The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker has played well recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.72 on FanDuel over his past five games. That said, he’s still priced down after returning to the lineup following a head injury. His current $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 73% and represents a decrease of -$900 over the past month.
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Celtics guard Kemba Walker (8).
He’s in a solid spot today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 115.25 is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Lonzo Ball has been a boom-or-bust option lately. He’s scored at least 31.5 DraftKings points in two of his past four games, and he’s scored 18.5 points or fewer in the others. Still, he has been seeing plenty of minutes in games that stay competitive, and Lonzo has always been great at racking up fantasy points when on the court. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season thanks to his ability to contribute in every category across the board.
He has a nice matchup today vs. the Detroit Pistons, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.16, and his $5,200 salary makes him underpriced on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Fred VanVleet missed the second half of Sunday’s contest, and he’s currently listed as questionable for today’s matchup vs. the Bulls. Kyle Lowry would become an awesome target if he’s ultimately ruled out. Lowry has averaged 1.14 DraftKings with VanVleet off the court this season, and VanVleet has been playing upwards of 40 minutes for the Raptors.
Lowry would likely see a boost in both volume and efficiency if VanVleet is unable to suit up. He’s a particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Derrick Rose doesn’t play a ton of minutes for the Pistons, but that hasn’t stopped him from being fantasy-relevant this season. He’s averaged a stout 1.19 FanDuel points per minute, and he leads the Pistons with a 30.8% usage rate. He has one of the best possible matchups today vs. the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.40 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has failed to return value in each of his past two games, but there are reasons to expect some regression moving forward. His last game was plagued by poor shooting: He shot just 8-27 from the field and 3-17 from 3-point range. If he shoots at his normal rates in that contest, he would have been just fine.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13).
In the other contest, he posted a usage rate of just 16.3%, which is absurdly low for Harden. His previous season-low was 27.8%, and that was just his third game below 30% all season. I think it’s safe to write that off as an outlier.
Unfortunately, today’s contest vs. the Kings doesn’t look like a great bounce back spot. They rank merely 19th in defensive efficiency, but they’ve played at the slowest pace in basketball this season. Houston ranks first in pace, so this is the most extreme pace-down spot possible. The Rockets are also favored by 12.5 points at home, so there are some blowout concerns as well.
Value
Bruce Brown is another viable value option for the Pistons today vs. the Pelicans. He’s averaged a respectable 0.83 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 23.7 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be enough playing time for him to be relevant at just $3,800.
Fast Break
Devin Booker has displayed a nice ceiling recently, scoring 49.3 and 68.1 FanDuel points in his past two games. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, who rank fifth in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency. Phoenix is currently implied for 118.75 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate, and Booker’s $8,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Jrue Holiday stands out as one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him an appealing target at that price.
Small Forward
Stud
The Bucks are absolutely rolling at the moment. They’ve won 14 straight games, and they’ve won each of their past four games by at least 24 points. That includes a win vs. the Clippers, who were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title. They currently rank second in the league in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency, and their Net Rating of +12.9 ranks first by a considerable margin.
While that’s great for the Bucks, it has not been good for Giannis Antetokounmpo from a fantasy perspective. All those blowout wins have resulted in inconsistent fantasy performances, despite the fact that he’s averaged 1.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. If the Bucks ever play in another close game, Giannis is going to smash at his current salary.
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34), Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
Will today’s game vs. the Magic be that game? It seems unlikely. The Bucks are favored by 12.5 points at home, so Milwaukee could very easily cruise to another win. Even if this game does stay competitive, it’s not exactly a great spot for Giannis. Orlando ranks 29th in pace and ninth in defensive efficiency, which is not a great combination for DFS.
Value
Gordon Hayward is expected to rejoin the Celtics rotation tonight, and it’s nearly impossible to avoid him at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’ll almost undoubtedly be on some sort of minute restriction, but he’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season. He doesn’t need to play a ton to return value at his current salary.
Fast Break
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been limited with a hamstring injury recently, but he’s been awesome when he’s been on the court. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a team-high usage bump of +2.7% with De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III off the court this season. His price has dropped to just $4,800 on DraftKings for today’s contest vs. the Rockets, which makes him a strong buy-low target.
Brandon Ingram stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. His production has fallen off a bit over the past month, but he’s still averaging 1.21 DraftKings points per minute.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis leads the PF position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s averaged a stout 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 34.3 minutes in each of his past three games. Historically, Sabonis has excellent with a comparable salary and minute projection, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.84 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
He takes the court today in a nice spot vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. They’re a tough defensive team, but they have significantly better individual defenders on the wing than on the interior. They Clippers also rank seventh in pace, so this is a pretty large pace-up spot for the Pacers.
Value
Daniel Thies has seen one of the most volatile workloads in basketball recently: He’s played as many as 26.6 minutes and as few as 6.9 over his past four games.
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Celtics forward Daniel Theis (27).
That said, he’s projected for 23.1 minutes in our NBA Models for today’s matchup vs. the Cavaliers, which makes him an appealing target. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his matchup vs. the Cavs results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.07.
Fast Break
Blake Griffin has struggled to get going following an extended injury absence to start the season, but he is coming off a season-high 43.1 FanDuel points in his last outing. Maybe that will represent a turning point for Griffin, who averaged 41.5 FanDuel points per game last season. His price has decreased by -$1,400 over the past month on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his elite matchup vs. the Pelicans.
Serge Ibaka is still priced down across the industry, and he has one of the best possible matchups vs. the Bulls. They’ve hemorrhaged points to opposing big men this season, giving Ibaka an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play a ton to potentially return value in this matchup.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has cooled off after a torrid start to the season, but he’s still averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Meanwhile, his price has dropped by -$700 over that time frame, and his current $9,300 price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 93%. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he has a nice matchup vs. the Phoenix Suns. They rank 19th in defensive efficiency and have been crushed on the glass this season.
Value
It doesn’t seem like you want to spend down too far at the center position today. The top four centers in terms of projected Plus/Minus are all priced at $7,400 or greater on DraftKings.
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33).
That said, Myles Turner could be worth some consideration on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 89%. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42 vs. the Clippers, which gives him one of the better matchups at the position as well.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert is one of the few centers who stands out as a better value today on FanDuel. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is one of the largest increases since the beginning of the season. He’s also in a great spot today vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.11.
Photo credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Pacers PF/C Domantas Sabonis (11)
