The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $10,800 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
There are plenty of elite point guards in play on Friday night on the NBA’s 11-game slate, and on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Morant and Stephen Curry check in with the top two ceiling projections. Curry has a slightly higher ceiling projection on DraftKings, but Morant has the highest ceiling projection on FanDuel and is a little better play overall since he has a higher median projection and floor projection on each site. Morant is in a good matchup against the 76ers’ injury-depleted backcourt.
Since returning from his ankle injury that only cost him one game somehow, Morant has averaged 27.0 points, 9.3 assists, 6.5 rebounds and 1.3 steals for 51.6 DraftKings points and 47.9 FanDuel points. He showed off his ceiling with a massive triple-double against the Knicks in New York last Sunday, posting 65 DraftKings points and 59 FanDuel points on 27 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds.
For Friday’s slate, Morant has the highest projected usage of all the point guards on the slate and should be busy enough to reach his high ceiling.
Top Value: Cameron Payne vs. Houston Rockets – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Payne brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings behind only Collin Sexton (discussed below). Payne has been stepping up while filling in for Chris Paul (heel), who will miss his 12th straight game in this matchup against the up-tempo Rockets. The Suns have a positive pace differential against Houston, who has been one of the best matchups for opposing point guards all season.
While Paul has been out, Payne has started 11 straight games, averaging 15.6 points, 6.7 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 0.9 steals in 31.4 minutes per game. His production has tailed off a little relative to his salary in his past few games but this should be a good bounce-back spot for him and a good chance to buy him as a value after his salary has come down almost $1,000 in the past week on both sites.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Houston Rockets – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Booker has the highest ceiling projection at shooting guard by a wide margin on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the same great matchup against the Rockets that gives Payne a boost. Booker has been carrying most of the Suns’ offense while Chris Paul (heel) has been sidelined.
Over those 11 games, he has a 31.5% usage rate and poured in 30.7 points to go with 6.4 assists, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per contest. He has taken his domination to another level in his two most recent games, going off for 44 points and 71.6 FanDuel points against the Kings, followed by 51 points and 65.8 FanDuel points in just 31 minutes in a runaway win on Wednesday against the Bulls.
Booker, Payne, and the Suns have the third-highest implied team total on the slate and should be ready to run up the score against the Rockets.
Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. Indiana Pacers – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Sexton has played a more predominant role in the Jazz offense as they continue to adjust to the absence of Mike Conley (leg), who will miss his seventh straight contest. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He trails only Cameron Payne on FanDuel and Joe Harris on DraftKings.
In his first year in Utah, Sexton’s role was in flux from game to game before Conley’s injury, but he has moved into the starting five for each of the past seven games. He has scored at least 10 points in each of those starts, averaging 16.3 points, 6.2 assists and 2.5 rebounds. He has at least five assists in each of his past five games and over 30 DraftKings points in four of those past five contests.
Sexton brings a nice ceiling since he produces in multiple categories, and getting him at this salary makes him one of the best values on the slate. Only Payne has a better Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel, while Sexton checks in at No. 7 on the whole slate on DraftKings.
The Jazz have the second-highest Implied Points Total on the slate in what should be a pace-up spot against the Pacers, who play at the third-fastest Pace in the entire NBA.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Miami Heat – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Tatum has the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on DraftKings and is second on FanDuel only to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Tatum’s Celtics will be facing the Heat for the second straight game in Boston. On Wednesday, Tatum went off for 49 points and 11 rebounds on his way to 76.26 DraftKings points and 71.7 FanDuel points. His ceiling projection isn’t quite that high in this rematch, but that shows how productive he can be at his best and how much of a mismatch he is against the injury-plagued Heat.
Tatum has scored at least 30 points in four straight games, shooting 54.3% from the field and 41% from long range. He has also been posting good rebound numbers with at least seven boards in nine of his past 10 games, earning a double-double in five of those contests.
