The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s schedule features a 10-game slate, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
James Harden continues to carry an unreal workload for the Brooklyn Nets. Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup in their last game, but that didn’t stop Harden from racking up 78.75 DraftKings points over nearly 40.4 minutes. Overall, he’s averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 39.1 minutes in each of his past four games.
He takes the floor in an elite spot against the Rockets. The Nets are currently implied for 122.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate by six points. This is also a revenge game for Harden, who had an unceremonious end to his stellar Rockets’ tenure.
He’s simply too cheap at $10,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92 percent.
Value
Donovan Mitchell will miss the game against the Memphis Grizzlies due to personal reasons, which opens up a significant amount of usage. Jordan Clarkson should be one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.0% with Mitchell off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.16 DraftKings per minute. He’s currently projected for 29.0 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him an excellent value across the industry.
Fast Break
Mike Conley is another potential option for the Utah Jazz. He’s played two games without Mitchell this season, and he’s increased his assist rate by +10.1% in those contests. Overall, he’s averaged more than 38.6 DraftKings points per game.
Kyle Lowry stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%. Lowry has historically owned a comparable salary on just nine previous occasions, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.37 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Fred VanVleet is playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment for the Toronto Raptors. He’s logged at least 37.5 minutes in five of his past seven games, and the Raptors’ will have four reserve players sidelined once again. In other words, expect VanVleet to be busy once again against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
His nine Pro Trends are tied for the third-most at the shooting-guard position on FanDuel, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75 percen.t
Value
The Detroit Pistons are another team that will be shorthanded. Dennis Smith Jr. and Rodney McGruder have both been ruled out, while Wayne Ellington is currently listed as doubtful. That makes Hamidou Diallo an interesting option. He’s coming off 43.0 DraftKings points over 27.3 minutes in his last outing, and he’s averaged a strong 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s simply too cheap at $4,600 given his Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
Tyrese Haliburton has been one of the most impressive rookies this season, and he’s coming off 39.8 FanDuel points in his last outing. He’s currently projected for 34.1 minutes for the matchup against the Sa Antonio Spurs, and he’s averaged a solid 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s underpriced at $5,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 80 percent.
The tank is on in Oklahoma City. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort are both out with injuries, and Al Horford is not expected to play for the Thunder again this season. That opens up a ton of playing time and usage for the rest of the roster. Svi Mykhailiuk should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s coming off 27.3 minutes in his last outing — his highest mark as a member of the Thunder — and he’s averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Mykhailiuk has the chance to provide excellent value at just $3,700.
Small Forward
Stud
The Spurs own arguably the best matchup against the Kings. They’ve been the worst team in the league this season in terms of defensive efficiency, and they’ve also played at the 10th-fastest pace. The Spurs’ implied team total of 116.25 ranks third on the slate and represents a sizable increase from their season average of 109.5 points per game.
DeMar DeRozan has taken a bit of a backseat this season to some of the Spurs’ younger players like Dejounte Murray and Derrick White — who are also strong plays — but DeRozan has still averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should be able to pay off his current salary in such an elite matchup.
Value
The Jazz should offer plenty of value on the slate, but Royce O’Neale has a chance to be the best contributor on a points-per-dollar basis. He’s increased his production to 0.76 DraftKings points per minute with Mitchell off the court this season, and he should see a few additional minutes with Mitchell out of the lineup as well. O’Neale leads the team with an average of 35.8 minutes in two games without Mitchell this season, and he’s averaged 24.63 DraftKings points in those contests.
Fast Break
Justin Holiday is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel at just $3,800. He’s logged plenty of minutes for the Pacers recently, and he could be looking at another expanded workload. Jeremy Lamb and Doug McDermott are both questionable, which would leave them without much depth on the wing. Holiday is currently projected for 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.62 on the numbers.
Patrick Williams is even cheaper than Holiday at just $3,600, and he’s played a ton of minutes for the Bulls since the trade deadline. He’s logged at least 30.6 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s coming off 31.2 FanDuel points in his last outing. That makes him another viable punt play.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been in-and-out of the Bucks’ lineup recently, and he hasn’t been very productive when he’s suited up. He’s scored 46.0 DraftKings points or fewer in three straight games, which is caused his salary to drop to just $10,500.
That makes Antetokounmpo an elite buy-low option. He’s been priced between $10,000 and $11,000 91 times since the start of the 2018 season, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.27 in those contests. His ownership should also be a bit lower than usual following three-straight poor games, which makes him an excellent GPP pivot off Harden.
Value
The Timberwolves are playing for the future at this point, and they’ve decided to give Jaden McDaniels some extended run. He’s played at least 33.0 minutes in three consecutive games, culminating with 38.1 minutes in his last contest. He responded with 39.25 DraftKings points, so he’s capable of doing some damage with all that playing time.
Fast Break
OG Anunoby is too cheap at $6,300 on DraftKings. He has crushed since returning from a long-term absence for the Raptors, scoring at least 32.75 DraftKings points in each of his past six games. He also played at least 38 minutes in two of his past three games, which gives him one of the safest floors in fantasy.
The Celtics could be without Jaylen Brown for the second game in a row. He’s currently listed as questionable, and Jayson Tatum led the team with 34 points and 25 shot attempts in their last contest. He racked up 58.75 DraftKings points over 40.1 minutes, so he would be another strong target if Brown is unavailable.
Center
Stud
Bam Adebayo has been hit-or-miss recently for the Heat, but the hits have been massive. He’s scored at least 54.0 DraftKings points in three of his past five games, including in his last matchup against the Knicks. The Knicks are one of the toughest matchups in fantasy, so if Adebayo can succeed against them, he can definitely succeed against the Indiana Pacers.
He should also benefit from Miami’s current injury situation. Victor Oladipo is still not ready to make his team debut, while Kendrick Nunn is questionable after sitting out on Monday.
Overall, Adebayo is one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Jakob Poeltl is coming off back-to-back games with at least 38.75 DraftKings, and he’ll have the chance for another big performance against the Kings. They’ve been dreadful against opposing centers this season, giving Poeltl an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.98. That’s the second-highest mark at the position.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond will be available to make his Lakers’ debut, and he’s a tantalizing option at just $5,200 on FanDuel. He will likely be limited in his first game action in months, but Drummond has averaged a stout 1.48 FanDuel points per minute this season. The Lakers are also still playing without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, so there are plenty of shots available at the moment in Los Angeles.
No center on the slate has averaged more fantasy points per minute over the past month than Robert Williams. He’s racked up an average of 1.50 FanDuel points per minute over that time frame, and he should continue to see a healthy amount of playing time for the Celtics. Daniel Theis was traded to the Bulls, and Tristan Thompson remains out of the lineup due to health and safety protocols.
