cavaliers, and the Greek Freak delivered a massive 45-point performance with 14 rebounds, four assists, and 73.5 DraftKings points in the loss.
He is expected to produce another big game on Friday night and has the second-highest ceiling projection at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has outperformed salary-based expectations in three of his past four games and should continue to carry the load with Khris Middleton (knee) doubtful.
In his first matchup with the Nets this season, Giannis dropped 43 points and 74.5 DraftKings points, and he has a similar ceiling in this rematch.
Top Value: Kenyon Martin Jr. vs. Dallas Mavericks – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
While their record is still pretty uninspiring, the Rockets have actually been a very fun League Pass team this season, and their offense has enabled several value plays from their roster to emerge on a regular basis. On Friday, Martin has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel. He can slot into either forward position as a cheap play with good upside.
The reason Martin is projected so highly is that he’s expected to move into the starting lineup in place of Eric Gordon (thumb). Martin has made six starts this season and averaged 13.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 24.9 FanDuel points and 26.2 DraftKings points in 30.5 minutes per contest in that role.
Martin looked good in extra minutes on Wednesday as well, pouring in 18 points and reaching 30 Fanduel Points and 31.25 DraftKings points thanks to five rebounds, four assists, and a pair of three-pointers. He has shown a high ceiling due to his high energy and could even approach a double-double in this favorable matchup with the Mavs.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
Even with 28 teams in action, Jokic has the highest ceiling projection of all players on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has taken his game to another level over the past few weeks and is always worth considering as a pay-up option with an elite ceiling.
How elite is that ceiling? On Sunday, he exploded for an other-worldly 95.75 DraftKings points on 40 points, 27 rebounds, and 10 assists. It’s not like that’s his only big game recently, either, since he has over 55 DraftKings points in six straight games while averaging 30.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and 2.3 steals in 35.8 minutes per contest. He has three triple-doubles in that six-game span, with at least a double-double in each of those games.
The Joker’s impressive current run started with a matchup in Portland, where he had 60 DraftKings points on 33 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists. He’ll be at home in that same matchup on Friday and is again set up in a smash spot.
Top Value: Deandre Ayton vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $8,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Is Ayton at odds with his coach? Is that a big deal or a little deal? I’m not sure, but what I do know is that his production on the court has been very impressive lately, and he is projected to be a great value at center on this slate even though his salary isn’t extremely cheap.
In fact, Ayton has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all centers on the slate on FanDuel and comes in ranked No. 3 in that category at the position on DraftKings. Jonas Valanciunas is another option who definitely makes sense, but the veteran big-man did play 26 minutes last night, and New Orleans has been very cautious with his workload, making Ayton the better play if you are looking for a midrange-priced center.
Despite whatever off-court drama is going on, Ayton had 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 44.6 FanDuel points on Tuesday for his second straight double-double since returning from a two-game absence due to an ankle injury. Not counting the game he left early with that injury, Ayton has four straight double-doubles with at least 25 points and at least 44 FanDuel points in three of those games.
The Grizz-Suns matchup should be a fascinating one to watch, and Ayton’s numbers should make him a solid fantasy play.
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