The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Washington Wizards – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Dejounte Murray has been incredible to start the season. This is the first time he has been priced at $10,000 on FanDuel, but it feels deserved. Murray has had 50 FanDuel points or higher in five of his last six games. If we take out the game at Minnesota, Murray has averaged 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 9.4 assists during that time. In those five games he has a Plus/Minus of +13.75 on FanDuel while playing an average of 37.2 minutes.
Murray makes more sense on FanDuel where the discount to Luka Doncic is greater. Doncic is probably safer for cash games, but the difference in salary between the two is relevant. Murray leads the Spurs in points, rebounds, assists, and steals this season. The Wizards are a top-10 defense, but Murray runs this entire Spurs team. I love getting to Murray in tournaments tonight, especially as a home underdog.
Top Value: Jalen Suggs at Philadelphia 76ers – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Jalen Suggs was already having a fine rookie season, but since Cole Anthony went down due to injury he has really stepped it up even more. He has had a positive Plus/Minus in six of his last seven games, despite the Magic only winning one of those games. They have lost their last six games by an average of 16.7 points per game. That hasn’t stopped Suggs from putting up 26 or more DraftKings points in five of those six games.
Using our On/Off tool, Suggs has played 304 minutes this season without Anthony on the floor, which is the most on the team. He leads the entire Magic with a 26.7% usage rate during that time. There may be some other value point guards who pop up throughout the day due to injuries, but right now I really like looking to Suggs for value.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. Charlotte Hornets – $8,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
The highest over/under on the slate tonight is this matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets at 224 points. My favorite player to target in this game is Zach LaVine who will lead everyone on the floor in usage rate with 30.2% as he is scoring 25.3 points per game. On FanDuel he is fantastic to get too as he has a 95% Bargain Rating.
This home matchup for the Bulls against the Hornets is really juicy. The Hornets rank 24th in Defensive Rating, third in Pace, and they have given up 114 points per game. We all know LaVine for his ridiculous athleticism. He should have plenty of chances to display that tonight as the Bulls lead the league in transition points per possession while the Hornets have allowed the fifth most transition possessions. LaVine should thrive in this fast-paced game.
Top Value: Anfernee Simons at Utah Jazz – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
This game between the Trail Blazers and Jazz isn’t as appealing as the Bulls and Hornets, but it sure is close. They have an over/under of 223 points which is the second-highest on the slate. The Jazz are 7.5-point favorites, which could actually work in our favor if this game ends up as a blowout since we have value shooting guard Anfernee Simons.
Norman Powell is out due to injury, his third missed game of the season. In his previous two missed games, Simons averaged 14.5 points per game and attempted 11.5 field goals per game. This is a nice increase from playing with Powell this season where Simons has averaged 11.6 points per game and attempted 9.6 field goals per game. Simons steps right into the role as the third best scorer without Powell. This matchup against the Jazz is tough on the road, but Simons should get a lot of looks in this high total game.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
One of the more disappointing players lately has been none other than Paul George. He has had a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 12 of his last 14 games! He hasn’t scored over 50 DraftKings points in six-straight games with his lowest output being 31.75 points. George needs a bounce-back game, and I feel this is it.
George is second in the entire league in usage rate this season with 34.5%. He is averaging a career-high 22 field goal attempts per game. The volume is not a problem and that’s what you like to see when you roster a player in DFS. This matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans is one in which George should be able to take advantage in. The Pelicans rank 26th in Defensive Rating this season. The Clippers are 7-point favorites tonight with an implied total of 109.25 points. We know George is going to have his handprint on most of the fantasy scoring for the Clippers.
I prefer George on FanDuel tonight where he has a 95% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Max Strus vs Denver Nuggets – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
With Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro both questionable, that could really open the flood gates for the Miami Heat if both are ruled out. Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo would be the public’s first inclination, but I would much rather go to a value play due to this extremely low total at 208, which is the second lowest on the slate. The Nuggets play at the second-slowest Pace this season and have allowed only 103.5 points per game.