Since Tatum has over 50 DraftKings points in seven of his past 10 games, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those seven games. He’s emerging as a true MVP candidate and regularly showing his ceiling as a DFS cornerstone.
Top Value: Trey Murphy III at San Antonio Spurs – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Murphy has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While C.J. McCollum may be ready to return for this matchup, Brandon Ingram (toe) will remain sidelined, opening opportunities for Murphy.
In the game in which Ingram was injured last Friday, Murphy had 21 points and 29.1 FanDuel points in his return last week from his own injury. In the two games since then, he has started and played over 36 minutes. He had 20 points and 34.2 FanDuel points against the Thunder, followed by 26 points and 37.5 FanDuel points against the Raptors. The Pelicans won both of those contests and will be favored to make it three in a row against the Spurs on Friday.
Even if McCollum returns and his usage drops slightly, Murphy should still get enough usage to be a strong sub-$6K value play with upside on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetkounmpo vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $12,300 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Antetkounmpo and the Bucks host LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers on Friday in one of the marquee matchups on the slate. Antetkoumpo has the highest ceiling of any power forward on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, trailing only Davis’s ceiling projection on the other side of the same contest. Giannis is projected for the highest usage of any player on the slate, and the Bucks have the second-highest Pace Differential since the Lakers play at the fastest Pace in the NBA.
After a brief lull and some free throw issues, Giannis has turned things around dramatically and out-produced even his lofty salary expectations in three of his past five contests. He has at least 30 points in five straight games while averaging 35.6 points, 10.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 59.3 DraftKings points.
In this favorable spot against the Lakers with a chance to get a statement win, Giannis could be poised to continue going off with a monster game Friday night.
Top Value:
Keita Bates-Diop vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
The Spurs have ruled out Jakob Poeltl (knee) and Jeremy Sochan (quad) for this game against the Pelicans, which should open the door for Bates-Diop to carry a bigger load. He is projected to play 31.4 minutes with a 16.2% projected usage rate. While he has been on the floor this year, KBD has produced 0.83 FanDuel points and 0.82 DraftKings points per minute, and his bigger role gives him the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
On Wednesday, Bates-Diop made his sixth start of the season and finished with 11 points, three rebounds and 17.6 FanDuel points. In his starts, he has never produced under 17 FanDuel points, which is enough to give him a good floor if he draws into the starting five once again. He has also shown good upside in his expanded role and reached over 29 FanDuel points in two of those starts.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Memphis Grizzlies – $11,300 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Embiid has the highest projected ceiling of all the players on the slate since he is carrying so much of the workload for the 76ers in the absence of James Harden (foot) and Tyrese Maxey (foot). Additionally, Tobias Harris (illness) is questionable, which could leave even more work for Embiid.
In his two games since returning from his own injury, Embiid had usage rates of 35.0% and 35.4%. He had 30 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, and 56.5 DraftKings in his first game back on Monday against the Hawks, but then he only logged 29 minutes against the Cavs on Wednesday in a game that turned into a blowout. He should be rested as a result and ready to go off against the Grizzlies.
Embiid has put up over 55 DraftKings points in six of his past eight games and has exceeded salary expectations in each of those six contests.
Top Value: Zach Collins vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
On DraftKings, where he’s still under $5K, Collins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on this slate. On FanDuel, there are a few other options that check in ahead of him, but he still comes in as the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus at center.
Since joining the Spurs before last season, Collins has put up decent per-minute numbers but hasn’t had an expanded opportunity due to continued injury issues. Without Poeltl and Sochan, though, Collins is expected to get a second straight start. On Wednesday, he had 22 DraftKings points and 20.7 FanDuel points in his first start of the season. He had nine points, six rebounds, three assists, and a steal in his 27 minutes.
Collins has nice speculative upside in this matchup and should get the minutes to fill in multiple categories on the stat sheet. He isn’t quite as cheap as his teammate, Bates-Diop, but he actually brings a higher ceiling based on his per-minute numbers when healthy and his projected usage.
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