The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving could not have posted more different results through his first two matchups against the Bucks. He exploded for 51.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 but scored just 24.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. He struggled mightily from the field in that contest, shooting just 4-of-18 from the field. He shot 48.7% this season, so he seems due for some positive regression tonight. He’s an elite value at $8,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Terry Rozier is the best pure value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%. He hasn’t played a huge role for the Celtics during the postseason, but he’s currently projected for 18.2 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so that should be enough playing time to potentially return value.
Fast Break
Like Irving, Damian Lillard is another stud PG looking to bounce back from a disappointing Game 2. He leads the position in Pro Trends (12), DraftKings points per minute over the past month (1.21), and projected minutes on tonight’s slate (41.5).
The biggest difference for the Bucks in Game 2 vs. the Celtics was the production of their complimentary players.
Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Bledsoe
Eric Bledsoe took on a much larger role, posting a usage rate of 28.5%, and he responded with 35.75 DraftKings points in 26.4 minutes. The Celtics have made shutting down Giannis Antetokounmpo Priority A, B and C, so they’re going to need Bledsoe to continue to produce at a similar level. He’s an excellent target at $6,100 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Paying up at SG on this slate essentially boils down to a choice between Khris Middleton and C.J. McCollum.
Middleton was better in his last game, scoring 36.9 FanDuel points and 32.6 minutes, but he seems like a prime regression candidate tonight. He shot 55.6% from the field and 70% from 3-point range in that contest, and he seems unlikely to duplicate those numbers in Game 3.
That makes McCollum the preferred choice at a slightly cheaper salary. He should play more minutes than Middleton — he’s coming off 41.2 in his last game — and he’s shown the ability to put up more than 30 fantasy points against the Nuggets without shooting the ball particularly well from the field.
Of course, pairing both options together on FanDuel is a perfectly viable strategy as well: No one else at the position can match their upside.
Value
The Nuggets have a deep rotation, but Gary Harris has reestablished himself as one of their key contributors in the postseason. He’s coming off 40.5 minutes in their last game, and he’s currently projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models. It’s tough to find that kind of playing time production at just $4,900 on FanDuel, and players with comparable minute projections and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.17 (per our Trends tool).
Fast Break
The Celtics’ lead the slate with an implied team total of 110.5 points, which increases the appeal for Jaylen Brown. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in his first two postseason contests against the Bucks, and his $5,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Pat Connaughton has become an important part of the Bucks rotation following the injury to Malcolm Brogdon, culminating in 29.5 minutes in their last game. He’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him a nice value at $3,700. Just don’t ask him to throw out the first pitch for your DFS team:
Pat Connaughton's first pitch as called by Brewers legend Bob Uecker pic.twitter.com/E9woRduU1H
— CJ Fogler (@cjzero) May 2, 2019
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo stands out in his own tier. He’s been the best producer in fantasy on a per-minute basis this season, and he has the potential to see a few additional minutes if tonight’s game against the Celtics stays competitive. He scored 55.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes in Game 2, so he has insane upside if he sees closer to 35 on tonight.
There’s really no need to overthink this one, especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%. Just lock him in and move on.
Value
Nikola Mirotic is one of the easiest plays on the slate. He moved into the starting lineup in his last game and responded with 34.8 FanDuel points in just under 25 minutes. He should see a few additional minutes tonight, and he should also be able to improve on his 30% shooting from the field and 20% shooting from 3-point range. He’s entirely too cheap across the industry and will likely be the highest-owned player on the slate.
Fast Break
Rodney Hood is a really interesting punt play on FanDuel, where he’s priced at the absolute minimum. He’s coming off 27.2 minutes in his last contest and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of the first two games of this series. He’s one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Gordon Hayward has continued to improve as the season has progressed, which makes sense considering the gruesome leg injury he suffered last season. He struggled in his last contest but did post a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his 13 previous games on DraftKings. He’s a nice buy-low target at $5,000.
Power Forward
Stud
The PF position is easily the weakest on this slate, particularly on FanDuel given the lack of multi-positional eligibility.
Jayson Tatum is the most expensive option at the position, but he’s struggled a bit during the postseason. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his first six games, but it’s hard to fault him for his last two performances. He played only 24.5 and 29.7 minutes in those contests, and he should return to his usual workload tonight.
Tatum has averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage when given the opportunity to play more than 30 minutes.
Value
Marcus Morris is way too cheap at $4,600 on DraftKings. He’s actually been better than Tatum on a per-minute basis over the past month, and Morris is only projected for two fewer minutes in our NBA Models. He’s up there with Mirotic in terms of best pure values on the slate, and pairing both together gives you a ton of flexibility with the rest of your lineup.
Fast Break
If you’re looking for a pure punt play on DraftKings, consider Ersan Ilyasova. He’s priced at $3,100 and is projected for a solid 22 minutes. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each game this postseason.
Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paul Millsap
Paul Millsap has demolished the Blazers in the first two games of their series, scoring 37.2 and 31.7 FanDuel points. He’s seen a sizable price hike tonight, but his $6,100 salary still comes with a position-high Bargain Rating of 52%.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is one of the most enigmatic players in the league. He has the ability to dominate on a nightly basis, but there are some games where it seems like he’d rather be somewhere else.
Luckily, that hasn’t extended into the postseason. He’s been absolutely phenomenal from a fantasy perspective, scoring at least 53.5 DraftKings points in six of his first nine postseason games.
He’s coming off a down performance, but he could have very easily recorded a triple-double if his teammates would’ve played up to their usual level. He had 20 potential assists according to NBA.com — that’s the most of any player in their last playoff game — but he finished with just seven actual assists. Expect him to continue to play at an elite level.
Value
Enes Kanter is the biggest X-factor for the Trail Blazers this postseason. They need him following the injury to Jusuf Nurkic, but his defense has occasionally forced him off the court in the past.
Luckily for fantasy owners, the Blazers really don’t have any other options against the Nuggets. He should continue to see at least 30 minutes, and we can reap the benefits. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute this season, so it’s not surprising he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each postseason contest where he’s played at least 30 minutes.
Fast Break
Al Horford is in contention for the top center spot on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He has a huge responsibility on defense against the Bucks — he’s served as the primary defender on Giannis more than any other player during this series — which means he should see plenty of court time. Horford can take advantage of Brook Lopez on the offensive end of the court as evidenced by his 49.7 FanDuel points in Game 1 of this series.
Zach Collins is another potentially interesting punt on DraftKings. He’s priced at the absolute minimum, so he doesn’t need to do much to be a value. He’s coming off 18.5 DraftKings points in 17 minutes in his last game, and fantasy owners would gladly take that kind of production at the minimum.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Milwaukee Bucks SF/PF Nikola Mirotic (41)
Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA Today Sports
