The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Chicago Bulls – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
With just a few days before the NBA regular season comes to a close, things are sure to get wild on Friday’s 11-game NBA slate. There are still some strong options to build around, though, that our models can help you pinpoint. One of the best options to spend up on is Docic, who has the highest ceiling projection of all players across all positions on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Doncic and the Mavs enter play this Friday 0.5 games behind the Thunder for the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. Since returning from his last injury, Doncic has been putting up big numbers while trying to carry his squad to the postseason. In his eight games since returning, he has averaged 51.9 DraftKings points and 50.2 FanDuel points per game while producing 1.44 DraftKings points and 1.4 FanDuel points per minute with a 34.8% usage rate.
Both he and Kyrie Irving are probable, but as long as the Mavs decide to continue their playoff push, look for Luka to light it up against the Bulls on Friday night. The Mavs have the third-highest implied team total on the slate.
Top Value: Jevon Carter vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $6,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
The Bucks host the Grizzlies on Friday night, but they have already announced that Jrue Holiday (rest), Khris Middleton (knee), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) will not play. With those stars off the floor, there will be a ton of usage for the rest of the Bucks, creating lots of value for Carter, who is the top point guard in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Without those three players on the floor, Carter has a 27.0% usage rate since the All-Star break and has produced 0.89 DraftKings points and 0.85 FanDuel points per minute. He’s projected for a 24.5% usage rate in 32 minutes on Monday, which should be enough for him to easily return value.
Carter started and produced 16 points, 25.5 DraftKings points, and 22.8 FanDuel points on Wednesday but showed an even higher ceiling earlier this season when carrying more of the load like he’ll be asked to do in this contest.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Immanuel Quickley at New Orleans Pelicans – $9,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
The Knicks ruled out Jalen Brunson (hand) for this contest, and RJ Barrett (illness) is questionable. That should leave plenty of heavy lifting for IQ, who has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on DraftKings and the second-highest behind only Luka on FanDuel. Also, on FanDuel, where he’s very under-priced, Quickley also brings the second-highest Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past six games with an Average Plus/Minus of 17.3 FanDuel points. He dominated with 39 points, nine assists, 66.5 DraftKings points, and 63.7 FanDuel points in 40 minutes on Wednesday against the Pacers. Check out what that big game looked like in our Game Flow tool:
In his past six games, Quickley has a 28.9% usage rate and has produced 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute. Especially without Brunson and potentially Barrett, Quickley is a great high-volume option to build your lineup around this Friday.
Top Value: Jay Scrubb at Brooklyn Nets – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The Magic are going to be extremely short-handed for their trip to Brooklyn and could be without Paulo Banchero (back), Wendell Carter Jr. (hip), Markele Fultz (knee), Gary Harris (adductor), Franz Wagner (ankle), and Moritz Wagner (ankle). All those players were listed as out, but several are now questionable. Make sure to keep a close eye on the news leading up to tipoff. Honestly, that doesn’t leave much, but the players it does leave will likely log heavy minutes and get plenty of usage.
As a result, Scrubb has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the third-highest at the position on FanDuel. Jalen Suggs edges him out on DraftKings, but Suggs has been priced up a little on FanDuel, while Scrubb is still under $4K.
Scrubb was actually a draft pick of the Nets in 2020 before he was traded to the Clippers. He has only played two games this season. He showed some upside Thursday, though, with 11 points, five rebounds, 22.25 DraftKings points, and 21.5 FanDuel points in 28 minutes.
In his 28 games with the Lakeland Magic in the G League, Scrubb averaged 21.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 30.6 minutes per game. He can score from long range and should be poised for a chance to return huge value in this matchup.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram vs. New York Knicks – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Ingram has the highest ceiling projection at small forward on DraftKings and the second-highest behind only Jimmy Butler (discussed below) on FanDuel. He leads the Pelicans into this critical home game against the Knicks. The Pelican are No. 8 coming into the day but just one game behind fifth place and one game ahead of ninth place.
Ingram has produced over 50 fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel in five of his past eight games. During that run, he has averaged 50.0 DraftKings points and 49.9 FanDuel points at a rate of 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute.