Max Strus is the value player who catches my eye. He is an average value play if Butler and Herro play tonight, but if one or both sit this price is too cheap for Strus. With Herro out last game, Strus played a season-high 31 minutes and had 13 points and four rebounds. He shot a season-high 11 field goal attempts, but was only able to connect on four of them. I am not sure how much buzz Strus will get even if Herro and Butler are out. There may be some value in a low-owned Strus tonight. Make sure to monitor the status of Herro and Butler before plugging him into those lineups.
Note: Max Strus is only SG eligible on FanDuel, which makes him tougher to get to.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Minnesota Timberwolves – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
The upper pricing tier for power forward tonight on DraftKings is non-existent, especially when I already wrote up Paul George. The highest rated power forward in our Tournament Model is Domantas Sabonis who has been extremely disappointing this season. Rostering Sabonis this season has been a roller-coaster. This price tag is tied for his lowest all season. He has had over 40 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle has been really inconsistent when it comes to Sabonis and his minutes. He will randomly play him around 20 minutes when Sabonis is not even in foul trouble. That has happened twice in his last six games. This matchup against the Timberwolves has been one where Sabonis has thrived over past seasons. In their last meeting against Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves last season, Sabonis had a triple-double with 36 points, 16 rebounds, and 10 assists. I would keep Sabonis to tournaments-only, but the upside is there at this salary.
Top Value: Bojan Bogdanovic vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $5,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The team with the highest implied total on the slate is the Utah Jazz with 115.25. Donovan Mitchell makes for a great play, but I also want to target a value player as well. Royce O’Neale is questionable to play tonight due to injury, as he missed their last game. His loss didn’t matter much as they rolled the Pelicans by 22 points.
However, if O’Neale can’t play tonight that will open up a little extra shot attempts for Bojan Bogdanovic. He is second to Mitchell in points averaging 17.1 per game. The Trail Blazers are a completely different team on the road this season. They are 1-9 on the road with a Defensive Rating of 119.3, compared to being 9-1 at home with a Defensive Rating of 107. Bogdanovic has way better splits at home versus on the road, so this is playing right into his hands. He is the best value forward in our model among the Utah Jazz players and I like him even if O’Neale plays.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Orlando Magic – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
I still feel obligated to mention Nikola Jokic who is once again questionable to play tonight. He leads the Nuggets in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. If he plays, even in a tough matchup at the Miami Heat I still am willing to pay that price. However, he hasn’t played in four straight games. Another center who was out for awhile is Joel Embiid. He came back last game and displayed why he has such a high ceiling when he plays.
After missing nine-straight games, Embiid returned to action and played a season-high 45 minutes as the 76ers lost in double overtime by one point. The 45 minutes played was the second-highest of Embiid’s career. He finished that game with 42 points and 14 rebounds as he went for 70.5 DraftKings points!
Despite the total being only 205, this is a great matchup for Embiid. The Magic rank 29th in Defensive Rating this season as they have given up 110.9 points per game. This matchup gets even better if the Magic’s starting center Mo Bamba is unable to play.
Top Value: PJ Washington at Chicago Bulls – $5,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
PJ Washington has seen his price increase, but I still think he could be a little too cheap playing in the highest total game on the slate tonight. Washington was out for 10-straight games due to injury, but is now firmly back in the starting rotation and starting at center due to the absence of Cody Zeller who is out again tonight.
In his last two games without Zeller, Washington has ramped up his minutes from 24 to 35. During that time he has averaged 15 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game, 3.5 assists per game, and four made 3-pointers. His last game he even had two steals and two blocks against the Houston Rockets. There is still upside at this price, especially when he is PF/C eligible on both sites. I prefer Washington on FanDuel where he has an 83% Bargain Rating.
Pictured above: Dejounte Murray #5 of the San Antonio Spurs
Photo Credit: Brett Carlsen/Getty Images
