The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
In case you somehow haven’t noticed, Damian Lillard has been smoldering hot lava over the past two weeks. In his six games over that span, Dame is averaging 48.8 points, 10.2 assists and 7.2 rebounds. That includes the first triple-double of Lillard’s career — and that was almost certainly the worst game of the six.
If you’re wondering if that’s translated to fantasy value, it has. Lillard has scored 174.27 fantasy points over the past six games. Wait, no, Lillard has been worth a +174.27 above his implied salary value over that stretch. That’s an average +29.0 per game and it’s absolutely absurd. Needless to say, Lillard has gone over expectations in 10 straight games.
Of course, DFS is about production today, not yesterday’s numbers. Lillard’s salary is starting to creep up but he’s still a tough fade as hot as he’s been, and he has plenty of history against Denver, though he did have one of his worst games of the season in Denver earlier this year. Lillard’s salary is rising but the ceiling is the roof right now. Fade at your own risk.
Value
The Rockets are missing both Russell Westbrook and Clint Capela tonight, so there’s mad value to be found all throughout the lineup. We’ll start here with Austin Rivers, who’s over a +8.7 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. He’s projected to play 35.5 minutes on a super bargain salary, which makes it nearly impossible for him not to provide value with an implied total of just 15 or 16 fantasy points.
Fast Break
Our models love Jamal Murray if he makes his return tonight against Portland, but be careful. Murray hasn’t played since January 15 with a sprained ankle, but this is a great matchup for him against the Blazers, and one in which he’s had a lot of success historically. He’s a high risk play with a questionable tag, but he could pay off in a high leverage spot. He’s over a +4.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Lonzo Ball has a great opportunity to pile up rebounds and assists in a game against the Bucks with a historically high total of 246 and rising. You’re definitely going to want a few players from that game in your lineup, and Lonzo is averaging a +8.97 over the last 10 days.
Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Lonzo Ball (2) of the New Orleans Pelicans.
Shooting Guard
Studs
If Westbrook and Capela are out, you probably don’t need anyone to tell you to play James Harden. Look, this isn’t even worth discussing. Harden is having an all-time historically great season and his usage will be sky high with those two out against a Charlotte team that also isn’t worth discussing. Harden has a +12.74 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings and an outrageous +17.17 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
Everyone will have Harden in their lineup tonight. If you expect a bad game, it’s definitely a chance to fade him in a high leverage spot with plenty of stars elsewhere. Good luck with that.
Value
There are certainly a lot of good shooting guard options tonight if you do pass on Harden. Khris Middleton might be the best of the bunch. He’s another option in that high-scoring Bucks-Pelicans game. New Orleans doesn’t play much defense, and Middleton can pour it on if he gets hot. At over a +5.9 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, he brings great value.
Fast Break
Perhaps you prefer Middleton’s opponent, Jrue Holiday. Holiday has a Vegas Score of 98, but his consistency and upside ratings are quite low. That means Holiday is more of a gamble, so he could win or lose your tournament, but he’s over a +5.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and an especially strong bargain at DraftKings.
DeMar DeRozan is a bit of a step down from those two names, but he continues to stay hot with the additional Spurs spacing since LaMarcus Aldridge started shooting threes. DeRozan has a whopping 16 Pro Trends at FanDuel, where his +6.43 Projected Plus/Minus comes with an 81% Bargain Rating, even in a tricky matchup.
Small Forward
Studs
There are no shortage of stud options tonight, and both Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James are available at small forward. Our models definitely prefer Antetokounmpo, and I agree. This is a smash spot for the Greek Freak in a potential historic scoring game against a porous Pelicans defense. Giannis is over a +8.0 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and looks almost certain to provide value.
LeBron is not as sure of a bet right now. He’s gone under expectations in five of six games, and you have to believe he’s very exhausted with everything the Lakers organization has dealt with over the past week. James is still over a +4.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites but he’s a riskier play and a name I’m fading with so many other juicy studs available tonight.
