The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is expected to return the Rockets’ lineup tonight after getting the night off in their last game. He’s been a solid fantasy asset recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.11 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Westbrook is in a strong spot today vs. the Spurs. They’ve been dreadful to start the season, ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 121 points ranks first on the slate. Westbrook has historically thrived in games with a comparable implied team total, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.84 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard Russell Westbrook (0).
He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%.
Value
It’s going to be really tough to avoid Jalen Brunson on FanDuel at just $3,700. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he should move into the starting lineup to replace the injured Luka Doncic. He played 34.3 minutes and scored 34.4 FanDuel points in his last game, and he’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Brunson has historically crushed when projected for at least 20 minutes with a comparable salary, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.39.
Fast Break
The Heat look like a strong team to target today. They have an appealing matchup vs. the Grizzlies, who rank tied for fourth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency, and they’ll be without Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow, and Dion Waiters for the second straight game.
Kenrick Nunn is coming off 37.7 minutes in his last game, and he’s averaged 0.80 FanDuel points per minute in six games without Dragic and Winslow this season.
The Pistons are another team with injury concerns today. Blake Griffin is questionable after sitting out the second-half of their last game with a knee injury, while Andre Drummond is questionable due to his avocado-related eye injury.
If both players are unable to suit up, Derrick Rose would be asked to carry a massive workload. He leads the team with a usage rate of 35.2% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.53 FanDuel points per minute.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is coming off a “disappointing” 59.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, but there’s no reason not to expect some regression from him today. He unsurprisingly dominated the basketball with Westbrook out of the lineup, posting a usage rate of 41.8%, but he shot just 14-33 from the field and 4-13 from 3-point range. Any drop in usage with Westbrook back in the lineup could easily be overcome by some better efficiency.
He’s a much stronger option today on FanDuel, where his $12,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Value
Donte DiVincenzo stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s coming off one of his best games of the season, scoring 35.0 FanDuel points vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. He’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he should continue to see a few additional minutes with Eric Bledsoe out of the lineup.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler could very easily be considered a stud on today’s slate. He benefits from the same injury situation as Nunn, and he’s carried an even larger workload with Dragic and Winslow out of the lineup.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22).
He’s averaged 40.0 minutes in six games without both players out of the lineup, and he’s increased his usage rate, assist rate, and rebound rate in that situation. Overall, he’s averaged 46.75 DraftKings points in those contests.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been priced down to just $6,200 on DraftKings, which makes him an appealing buy-low option vs. the Chicago Bulls. It’s a solid matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.67, and SGA continues to play big minutes for the Thunder. He’s currently projected for 35.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has increased his production to 1.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, yet his salary has actually dropped by -$200 over that time frame. Of course, there’s a reason for that: Giannis has been playing even fewer minutes than usual recently.
He’s dealing with a combination of an injury and the fact that the Bucks have been blowing teams out of the water, and he’s played 27.9 minutes or fewer in five of his past six games. With that in mind, he’s really tough to trust as a big favorite vs. the Mavericks.
Pascal Siakam is an appealing pivot off Giannis if you’re paying up at SF on FanDuel. He’s coming off a monster performance in his last game, posting a usage rate of 37.5% and scoring 65.5 FanDuel points. Fred VanVleet is unlikely to suit up today, which means Siakam could be looking at another expanded workload.
Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam (43).
He leads the position with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is a massive number. Historically, players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.80.
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr. is coming off 41.8 minutes and 35.5 FanDuel points in his last game, and he could be asked to carry a similar workload today with Doncic out of the lineup. He’s posted a usage rate of 25.2% with Doncic off the court this season, which ranks third on the team, and he’s averaged 0.78 FanDuel points per minute in that situation. He remains affordable at $5,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Fast Break
Derrick Jones Jr. is another potential source of value for the Heat. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +12.62 over his past three games on FanDuel, yet his salary has barely budged over that time frame. He’s played at least 27.9 minutes in each of those contests, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04 vs. the Grizzlies.
Danilo Gallinari is coming off one of his worst games of the season, scoring just 16.0 DraftKings points over 29.6 minutes. He shot just 1-13 from the field in that contest, so he’s a prime buy-low target today vs. the Bulls. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season, so there’s no reason not to expect some progression.
Power Forward
Stud
Bam Adebayo is a PF on FanDuel and a C on DraftKings, but he deserves consideration regardless of where you have to play him today. He’s been an absolute monster recently, posting two triple-doubles in his past three games, and no one has seen a bigger boost in fantasy value in games without Dragic and Winslow this season.
Nicole Sweet-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat forward Bam Adebayo (13).
He’s averaged 48.3 FanDuel points per game in games without both players, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +10.3 over six contests.
Value
Dorian Finney-Smith isn’t a particularly appealing option on most nights — he’s averaged just 0.66 DraftKings points per minute this season — but he should carry a large workload with Doncic out of the lineup. He’s coming off 37 minutes in his last game, and he’s currently projected for 32.2 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s dirt-cheap at just $3,900 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.88.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Mavs, Kristaps Porzingis is going to a key player on this slate. He’s a strong bet to lead the team in usage — he’s posted an average usage rate of 33.6% with Doncic off the court the season — but it remains to be seen if he can take advantage of that opportunity.
He’s shot just 39.7% from the field and 32.6% from 3-point range this season, and his effective FG% drops from 46.8% to 44.2% with Doncic off the court. That’s the worst mark on the entire team. He should be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, so the decision to play him or fade him is going to be a deciding factor.
If Griffin is able to suit up today, he’s an interesting option at just $5,900 on DraftKings. This has been largely a lost season for Griffin so far, but he’s still averaging 0.99 DraftKings points per minute. He wouldn’t need to play much to potentially return value at his current salary.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has the potential to be one of the top overall plays on the slate. For starters, he’s in an elite spot vs. the Washington Wizards.
The Wizards have been a dream matchup for centers this season, ranking second in pace and dead-last in defensive efficiency and team rebound rate. Drummond has crushed the Wizards since the beginning of 2017, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.11 on DraftKings. That includes 58.5 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Wizards this season.
Pictured: Pistons C Andre Drummond (0), Photo Credit: Raj Mehta-USA Today Sports
Drummond would also get a boost in value if Griffin is ultimately ruled out. He’s seen a usage bump of +1.5% in 12 games without Griffin this season, resulting in an average of 48.43 DraftKings points per game.
He’s priced at a slight discount at $9,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Value
Marc Gasol has been a monster recently. He’s scored at least 35.7 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, including at least 41.2 FanDuel points in each of his past three. Overall, he’s increased his production to 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
He stands out as one of the better pure values at just $6,000 on FanDuel, and he’s in a nice spot vs. the Cavaliers. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, giving Gasol an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.94.
Fast Break
Steven Adams is another center who has increased his production recently. He’s averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.91 over his past 10 games. He has one of the best possible matchups vs. the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.16 on FanDuel.
Hassan Whiteside stands out on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s absolutely crushed over the past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.55, and he’s played at least 31.9 minutes in four of his past five contests. No one at the position has averaged more fantasy points per minute over the past month, so it’s not surprising that he’s taken advantage of the extra playing time.
Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Mavericks PF Kristaps Porzingis (6)
