NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Sat. 4/6): Fade Giannis on FanDuel?

Saturday features a two-game slate starting at 5 p.m. ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, let’s go game-by-game instead.

Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-5) – 236.5 total

Nets (115.25 implied points)

The Nets are in an interesting spot today vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. On one hand, the Bucks rank first in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 102.6 points per 100 possessions. On the other hand, they play at one of the fastest paces in the league. Overall, it seems like the pace is the more important factor: Their implied team total of 115.25 represents a moderate increase when compared to their season average (112.0).

D’Angelo Russell has been fantastic recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.24 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.36 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $9,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. Russell scored 41.5 FanDuel points when these two teams met earlier this week despite shooting just 33% from the field, so he has the potential for a big game.

After Russell, it’s hard to pinpoint where the production is going to come from the Nets on a night-to-night basis.

Joe Harris is the safest bet for playing time, and he currently leads the team with 34.5 projected minutes in our NBA Models. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91% over the past month, but he doesn’t offer much in terms of upside. Harris is another nice value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.

Caris LeVert seems like the preferred target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s seen a slight decrease in production over the past month but is still averaging 0.88 DraftKings points per minute. He’s scored at least 32.0 DraftKings points in three of his past five games, including 38.5 in his last meeting vs. the Bucks. LeVert is also one of the better values on the team on DraftKings, where his $5,600 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 77%.

DeMarre Carroll’s playing time is a little volatile, but he did score 33.75 DraftKings points in 34.8 minutes vs. the Bucks in their last contest. The fast-paced nature of this game should suit his style of play more than the other PFs on the Nets’ roster, which makes him one of the more appealing value plays on the slate.

Spencer Dinwiddie is worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s only projected for 24.4 minutes in our NBA Models but has averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Jarrett Allen and Ed Davis should handle the minutes at center, with Allen seeing the majority of them. He’s the best pure value on the team on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 86%, and he also leads the team with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.34. Davis has averaged a superior 1.14 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $4,000 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s the preferred target there.

Bucks (121.25 implied points)

The Bucks scored 131 points vs. the Nets on Monday, despite the fact that Khris Middleton did not play in that contest. They lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 121.25 points.

Giannis Antetokounmpo may have delivered the final salvo in the MVP race in his last contest, dropping 45 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists on the Philadelphia 76ers. That said, that win guaranteed that the Bucks will finish with the best record in basketball, so it would not be surprising to see his workload slightly reduced on today’s slate. He averaged just 30.9 minutes per game in the five games prior to his explosion vs. the 76ers, including just under 30 vs. the Nets on Monday. Giannis can still do a lot of damage in 30 minutes – he’s averaged 1.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – but he seems overpriced at $13,000 on FanDuel. He’s much more reasonably priced on DraftKings, where his $11,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Brook Lopez has the best matchup vs. the Nets, who have been destroyed by opposing centers all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.53 on DraftKings, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. Lopez has also posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month, which makes him an elite target at just $5,700 on DraftKings.

Khris Middleton played just 25.2 minutes vs. the 76ers after missing a couple games due to an injury, but that didn’t stop him from posting a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s priced at a massive discount at just $6,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He leads the team with 14 Pro Trends, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.36 (per the Trends tool).

Eric Bledsoe was ejected less than three minutes into his last game, and that was the only thing that has been able to stop him recently. He had posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his prior seven games on FanDuel, although the Bucks were slightly shorthanded in some of those contests. He’s a better target today on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 86%.

The Bucks round out their rotation with Ersan Ilyasova, Sterling Brown, and Pat Connaughton. Brown and Connaughton are the best bets for minutes off the bench, and both players have been solid in terms of points per minute over the past month. Brown is a particularly appealing target on FanDuel given his Baragin Rating of 90%.

Ilyasova is only projected for 19 minutes in our NBA Models, but he’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play more than that to potentially return value.

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Philadelphia 76ers (-9) @ Chicago Bulls – 227.5 total

76ers (118.25 implied points)

The 76ers are in an appealing spot today, with the Bulls ranking just 25th in the league in defensive efficiency this season. They also have the potential to be playing shorthanded, as Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler are both questionable for today’s contest. It wouldn’t be shocking to see one or both players get the night off given the matchup.

Embiid looks like one of the best options of the day on DraftKings if he’s ultimately able to suit up. He’s priced at just $10,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and his matchup vs. the Bulls comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.35. He’s averaged a dominant 1.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he leads the team with 11 Pro Trends. His injury status, combined with the fact that this game starts three hours after lineup lock, will probably result in slightly reduced ownership, but he has massive upside. He’s worth the risk for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).

Butler doesn’t offer nearly the same upside, but he’s been extremely reliable recently. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 90% over the past month and has averaged 37.4 DraftKings points per game over that time frame.

Ben Simmons figures to be the biggest beneficiary if either Embiid or Butler is ruled out today. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.1% with Embiid off the court since the All-Star break, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.6 in 11 full games without Embiid over that time frame.

Tobias Harris is the best pure value on the team on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s seen a price decrease of -$900 over the past month, but he’s averaged a respectable 32.1 FanDuel points per game over that time. He leads the team with 13 Pro Trends.

JJ Redick has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.16 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and is coming off 41.6 FanDuel points in his last game. He’s been red-hot from the field recently, but he seems like a fade at his current salary. He’s going to need to shoot the ball extremely well in this contest to pay off his elevated price tag because he doesn’t provide much in terms of peripheral statistics.

Shake Milton could be an interesting reserve option to target on DraftKings, where he’s priced at the absolute minimum. He’s played at least 16.8 minutes in each of his past four games, and he doesn’t need to do much to provide value at his current salary.

Mike Scott should handle most of the reserve minutes in the frontcourt, but he’s averaged just 0.57 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That said, he’s still worth some consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 70%.

Bulls (109.25 implied points)

The Bulls have the lowest implied team total on the slate, but they should be a popular source of value. Zach LaVine and Otto Porter have already been ruled out, while Kris Dunn is doubtful. That doesn’t leave a lot of viable NBA talent on the Bulls’ roster, but they can still be useful in DFS.

Jakar Sampson has been dominant in his first two games with the Bulls, scoring at least 34.75 DraftKings points in each. He remains extremely affordable at $5,000 on DraftKings and should be one of the highest-owned options of the day.

Walter Lemon Jr. has been a little more up-and-down over his Bulls’ tenure but is coming off 41.75 DraftKings points in his last game. He leads the team with 12 Pro Tredns on DraftKings, and his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.

Shaq Harrison has been on the Bulls all season, which makes him a veteran on this current squad. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this year and he leads the team with a Bargain Rating of 89% on DraftKings.

Wayne Selden is currently probable to suit up with a knee injury, and he’s the best pure value on the team on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is tied with Harrison for the most on the squad.

Robin Lopez and Cristiano Felicio will split the center minutes, and they’re both in play on FanDuel. Each player has averaged at least 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and both have a Bargain Rating of 77%.

News Updates

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