On Wednesday, Ingram played a season-high 46 minutes while pushing the Pelicans past Memphis. He totaled 24 points, 13 assists, and six rebounds in that game for a total of 57.0 DraftKings points and 55.7 FanDuel points.
With that much work coming his way, Ingram should continue to try to carry his team to the postseason, making him a good fantasy play to build around.
Top Value: Tari Eason at Charlotte Hornets – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
The Rockets are expected to give Eason plenty of work, with Jae’Sean Tate (left knee soreness) unlikely to play the rest of the season. The Bucket from the Bayou brings good upside if he keeps getting volume. He ranks in the top five of Projected Plus/Minus at both forward spots on DraftKings and also in the top five at small forward on FanDuel.
Eason played 33 minutes against the Nuggets on Tuesday with 11 points, seven rebounds, 26.25 DraftKings points, and 26.9 FanDuel points.
Dating back to March 20, Eason has produced 0.91 DraftKings points and 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over nine games. In an up-tempo contest against the Hornets, he brings a high ceiling since he’s projected to play 28 minutes.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Washington Wizards – $8,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Like with the stars listed above, Butler will be leading his team in a game that has major playoff implications on Friday night. As a result, he’s projected for a 33.9% usage rate and brings the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards, and second-most at power forward on FanDuel. He’s also in the top three in ceiling projection at both forward spots and DraftKings.
The Heat are sitting seventh coming into the day but are just one game behind the Nets for the final spot in the playoffs that avoids the play-in tournament. Butler has powered the Heat to three straight wins to close in on the Nets, including a 28-point rout of his former team, the 76ers, on Thursday. The best news from that game is that he only had to play 29 minutes, so he should be relatively fresh and ready for another big game on the second night of the back-to-back in Washington.
During that three-game winning streak, Butler has contributed in every fantasy category and produced 1.44 DraftKings points and 1.48 FanDuel points per minute. The Wizards should be a good spot for Miami to get another win and Butler to post another big game as they try to get right for the postseason.
Top Value: Bobby Portis vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $7,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Even though he isn’t a bargain basement play, Portis does bring a lot of value since he should be able to outproduce his salary expectations without Giannis, Middleton and Holiday. He has a high enough Projected Plus/Minus to rank him in the top three of both power forward and center on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
With those three players off the floor, Portis has a team-high 29.1% usage rate since the All-Star break. He has produced 1.5 DraftKings points and 1.42 FanDuel points in that scenario, and since he’ll move into the starting lineup and be one of the key pieces of the offense in this matchup, he should be in for a large workload and a big game.
Center
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Phoenix Suns – $10,700 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Davis is questionable for this contest against the Suns, but he has been regularly playing through the tag lately and putting up big numbers. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of all players at all positions, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his past five contests.
He had a massive ceiling game with a 30-point, 20-rebound performance early in March against the Grizzlies. Dating back to that contest 14 games ago, Davis is producing 50.4 DraftKings points and 49.3 FanDuel points per game at a rate of 1.4 DraftKings points and 1.37 FanDuel points per minute. He has posted nine double-doubles in those 14 games while falling one rebound short in the other nine contests.
On Wednesday, Davis played a lighter workload since he was playing the second game of a back-to-back, but he should be back to his full role for this matchup against the Suns, who may end up resting many regulars and creating a smash spot for AD.
Top Value: Bol Bol at Brooklyn Nets – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
The Magic are probably the best place to target bargain basement plays across the board, and center is no exception. It could end up that Bol Bol and Goga Bitadze carry the load for Orlando up front, and we saw earlier this season that Bol can stuff the stat sheet in the right spot.
Bol has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player at any position on this slate and is projected to get a 22.9% usage rate in 29.1 minutes.
He moved into the starting lineup on Thursday after not playing at all in the team’s previous seven contests. He looked pretty good with 18 points, eight rebounds, 31 DraftKings points, and 28.1 FanDuel points.
Without much to play for, it would make sense for the Magic to see what Bol can contribute, and he’ll be a steal for under $4K if he gets a second straight start.
