Friday presents an eight-game slate, with four of these matchups being rematches from Wednesday night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton at Washington Wizards – $11,300 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
Expect a big bounce-back performance from Haliburton tonight after his minutes were cut short during Wednesday’s blowout loss to the Bucks. The blossoming star couldn’t ask for a better matchup than facing the Wizards. Not only does Washington rank dead last in defensive efficiency, but the Pacers and Wizards rank first and second in pace this season, respectively.
This track meet presents the highest total the NBA has seen this season (258.5 points) and Indiana’s implied team total is also the largest a club has seen this season (133.5 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
With a 26.9% usage rate and a league-high 46.2% assist percentage, Haliburton is generating 1.6 DraftKings PPM this season. The 23-year-old is amassing 59 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 240 points this season (11 games) and should redeem himself with a huge stat line tonight.
Top Value: Dennis Schroder vs. Atlanta Hawks – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Schroder posted 35.75 DraftKings points vs. the Hawks on Wednesday and gets to face them again on Friday. Atlanta ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and fifth in pace, which is a huge pace increase for this Raptors’ squad that ranks 19th in pace.
After Wednesday’s matchup produced a whipping 263 points, tonight’s rematch between the Raptors and Hawks carries the second-highest total on the slate (243 points). Furthermore, after seeing their highest implied total of the season on Wednesday, Toronto’s implied team total is even higher on Friday (122.25 points).
Schroder is handling a 21.7% usage rate this season and should effortlessly beat these reasonable salaries in this elite environment, which is a very situation for this slow Toronto squad. Albeit a limited sample of only two games, Schroder is averaging 38.9 DraftKings PPG in totals of 230 points or greater this season, via the Trends Tool.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Terry Rozier vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $8,600 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Rozier can’t be stopped right now and remains an excellent spend, especially at less than $9K on DraftKings. With LaMelo Ball (out, foot) sidelined, Rozier flourished as the Hornets’ alpha, scoring 53.5 DraftKings PPG in his last six starts.
During this span, Rozier has led Charlotte with a 26.2% usage rate and 45.1% assist percentage. The ex-Celtic has exposed some tough defenses for big numbers during this stretch and should continue his impressive run Friday against this average Pelicans’ defense which ranks 15th in efficiency this season.
Top Value: Austin Reaves at San Antonio Spurs – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Reaves has been superb and is simply too cheap for his current form. The Lakers’ sixth man has recorded at least 35 DraftKings in four straight games while shooting 56% from the field during this time. The Spurs are an elite matchup, ranking third in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and Los Angeles’ implied team ranks fifth on the slate tonight (120.75 points).
Reaves is providing 35.6 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season. His role would reach new heights if either LeBron James (questionable, calf) or Anthony Davis (questionable, adductor) were out.
Davis feels more likely to play after playing through his questionable tag, but there is a chance James is out for the second straight.
With the 38-year-old off the court this season, Reaves’ usage has risen 2.6 percentage points, and his assist rate has jumped 6.1 percentage points, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram at Charlotte Hornets – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
After missing Wednesday’s win over the Wizards after initially being questionable, Zion Williamson (ankle) is questionable again Friday, and as we saw Wednesday, his potential absence is slate-altering news. Specifically, Ingram dominated with Williamson inactive and will be a tremendous target again if the forward remains sidelined.
With Williamson out Wednesday, Ingram erupted for 49 DraftKings points in only 30 minutes of work vs. the Wizards. The wing finds himself in another terrific spot Friday, with the Hornets ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, and with Williamson off the floor this season, Ingram’s usage has increased 4.2 percentage points to a team-high 34.2% and he has led New Orleans with 1.3 DraftKings PPM.
Top Value: Bilal Coulibaly vs. Indiana Pacers – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Coulibaly has been playing a much bigger role for the Wizards recently and is an appealing GPP target in this mammoth total vs. the Pacers, which, as noted above, is the highest the NBA has seen this season (258.5 points). In his last five games, Coulibaly has generated 27.5 DraftKings points in 29.2 minutes off the bench.
This uber-fast-paced setting is perfect for Coulibaly to stuff the stat sheet, and his fantasy stock would become even stronger if Jordan Poole (questionable, ankle) ends up sitting.
Coulibaly’s production increases to 0.84 DraftKings PPM with Poole off the court, and he would be a lock to see 30+ minutes if Poole is inactive, starter or not.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $9,100 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
While priced more appropriately on FanDuel, Wembanyama is a stellar value at $9,100 on DraftKings. The rookie is coming off a career-high 68.25 DraftKings points vs. the Lakers at home Wednesday and will host the club again tonight. This explosion marked the fourth time in Wembanyama’s last five starts at home that he has scored over 50 DraftKings points.
Unsurprisingly, at 19 years old, Wembanyama has been a totally different player on his home floor during his rookie season, producing nearly 10 more DraftKings PPG than when on the road.
Wembanyama is amassing 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 30.2% usage rate and is a top-three value on DraftKings tonight in FantasyLabs’ models.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $6,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Just like Wembanyama, we need to go right back to Johnson for tonight’s rematch with the Lakers. Johnson finished with 47.75 DraftKings points in the first of these back-to-back home meetings with Los Angeles on Wednesday, and similar to Wembanyama, Johnson has been much more comfortable at home this season, averaging 7.6 DraftKings PPG more than when competing away from San Antonio.
Johnson is supplying 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 20.3% usage rate this season, and tonight’s rematch with the Lakers carries the fourth-highest total on the slate (234 points).
For the last five occasions Johnson has played in a total of at least 230 points on his home floor, the forward has recorded at least 43 DraftKings points four times. At these reasonable price tags, Johnson is without question one of the best values on the board Friday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Detroit Pistons – $11,800 DraftKings, $12,600 FanDuel
Embiid destroyed the Pistons for 67.25 DraftKings points Wednesday and meets the lowly team again tonight, this time on his home floor. Wednesday marked Embiid’s eighth straight performance of at least 60 DraftKings points and his second effort over 60 DraftKings points vs. Detroit this season.
The reigning MVP is leading the NBA in usage this season (37.9%) and scoring a godly 1.85 DraftKings PPM. This struggling Pistons team has dropped 21 games in a row, and they rank 24th in defensive efficiency for the season. Furthermore, evident from Embiid’s huge outing Wednesday, Detroit doesn’t have a single player that has any chance of stopping Embiid, with Jalen Duren (ankle) and Marvin Bagley (back) missing their straight collectively.
Embiid has scored nothing less than 67 DraftKings when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season and is a very strong bet to lead this slate in fantasy points.
Top Value: Jakob Poeltl vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Continuing with games that are rematches of Wednesday, Poeltl is too cheap for this second consecutive matchup with the Hawks. The center posted a double-double worth a season-high 46.75 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s home win over Atlanta. Poeltl is now averaging 32.1 DraftKings PPG at home this season – which is 7.3 more than when on the road – and this is a prime spot for him, with the Hawks giving up the fourth most points in the paint, in addition to their defensive woes and high pace.
Another outburst over 40 fantasy points is possible for Poeltl tonight, and he may get slightly overlooked, with most people prioritizing other Raptors on Friday.
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