The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a two-game slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Value
Shaun Livingston started ahead of Andrew Bogut in Friday’s win. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll start today, but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are dealing with sprained ankles.
If Curry is unable to play, point guard minutes could transfer to Livingston and Andre Iguodala. Livingston wasn’t a factor in the first round, and his appeal is geared toward a punt option in tournaments based on his modest production. Livingston was limited to 17.4 minutes per game when Curry didn’t play this season. Updates on Thompson and Curry aren’t expected until after the slate locks.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving averaged 37.7 minutes per game against the Bucks during the regular season, but he was limited to 38.8% shooting. He costs slightly more than Curry on FanDuel and DraftKings, but that’s offset by the injury.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The Celtics are presently implied to score a slate-low 107.25 points, per the NBA Vegas Dashboard, whereas the Warriors are implied for a slate-high 114.75 points. Irving averaged 43.93 DraftKings points in 10 games as a road underdog against teams with winning records this season, per the Trends tool — north of today’s salary-based expectation of 40.49.
Shooting Guard
Value
Andre Iguodala averaged 27.7 minutes per game against the Rockets this season — his second-highest in multiple games against any opponent. In three games against the Rockets during last year’s postseason before missing the final four games due to a leg injury, Iguodala averaged 27.2 minutes per game and started all three contests. He’s averaged 19.71 DraftKings points per game against the Rockets since last season, and the injuries to Curry and Thompson may require increased minutes from Iguodala.
Fast Break
James Harden was primarily guarded by Thompson this season, and Harden could take advantage of Thompson or Curry on bum ankles when the Warriors switch screens.
Marcus Thompson of The Athletic reported Thompson’s ankle issue is worse than that of Curry, citing sources who described the ankle as “pretty bad.” The quick turnaround for the Warriors not only affects Thompson’s availability but his defensive assignment or his replacement — potentially shifting Iguodala onto Harden and leaving Chris Paul as a secondary beneficiary.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
Harden was seen wearing a bag of ice on his left hand during Friday’s practice. He said it was nothing, but he shot 32.3% from the field in the final three games of the first round. His salary on DraftKings sits at $10,100 — the third-lowest mark all season.
Small Forward
Value
Gordon Hayward has excelled as a primary playmaker in the second unit, and he’s the cheapest small forward on FanDuel projected for more than 22 minutes, per the NBA models. His usage was below average in the first round, but his standing in the rotation makes him a solid investment in cash games.
Fast Break
With Curry and Thompson downgraded to questionable, Kevin Durant could extend his offensive assault. Both guards may miss the game or be physically limited, which could lead to offensive deference to Durant, who had a usage rate of at least 30% and contributed at least 50.0 DraftKings points in the last four games of the first round.
Power Forward
Value
Aron Baynes may continue to start in the second round, but even if he gets the nod immediately, it may not come with traditional starter’s minutes. Baynes was limited to 19.2 minutes per game in the first round, and Marcus Morris averaged 26.2 minutes per game in round one. Morris could conceivably replace Baynes as a starter, which could help boost his playing time. Morris costs $4,400 on DraftKings, but his viability is concerning if he’s the primary defender on Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averaged a league-high 10.8 free-throw attempts per game in the first round in less than 30 minutes per game.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute against the Celtics this season — down from 1.75 overall. However, his salary dropped to $10,000 on DraftKings for the first time all year.
Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
He’s scored at least 30 actual points in every game against the Celtics while not committing more than three fouls in any contest. The Celtics allowed him to isolate while eliminating his supporting cast. If the Celtics continue to utilize the same scheme, Antetokounmpo should be a premier option.
Center
Value
Kevon Looney started the game DeMarcus Cousins and Damion Jones didn’t against the Rockets in the regular season and played 22 minutes. Looney also started the final four games against the Rockets in the 2018 Western Conference Finals after Iguodala suffered a leg injury.
Bogut has been the primary starting center following Cousins’ season-ending injury, but Looney could be revived for the center minutes Draymond Green doesn’t receive. Rostering Looney is a gamble as the starting lineups won’t be announced until well after 1 pm ET, and the injuries to Curry and Thompson add additional ambiguity.
Fast Break
Al Horford thrived against the Bucks’ drop scheme during the regular season, and if Baynes is replaced in the starting lineup, Brook Lopez may be the primary defender on Horford. Horford attempted a season-high 11 threes in the first game against the Bucks this season, and he exploded for 63.9 FanDuel points in the rematch after the All-Star break. While he’s not normally the first option on offense, Horford may have an elevated ceiling and plenty of opportunities opposite Lopez.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
