NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Sun. 4/7): Mario Hezonja is a Lock on DraftKings

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Sunday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

De’Aaron Fox left Friday’s game vs. the Jazz after just eight minutes, but he’s probable to suit up today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s a great matchup if he’s active, as the Pelicans are tied for second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency this season.

The Kings’ implied team total of 122.25 ranks second on the slate, and Fox’s Opponent Plus/Minus +2.79 is one of the top marks at the position. He leads the PG position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.

Value

The Nuggets are going to be playing shorthanded today, with Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, and Jamal Murray all getting the night off for rest. Monte Morris figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s seen a usage bump of +5.7% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.00 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him an elite target at his current salary across the industry.

Fast Break

Elfrid Payton has averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is coming off nearly 43.5 minutes in his last contest. He should benefit from a fast paced matchup vs. the Kings, and his $7,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.

It’s very tough to predict who’s going to be active on a night-to-night basis at the end of the regular season, particularly for teams like the Bucks who have already clinched the best record in the league. Giannis Anteotkounmpo rested yesterday vs. the Brooklyn Nets, and it’s very possibly that he gets another day off today vs. the Hawks.

If he does, Eric Bledsoe becomes one of the strongest plays of the day. He scored 62.5 DraftKings points with Giannis out of the lineup yesterday and has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with Giannis off the court this season. The Hawks are also one of the best matchups in fantasy given that they play at the fastest pace in the league.

Shooting Guard

Stud

James Harden has an elite matchup today vs. the Phoenix Suns, who rank 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. He also seems underpriced at just $11,800 on FanDuel. His current salary results in a Bargain Rating of 82%, and Harden has averaged 56.8 FanDuel points per game over the past month.

That said, he may not be asked to play a full workload with the playoffs on the horizon. Harden has logged 30.4 minutes or less in each of his past three games, albeit in three blowout wins. He’s worth some consideration in guaranteed prize pools – especially considering his projected ownership of 13-16% — but there are safer options.

Value

Trae Young will get the night off for the Atlanta Hawks, which makes Jaylen Adams an interesting option. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and is a candidate to move into the starting lineup. He’s currently projected for 28.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and minimum priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.53 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool).

Kent Bazemore and Justin Anderson are also worth some consideration for the Hawks. Both players own a Bargain Rating of at least 90% on FanDuel, and both players should see a bump in usage with Young and John Collins out of the lineup.

Fast Break

Bogdan Bogdanovic has seen a price decrease of -$600 over the past month on DraftKings, and he’s priced at just $4,900 for a juicy matchup vs. the Pelicans. That’s simply too cheap for Bogdanovic: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.81 with a comparable salary this season.

Damyean Dotson should be asked to play big minutes for the shorthanded Knicks, and he’s in a great spot vs. the Washington Wizards. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency, and Dotson’s $4,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

Small Forward

Stud

The Warriors are expected to be at full strength today, which mean Kevin Durant should be in the lineup. He has a great matchup vs. the Clippers, and the Warriors’ resulting implied team total of 124.0 points is the top mark on the slate.

Durant hasn’t been a particularly strong producer recently, averaging just 37.3 FanDuel points per game over the past month, but his salary has dropped to just $9,000 on FanDuel. The result is a Bargain Rating of 77%, which makes him an interesting buy low target on a slate that’s loaded with value.

Value

Will Barton has seen a decline in production over the past month, averaging just 0.74 DraftKings points per minute. That said, he’s seen a team-high usage bump of +7.8% with Murray, Jokic, and Millsap off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.00 DraftKings points per minute. He’s an elite value option at his current salary.

Fast Break

The end of the regular season was made for players like Mario Hezonja. He’s taken on a larger role over the Knicks’ past two games and has responded by scoring at least 49.3 FanDuel points in each. He will likely earn another start at the PG position today vs. the Wizards, which makes him almost impossible to fade at just $5,600 on DraftKings.

Troy Brown could be a bit overlooked on today’s slate given all the new value options to choose from, but he’s been an excellent producer over his past 10 games. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.35 on FanDuel, and he remains affordable at $4,500 on FanDuel. The result is a Bargain Rating of 98% in an excellent matchup vs. the Knicks.

Power Forward

Stud

No team has been more decimated by injuries recently than the Suns. They’re going to be missing Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Kelly Oubre, Deandre Ayton, and Tyler Johnson on today’s slate, while Richaun Holmes is currently listed as doubtful.

Josh Jackson dominated with all six players out of the lineup in their last game, scoring 60.25 DraftKings points while jacking up 29 shots. The Suns used just an eight-man rotation in that contest, so Jackson should be asked to carry another huge workload today. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage when given the opportunity. He’s too cheap at $6,700 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.

Value

Trey Lyles should be one of the chalkiest options of the day given his near-minimum salary across the industry. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models. It’s hard to fade that kind of potential at $3,100 on DraftKings or $3,500 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Marvin Bagley is underpriced at $6,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Pelicans and has averaged an elite 1.22 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s carved out a bigger role in the rotation as the season has progressed, and he could see a few additional minutes today with Kosta Koufus out of the lineup.

Ray Spalding is another minimum priced option on FanDuel, and he’s coming off a monster performance for the Suns in his last game. He tallied 53.6 FanDuel points in just 29 minutes, and he’s averaged a stout 1.16 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’ll be another elite value play if Holmes is ultimately ruled out.

Center

Stud

Mitchell Robinson has taken over as the starting center for the Knicks, and he has not disappointed. He’s averaged 1.31 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s in a fantastic spot today vs. the Wizards.

They’ve struggled on the glass in addition to on the defensive end of the court this season, giving Robinson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.72 on DraftKings. He’s also one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.

Value

Mason Plumlee has the potential to see the majority of the center minutes today for the Nuggets, which makes him an appealing option at his current salary across the industry. He’s averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel are tied for the second-most at the position.

Fast Break

DeMarcus Cousins rested in the Warriors’ last game, so he should be good to go today vs. the Clippers. It’s an outstanding matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.5 on DraftKings, and his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.