DraftKings’ main slate for Friday includes the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Boston Celtics – $10,200
While going into Boston and upsetting the Celtics is a difficult task, tonight is a must-win for the Suns, as they are only one game back of the Kings for the final Play-In Tournament spot in the Western Conference. Bradley Beal (hamstring) will be returning, but Kevin Durant (ankle) remains sidelined, leaving Booker with a huge role.
While Beal was inactive for this tilt, Booker is coming off a 59.75 DraftKings point showing vs. the Bucks, in which he saw a 39.3% usage rate and a whopping 43.2 minutes of work. Booker should barely leave the floor again tonight in Boston, and with Durant off the court this season, Booker is leading Phoenix with 1.2 DraftKings PPM. Given the circumstances for Phoenix tonight, Booker brings arguably the highest ceiling on the slate.
Top Value: Chris Paul vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,300
With the Spurs down Victor Wembanyama (shoulder), De’Aaron Fox (finger), and Jeremy Sochan (back), Paul is a strong punt play. The veteran has made five starts without those three players this season, and Paul is scoring 35.9 DraftKings points in 29.2 minutes per game on those occasions. In those contests, the guard’s usage increases 5.5 percentage points, and his assist rate rises 6.2 percentage points.
This matchup with the Cavaliers carries the highest total on the slate (241.5 points), and Paul is a top-three value on the slate in this projected shootout.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shaedon Sharpe at Chicago Bulls – $7,600
If Anfernee Simons (forearm) misses his third game in a row, Sharpe will be unavoidable against the Bulls, who are leading the NBA in pace since the All-Star break. The guard has been brilliant with Simons out for the last two, scoring 56 and 57 DraftKings points, while handling a 29% usage rate and logging 36.5 minutes per game.
This game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (236 points), and the Trail Blazers still have an outside chance to make the Play-In Tournament, as they are only 2.5 games behind the Kings for the final spot. If Simons is inactive, Simons will be a strong bet for over 50 DraftKings points in this situation.
Top Value: Julian Champagnie vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,100
Just like with Paul, Champagnie is one of the primary beneficiaries for the Spurs with Wembanyama, Fox and Sochan all out. In those five games sans these three players, Champagnie is producing 27.5 DraftKings points in 29.9 minutes per game with a 19% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
Champagnie is simply underpriced for his expected role tonight and can be rostered with full confidence in all formats.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Deni Avdija at Chicago Bulls – $9,400
Avdija has been playing at an All-Star level. In his last three starts, Avdija has scored 53.25, 72.25, and 60.75 DraftKings points. The forward has topped 50 DraftKings points in seven of his last 12 starts, and Avdija is leading Portland with 1.4 DraftKings PPM since the All-Star break, while receiving a 25.8% usage rate and 33.6 minutes per game.
The Trail Blazers have won two in a row, and they are still alive for a Play-In spot, so Avdija should continue to see huge volume tonight. Plus, this is an elite spot for him to flourish, as the Bulls have been the fastest team in the NBA since the All-Star break. Avdija is a great target no matter what, but if Simons remains sidelined, Avdija will be a must-play.
Top Value: Brice Sensabaugh at Indiana Pacers – $4,700
Sensabaugh is a standout option at this sub-$5,000 price with the Jazz very shorthanded. Lauri Markkanen (knee), John Collins (ankle), Jordan Clarkson (foot), and Walker Kessler (nose) are all out tonight, and in the nine games Utah has been without these four players this season, Sensabaugh is averaging 25.6 DraftKings points in 27 minutes per game with a 23.6% usage rate.
The Pacers rank 10th in pace since the All-Star Break and have the potential for over 30 DraftKings points in this fast-paced setting.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyle Filipowski at Indiana Pacers – $7,100
Filipowski is another compelling target for the understaffed Jazz. In those nine games without Markkanen, Collins, Clarkson and Kessler this season, Filipowski is amassing 34.1 DraftKings points in 26.9 minutes per game with a 20% usage rate.
The big man has scored at least 35 DraftKings points in four of his last six games and this is a strong spot for Filipowski, with the Pacers giving up the third-most points in the paint this season.
Top Value: Harrison Barnes vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,800
Barnes is way underpriced for the situation the Spurs find themselves in Friday. In the the five games San Antonio has been missing Wembanyama, Fox and Sochan, Barnes has been excellent with 31.5 DraftKings points in 30.4 minutes per game with a 20% usage rate.
Barnes has been 3.6 DraftKings PPG better at home than when on the road this season, and Barnes is an easy choice at less than $4,000 on DraftKings. In our ShotQuality projections, Barnes is the No.1 value on the slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Charlotte Hornets – $10,100
Every game is a must-win for the Kings right now, as they only hold a one-game lead over the Suns for the final Play-In Tournament spot in the Western Conference. Sabonis is fresh off a 50.5 DraftKings point near triple-double vs. the Wizards and this is a plus spot, as the Hornets rank 26th in defensive rating since the All-Star break.
The Kings are an 11-point favorite over Charlotte tonight, but this no cause for concern for Sabonis. When competing as a double-digit favorite this season, Sabonis has dominated his opponents for 54.5 DraftKings PPG (five games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Paul Reed at Toronto Raptors – $3,800
With Isaiah Stewart unavailable for one more game due to his suspension, Reed is a terrific punt play. With Stewart out Wednesday, Reed took over as the Pistons’ backup center and posted 23.25 DraftKings points in 14.3 minutes, despite going against the Thunder, who are the No.1 defense in the league this season.
Reed is averaging 21.9 DraftKings PPG in the seven games Stewart has missed this season and Friday presents a much easier matchup for Reed, facing the Raptors, who rank 16th in defensive rating. Reed should exceed 20 DraftKings points and can be trusted for all formats.
