The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a massive 13-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is coming off a historic performance in his last game. He become the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to record at least 20 points, 20 rebounds and 20 assists in a single game, resulting in 87.0 DraftKings points.
To say he was motivated in that contest was an understatement:
On Tuesday night, Russell Westbrook dedicated his once-in-a-lifetime on-court performance to his once-in-a-lifetime off-court inspiration, Nipsey Hussle. pic.twitter.com/d2MkWVmtYg
— Sports by Brooks (@SportsbyBrooks) April 3, 2019
Can he keep it going against the Pistons?
It seems unlikely. The Pistons have played at one of the slower paces in the league this season, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 111.25 represents a slight decrease when compared to their regular season average (114.0). He’s worth some tournament consideration on DraftKings, where his $11,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%, but there are better options for cash games.
Value
Finding value is not going to be a problem on this slate. We have 26 teams to choose from, and a handful of them will be shorthanded.
The Grizzlies are one of those squads. They’ll be without Mike Conley and Joakim Noah against the Mavericks in addition to the host of injuries they were already dealing with. Jevon Carter should see a healthy amount of playing in Conley’s absence, and he’s priced just $200 above the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Carter has averaged 0.79 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Michael Carter-Williams has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on FanDuel and has one of the best matchups of the day against the Hawks. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league this season, giving MCW an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.42. He’s averaged a stout 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has played at least 23.8 minutes in each of his past two games.
Jamal Murray is one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, resulting in an average of 32.3 fantasy points per game.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has one of the best matchups on the slate against the Wizards, who rank eighth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. The Spurs’ implied team total of 116.5 also represents a sizable increase when compared to their season average (111.5). DeRozan has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, resulting in an average of 40.4 DraftKings points per game over that time frame. He could also see a few additional minutes with Marco Belinelli out of the lineup.
Value
The Suns have been absolutely decimated by injuries recently. Devin Booker hurt his ankle in his last game and has been shut down for the rest of the season. He’ll join Deandre Ayton, T.J. Warren, Kelly Oubre, and Tyler Johnson on the sidelines against the Pelicans.
That doesn’t leave a whole lot of options for Suns’ head coach Igor Kokoskov.
Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jamal Crawford
Jamal Crawford is one of their more intriguing remaining players. He’s played at least 29.7 minutes in each of his past three games, he’s posted a usage rate of 29.5% with all five injured Suns off the court since the All-Star break. He’s not as effective as a scorer as he was in the past, but he’s still averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame. Crawford is hard to pass up at just $3,600 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Fast Break
Dion Waiters has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.93 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and will suit up against the Timberwolves despite dealing with a knee injury. He’s currently projected for 36.4 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Delon Wright has been priced up aggressively across the industry over the past month, but he has the potential to serve as the Grizzlies’ offensive focal point on this slate. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with Conley, Noah, Jonas Valanciunas and Avery Bradley off the court since the All-Star break, and he has the potential to play more than 35 minutes against the Mavericks.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George has not been the same fantasy asset recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.51 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, and his salary has decreased by $1,000 over the past month. His current $10,000 price tag on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
He leads the SF position with 14 Pro Trends on this slate, and just one player is projected for more than his 38.4 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s a strong option to pay up for given the sheer volume of value options available.
Value
The Hawks are another team that is battling injuries at the moment. Both Kent Bazemore and Kevin Huerter have been ruled out against the Magic, which result in a bunch of minutes for Taurean Prince. Prince has averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $4,600 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Fast Break
Troy Brown is the best pure value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97% and has seen at least 35.8 minutes in each of his past two games. He should remain heavily involved in the rotation with Trevor Ariza and Jabari Parker out of the lineup.
The Bridges Brothers — no relation — are both viable options for their respective teams. Mikal Bridges should see heavy minutes for the shorthanded Suns — he’s currently projected for 36 in our NBA Models — which makes him a strong option at just $5,100 on DraftKings. Players with comparable salaries and playing time projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.17 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Miles Bridges is the better option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%. He isn’t projected for quite as many minutes, but he’s been much more effective with his playing time when given an opportunity. He’s averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has scored at least 26.5 FanDuel points in seven of his past nine games.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge benefits from the same elite matchup as DeRozan. That said, the Wizards have been abysmal on the glass in addition to on the defensive end this season, which makes the matchup even juicier for the Spurs’ big man. The result is an average Plus/Minus of +2.71 on DraftKings, which is the top mark at the PF position on this slate.
Credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LaMarcus Aldridge
Aldridge is also coming off just 30.5 DraftKings points in 24.5 minutes in his last contest, causing his salary to drop to just $8,200 and giving him a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Value
Frank Kaminsky is coming off 28 minutes in his last contest, and he responded with 35.7 FanDuel points against the Pelicans. He should see another large workload with Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams both out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Kaminsky is hard to pass up at $4,200 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
The Suns value continues at the PF position with a pair of viable options in Josh Jackson and Richaun Holmes.
Holmes is the more expensive option of the two, and he’s put up some serious fantasy numbers when given the chance recently. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and scored 35.25 DraftKings points in 38 minutes in his last contest. Holmes is only $400 more expensive than Jackson on DraftKings, and his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s the preferred option there.
Jackson owns a Bargain Rating of 88% on FanDuel, where he checks in at $1,900 less than Holmes. He hasn’t been as effective on a per-minute basis but has still averaged a strong 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s also projected for more minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him a slightly safer floor.
Ivan Rabb racked up 32 DraftKings points in 31.3 minutes in his last game, and the Grizzlies have no choice but to lean on him again. He’s a steal at $5,300 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Center
Stud
Blake Griffin is currently questionable to suit up for the Pistons, and his absence would make Andre Drummond an elite play. Drummond has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with Griffin off the court this season and has averaged 53.13 DraftKings points per game in six games with Griffin out of the lineup.
Drummond is also in an excellent spot against the Thunder, who have played at a breakneck pace over the second half of the season and have struggled defensively over that span. Drummond is particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Mo Wagner has started each of the past three games for the Lakers and has played at least 24.7 minutes in each of those contests. He hasn’t exactly been a fantasy stud in those contests, averaging just 20.8 FanDuel points per game, but he doesn’t need to do more than that to be a value at just $3,800.
Fast Break
Jahlil Okafor has been a strong fantasy asset when given the chance to play this season, averaging 1.05 FanDuel points per minute. He’s currently projected for 22.5 minutes in an elite matchup against the Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.29. He’s also projected for just 2-4% ownership on FanDuel, which increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Nikola Jokic has seen a price decrease of $1,300 over the past month on DraftKings, which makes him a really interesting buy low option against the Trail Blazers. He’s priced at just $9,300, and Jokic has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.48 with a comparable salary this season. He always has the potential to put up a dud, but he has also the potential to be the highest scoring player on the slate.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
