The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker is priced at a bit of a discount across the industry. His salary has decreased by $800 over the past month on DraftKings, and his $7,600 price tag on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 68%. That’s a bit surprising considering he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.60 over his past 10 games, including a 62.1-point outburst two games ago.
He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Dallas Mavericks. The matchup itself is pretty average — Walker owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.25 on FanDuel — but he should benefit from the Celtics’ current injury situation. Marcus Smart has been ruled out with an eye injury, and Walker has seen a team-high usage bump of +2.8% with Smart off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.28 FanDuel points per minute in that situation, which represents a large increase compared to his regular-season average of 1.19.
Value
Lonzo Ball has seen limited minutes recently, but his playing time is trending in the right direction. He’s coming off 35.4 minutes in an overtime game in his last outing, and he’s currently projected for 30.3 minutes in our NBA Models. Ball has averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has the ability to do some damage with a few additional minutes. He stands out as a value at just $5,400 on FanDuel.
Unfortunately, Ball was a late addition to the Pelicans’ injury report, so you’ll need to monitor his status prior to lineup lock. If he’s unable to suit up, Nickeil Alexander-Walker would become a very interesting punt play at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s not afraid to let it fly when he’s on the court, resulting in an average of 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Fast Break
The status of Karl-Anthony Towns will be a key factor on today’s slate. He’s currently listed as questionable, and his absence would open up a ton of value with the rest of the Timberwolves roster. They have one of the best possible matchups vs. the Pelicans, so they would be an elite team to target if Towns is ruled out.
Jeff Teague would be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.7% with Towns off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. He also has one of the best individual matchups on the team, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76.
Terry Rozier has been a bit of a disappointment for the Hornets this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of just +0.22 on DraftKings. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,100 over that time frame, and his current $6,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s a nice buy-low target vs. the Cavaliers, who currently rank 24th in defensive efficiency.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal never seems to get his due as one of the best players in the league. He’s putting together an excellent season and is on pace to set new career-highs in points and assists per game. He’s averaged 46.13 FanDuel points per game, which would also be a new career-high.
Beal is in a nice spot today vs. the Chicago Bulls. They’ve played at an above-average pace this season, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 116.0 ranks second on the slate.
Value
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a disappointment recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.55 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, he continues to play big minutes, logging at least 33.4 in each of his past seven contests. He’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that bodes well for his outlook moving forward.
He has a fantastic matchup today vs. the Grizzlies, who rank fourth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency. SGA owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.69 on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins would vault to the top of the SG rankings if Towns is ultimately ruled out. He’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute with Towns off the court this season, and he’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute in two games with Towns out of the lineup.
The Heat will be without Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow again today, which means Tyler Herro should be looking at another expanded workload. He’s logged at least 37.9 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 31.0 DraftKings points in both contests. That makes him an appealing target at $5,100 on DraftKings, even in a difficult matchup vs. the 76ers.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF position is weaker than usual at the top today. Pascal Siakam is the highest-priced option on FanDuel, and he stands out at just $8,700. His salary results in a Bargain Rating of 75%, and he leads all players with 14 Pro Trends. Historically, players with a comparable salary and number of Pro Trends have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.81 (per the Trends tool).
Siakam also stands to benefit if Fred VanVleet is unable to suit up. FVV is currently considered unlikely to play, and Siakam has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.5 in four games without him this season.
Value
The Celtics are going to be even more shorthanded than expected today. Gordon Hayward will join Smart and Robert Williams on the sidelines, which vaults Jaylen Brown into elite territory at just $6,500 on FanDuel. Brown has seen a usage bump of +4.6% with Hayward and Smart off the court this season, resulting in an average of 37.7 FanDuel points per 36 minutes. He’s coming off more than 40 minutes in his last contest, so he has the potential to carry one of the largest workloads on the slate.
Fast Break
Draymond Green has PG/SF eligibility on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes for the Warriors recently — he’s currently projected for 30.6 in our NBA Models — but he has increased his production to 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has a nice matchup today vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.93.
Towns isn’t the only injury the Timberwolves are dealing with at the moment. Jake Layman remains out with a toe injury, and his absence has opened up a few additional minutes for Josh Okogie. He’s played at least 30.9 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s a solid value option across the industry.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis has been forced into a featured role due to the injury to Luka Doncic, and he has fared well in that role over his past two games. He’s scored at least 51.0 DraftKings points in each of those contests, which is not surprising considering his production with Doncic off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high 6.9% in that situation, resulting in an average of 1.52 DraftKings points per minute.
He has been priced up pretty aggressively recently, but his $8,300 salary on DraftKings still comes with a Bargain Rating of 71%. He has a solid matchup today vs. the Celtics, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.62.
Value
The Wizards’ big men continue to drop like flies. Rui Hachimura will join Moe Wagner and Thomas Bryant on the sidelines today, which leaves Davis Bertans as one of the sole remaining big men. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.02 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 37.2 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s an elite value at just $5,800 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Lauri Markkanen has seen a spike in playing time recently, logging at least 35.7 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s currently projected for 34.4 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a strong target at his price tag across the industry. He owns a salary of just $5,900 on DraftKings, and Markannen has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.80 with a comparable price tag and minutes projection.
Jayson Tatum is another member of the Celtics who should benefit from their current injury situation. He ranked second on the team with a usage rate of 33.4% in the Celtics’ only game without both Smart and Hawyard this season, resulting in an average of 1.05 FanDuel points per minute.
Center
Stud
Has Nikola Jokic turned a corner? He’s scored at least 50.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and has increased his fantasy production to 1.47 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so it’s definitely possible.
He’s in a tough spot today vs. the Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.07 on DraftKings, but he’s tough to ignore at just $9,100. Jokic has the upside to smash that price tag, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.50 with a comparable salary.
Value
The Pistons will be an important team to monitor heading into lineup lock. Both Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond missed their last contest, and both players are listed as questionable today.
If both players are ruled out, Christian Wood would become a very intriguing value option. He played just under 28.5 minutes with both players out of the lineup in his last game, and he’s averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Wendell Carter Jr. has a dream matchup today vs. the Wizards, who have hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing centers this season. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency and team rebound rate, giving Carter an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.21. He also stands out as a strong value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 85%.
On the other side of that matchup, Ian Mahinmi is a strong value at just $4,300 on FanDuel. The Wizards have been careful with his minutes this season, but they really have no choice but to give him an expanded role given their current injury situation. The Bulls are nearly as bad against opposing centers as the Wizards, giving Mahinmi an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.16 on FanDuel.
Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Celtics PG Kemba Walker (8)