Value
With so many big salary options, Eric Gordon looks like an excellent bargain play to build around. Gordon should be option No. 2 in Houston tonight, and he’s only a week removed from a 50-point explosion. Gordon should see huge minutes and usage against Charlotte, and he has a huge ceiling for a player in his salary range. He’s a slam dunk as the top small forward in Projected Plus/Minus at both sites at over a +9.3 Projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
You might also consider Danuel House of the Rockets. House will start, and he’s exceeded expectations in eight of his last 10 games with an average +9.63 per outing. I prefer Gordon for his upside, and the models agree, but both are strong plays and House is an interesting pivot if you want to fade high Gordon usage in tournaments.
Brandon Ingram has been a DraftKings bargain all season and remains such, with an 86% Bargain Rating. He’ll have his hands full tonight against Antetokounmpo and Middleton, but he’s another good option in that high-scoring game.
Power Forward
Studs
I’ve almost always suggested fading Anthony Davis as an option this season, but our models love him tonight. Davis is the top power forward in Projected Plus/Minus with over a +8.1 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, and he’s a massive bargain at just $9,300 on DraftKings.
I’ve got to say, I disagree with our models on this one.
I’m not ready to invest in the Lakers yet, and Davis continues to be a guy that often struggles to provide excess value outside of his once-every-three-weeks explosion games. A game against the Spurs is a plus matchup but I don’t see an explosion tonight. Davis does look like a nice play, but with so many top dollar options tonight, I’ll likely spend elsewhere.
Value
You can’t play every Rocket tonight, but P.J. Tucker is another strong option at over a +6.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. Tucker is the de facto center with Capela out, so that means big rebounding upside in an easy matchup. Tucker does lack upside compared to the other Houston guys, so he’s probably not my top Rockets option, but he should provide value if you need it.
Fast Break
The Nuggets are missing both Paul Millsap and Michael Porter Jr. tonight, so Jerami Grant should be an excellent bargain option. Grant benefits from a +1.16 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +3.7 pace differential, and he’s exceeded expectations in seven of his last eight games with Millsap out. At over a +7.0 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, he looks like an excellent bargain option that will allow you to pay up elsewhere.
Getty Images. Pictured: Jerami Grant
I’m going to keep recommending Zion Williamson until he’s priced like the stud he is. Zion is a better play at FanDuel, where his salary remains too low. He’s gone over expectations in five of six games there and is averaging almost 32 fantasy points per game. He also played over 30 minutes for the first time ever in his last game. It’s never a bad idea to have a piece of a guy this talented in a game that could have historic scoring.
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic is yet another stud in a potential smash spot. He has put up some absurd stat lines against the Blazers, and Portland’s defense against centers has been abysmal this year. They offer a +6.25 Opponent Plus/Minus at the position along with a big pace boost, and Jokic has finally been providing fantasy value with the increased usage of late with all the Denver injuries. With over a +6.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, Jokic is a fascinating pivot from some of the more obvious stud plays tonight.
Value
The center market dries up in a hurry after Jokic. I’ll ride with Cody Zeller as a relatively safe set-it-and-forget-it option at the position. Zeller has exceeded expectations in five straight games and has a nice safe floor, especially against a Houston lineup he’ll tower over. With a +2.3 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +7.6 pace differential, Zeller looks like a strong, safe play that lets me spend my cash elsewhere.
Fast Break
If I’m not playing Zeller and can’t flex another position into center like at DraftKings, then I’m probably going with one of the two Lakers options. The Spurs are a slightly below average matchup, so it’s not a great play, but it’ll do. I slightly prefer JaVale McGee to Dwight Howard, mostly because he’s cheaper and that’s sort of the point with either of these guys. Howard is a bit more stable and will probably play a bit more against a more traditional Spurs team, but I’m not sure that’s worth the extra cost.
