NBA

NBA DFS (Friday, Dec. 22): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
Dec 22, 2023

On the calendar for Friday is a six-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox vs. Phoenix Suns – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel

Fox torched the Suns for 52.5 DraftKings points in Phoenix earlier this month and now hosts the division rival tonight. Fox leads the Suns with a career-high 33.1% usage rate, helping him score 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season, and tonight’s matchup carries the second-highest total of the slate (242.5 points). Additionally, Sacramento’s implied team total is the second largest on the board (123 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.

Fox has been a stud with 55.8 DraftKings PPG in totals of 240 points or greater this season (three games) and could get overlooked with many appealing expensive guards to consider Friday. Via FantasyLabs’ projections, the guard is expected to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Top Value: Jamal Murray at Brooklyn Nets – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel

Murray is forecasted for single-digit ownership on both sites tonight according to FantasyLabs’ projections and is a great, contrarian target in Brooklyn. Facing the Raptors in Toronto on Wednesday, the guard finished with 41.25 DraftKings points. Given the games are naturally more competitive, Murray has been 6.0 DraftKings PPG better on the road than when at home this season.

Tonight’s meeting in Brooklyn is expected to be competitive throughout, with Denver only favored by 4.5 points, and in spreads under five on the road this season, Murray is amassing 40.6 DraftKings PPG (four games), via the Trends Tool.

Especially at only $7,300 on DraftKings, the Kentucky product is a standout GPP play.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Tyler Herro vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel

With Jimmy Butler (ankle) sidelined, Herro is a terrific target against this Hawks club that ranks fifth in pace and 27^th in defensive efficiency. In the two starts the Kentucky product has made without Butler this season, Herro has responded with 42.4 DraftKings PPG, via the On/Off Tool. This game’s total is the third-highest total on the slate (237.5 points), and the Heat’s implied team total is the fifth-largest on the board (119.25 points), both of which are very high numbers for this slow-paced Miami squad.

Herro should flourish playing way up in pace vs. the Hawks and is vastly underpriced for his ceiling in this up-tempo spot.

Top Value: Jaden Hardy at Houston Rockets – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel

Hardy is a must-have value play with the Mavs extremely understaffed tonight. Luka Doncic (quad), Kyrie Irving (foot), Josh Green (elbow), Dante Exum (leg), Maxi Kleber (toe) and Derrick Lively II (ankle) have all been ruled out, while Seth Curry (back) is questionable. Hardy has to start in this scenario and handle a large workload. While there isn’t enough data on Hardy with all these ruled out players off the floor this season, he has played 89 minutes with just Doncic and Irving off the court, and in that sample, Hardy has seen a huge 31.7% usage rate and he has provided an excellent 1.4 DraftKings PPM.

Hardy is amassing 39.8 DraftKings PPG for the eight instances he has logged at least 25 minutes over the last two seasons and is good chalk we need to embrace tonight, regardless of this tough matchup vs. the Rockets, who rank second in defensive efficiency.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes at Philadelphia 76ers – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel

Barnes has been stuffing the stat sheet as of late, recording at least 52 DraftKings points in four of his past six starts. The forward is handling career-highs in usage (24.4%) and assist percentage (25%) this season and posted a near triple-double worth 46.5 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with the 76ers back in October. Tonight’s rematch carries a total of 230.5 points and the Raptors don’t compete in totals this high often. In the three totals of at least 230 points Barnes has played this season, he has supplied 49 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.

While Barnes has appeal on both sites, his $8,800 salary on DraftKings is a $500 drop since his last start and is just too low.

Top Value: Tim Hardaway Jr. at Houston Rockets – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel

While the veteran will likely still come off the bench, Hardaway Jr. is going to play starter-like minutes and command a large usage rate with the Mavs severely depleted tonight. In the 63 minutes he has played with both Doncic and Irving off the floor this season, Hardaway Jr.’s usage has skyrocketed 18.4 percentage points to a whopping 43.1%, and he has led Dallas with an elite 1.5 DraftKings PPM.

The pure scorer should effortlessly defeat these price tags, and just like Hardy, it is simply unavoidable tonight.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Sacramento Kings – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel

Bradley Beal (ankle) will remain sidelined tonight, and this is a prime spot for Durant, with the Kings ranking eighth in pace and 22^nd in defensive efficiency. As noted above, this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (242.5 points), and in the 17 starts the forward has made sans Beal this season, Durant has contributed 50.8 DraftKings PPG.

Durant has destroyed his opponents for 60.7 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 235 points this season (three games) and is one of the better lucrative plays to consider Friday.

Top Value: Trayce Jackson-Davis vs. Washington Wizards – $4,600 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel

While his floor is very low, Jackson-Davis brings terrific upside with Draymond Green suspended and is worth rolling the dice on in GPPs. In these first two games since the forward was suspended, Jackson-Davis has been sensational off the bench, scoring over 30 DraftKings points in each contest.

The rookie has led the Warriors in plus/minus in these last two (16.5) and has earned himself a sizeable role off the bench Friday. While inflated due to one overtime period, Jackson-Davis logged a career-high 28 minutes off the bench Tuesday vs. the Celtics. The 23-year-old should see at least 20 minutes tonight, and this is one of the best matchups he could ask for, with the Wizards ranking second in pace and second-to-last in defensive efficiency.

Golden State carries the highest total on the slate (129 points), and Jackson-Davis is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Green off the court this season.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Toronto Raptors – $11,200 DraftKings, $12,900 FanDuel

While he is worth having shares of on both sites, Embiid is criminally underpriced on DraftKings and is a must-play at $11,200, which is the cheapest he has been priced in 10 games. Embiid is playing the best basketball of his career right now and has quickly become the frontrunner to win his second straight MVP award. Embiid is coming off a 77 DraftKings point explosion vs. the Wolves and their league-best defense and has now eclipsed 70 DraftKings points six times in his last 10 starts. Overall, the center leads the NBA in usage (38.9%) and DraftKings PPM (1.9).

The Raptors rank 19^th in defensive efficiency, and the 76ers sport the third-highest total on the slate (120 points). For the eight times Embiid has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, the big man is averaging 70.1 DraftKings PPG, and he has scored at least 61 DraftKings points in every start.

Top Value: Daniel Gafford at Golden State Warriors – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel

Gafford has flashed great upside as of late, scoring at least 35 DraftKings points in five of his last 10 starts, including a season-high 56.75 DraftKings point outing vs. the Suns and a 45.5 DraftKings point effort vs. the Blazers last night. The difference in these five great performances has been these games have stayed competitive enough that the contest is decided by single-digit points.

The Warriors are 12-point favorites tonight, but the Wizards enter tonight as winners of two of their last four and they have lost by double-digits only once during this four-game stretch. Furthermore, Washington is 11-6 ATS on the road this season, which is the best in the NBA. In simpler terms, the Wizards are a strong bet to cover tonight and this game should stay competitive enough that Gafford receives a full workload.

The center has exceeded 30 DraftKings points at a 54% clip when playing at a road underdog this season and is a terrific mid-tier GPP target.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.