The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
James Harden and the revenge game! This narrative can definitely be overhyped at times, but Harden’s divorce from the Rockets was particularly contentious. He basically threw the whole team under the bus on his way out the door, so expect him to come out motivated in his return.
Regardless of the matchup, Harden has been a fantastic fantasy asset recently. He’s coming off 80.0 DraftKings points in his last game, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.99 over his past 10 contests. He should continue to carry an increased workload with Kevin Durant out of the lineup, and he could see even more playing time than usual with Jeff Green and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot doubtful. He’s currently projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Dennis Schroder has the chance to provide stud-like production at a value price tag Wednesday vs. the Kings. LeBron James will miss his first game of the season for rest purposes, while Anthony Davis remains out of the lineup. Marc Gasol, Kyle Kuzma, and Alex Caruso could also be sidelined, which would leave Schroder as one of the Lakers’ only offensive options. Schroder has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute with James and Davis off the court this season, so he has excellent upside in an elite matchup against the Kings.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox probably doesn’t get the attention that he deserves. He’s been playing excellent basketball recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.03 on FanDuel over his past 10 games, and he leads the position with 38.2 projected minutes. He also leads all point guards with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87 percent.
Kyrie Irving is another excellent value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five consecutive games. The Nets’ implied team total of 119.75 ranks second on the slate, so he’s definitely playable against the Rockets.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Lakers aren’t the only team that will be playing shorthanded. The Raptors are going to be without five players due to health and safety protocols: Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Patrick McCaw, and Malachi Flynn.
Norman Powell and Kyle Lowry should be asked to handle most of the offensive responsibilities. Powell has increased his usage rate by +10.0% with VanVleet, Anunoby, and Siakam off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Sticking with the Raptors, Terence Davis should be asked to take on a larger workload given their current injury situation. He’s averaged just under 1.00 DraftKings points per minute with VanVleet, Anunoby, and Siakam off the court this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to potentially return value at his current salary.
Fast Break
Luguentz Dort isn’t the sexiest option, especially with all the other possible sources of value on the slate. That said, he’s simply too cheap at $3,900 on FanDuel given the number of minutes he’s playing. He’s currently projected for 31.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.97 (per the Trends tool).
The Rockets are another team that could provide some value on Wednesday. Eric Gordon and Danuel House are both questionable, and their absences would open up a bunch of playing time for the rest of the roster. Victor Oladipo is already playing a significant role – he’s coming off 41.3 minutes in his last game – but he would benefit from a usage perspective if Gordon is ultimately ruled out.
Small Forward
Stud
Brandon Ingram leads the SF position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. Ingram has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.97 with a comparable salary this season, so this could be a nice buy-low spot for him. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 121.75 ranks first on the slate.
Value
There are going to be value options at virtually every position for the Lakers , but Talen Horton-Tucker stands out as one of my favorites. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.1% with James and Davis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a candidate to move into the starting lineup against the Kings, and he’s going to smash his price tag if he plays around 30 minutes.
Fast Break
Kelly Oubre got off to an abysmal start this season, but he’s been playing extremely well recently. The big difference was his ability to make some 3-pointers during February. He shot 43.0% from downtown over the past month, which pushed his fantasy scoring to 1.04 DraftKings per minute. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last game – the Warriors were absolutely crushed by the Lakers – but he’s scored at least 38.0 DraftKings points in seven of his past 10 games. That makes him very reasonable at $7,000 in a strong matchup vs. the Blazers.
Justin Holiday could be forced into a sizable role for the Pacers tonight. Doug McDermott and Jeremy Lamb are both questionable, and Indiana wouldn’t have many options on the wing if both players are ruled out. Holiday is already playing more than 30 minutes per game, so any additional playing time would make him an excellent option at $4,500 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson’s price tag has risen considerably of late, but I still don’t think he’s priced high enough. He’s taken on a new role for the Pelicans recently, operating more as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. That allows him to utilize two of his biggest strengths: getting to the rim and distributing. He’s racked up at least five assists in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 46.5 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight games.
Zion leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%.
Value
Markieff Morris is next on our tour of the Lakers. He’s coming off a strong performance yesterday, finishing with 25.5 DraftKings over 33.7 minutes, and he finished with 30.0 DraftKings two games ago against the Warriors. He obviously has the potential to provide big value at his current salary against the Kings.
Fast Break
Chris Boucher has PF eligibility on FanDuel, but you’re going to want to consider him on DraftKings as well. He’s been dominant on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.26 FanDuel points per minute, and he has the potential to see a ton of playing time for the shorthanded Raptors.
P.J. Washington has been a rollercoaster from a fantasy perspective recently. He’s scored 43.0 FanDuel points or more in two of his past four games, but he’s scored 10.2 FanDuel points or less in the other two. That’s one of the widest ranges of outcomes that I can remember. That obviously makes him a bit tough to trust for cash games, but he’s very appealing for tournaments on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Center
Stud
There’s so much value on today’s slate that you’re going to need to pay up at multiple positions. Pairing two of the stud point guards will probably be the preferred strategy – particularly pairing Harden and Doncic – but Karl-Anthony Towns also has some appeal vs. the Hornets. He’s still not playing a ton of minutes for the Timberwolves, but he’s averaged a stout 1.43 DKFP per minute this season. The Hornets could also be without starting center Cody Zeller for the fourth straight game, which would make them weaker than usual on the interior.
Towns stands out as a nice value on FanDuel, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75 percent.
Value
It might be boring to read about so many different options for the Lakers, but they’re a team you simply cannot fade tonight. They have too much usage available, and the Kings rank dead last in defensive efficiency.
We saved arguably the strongest option for last. Montrezl Harrell has seen a team-high usage bump of +7.4% with both Davis and James off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings per minute. He played just 18.5 minutes yesterday vs. the Suns, but I would expect him to play much more against the Kings. The Lakers are going to need to generate as much offense as possible, and Harrell is one of their best remaining sources of points.
Fast Break
If Green and Luwawu-Cabarrot are ruled out as expected, Nicolas Claxton has some sneaky upside at $3,300 on DraftKings. He played 17.3 minutes with both players out of the lineup on Monday and responded with 30.25 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has the potential to provide a ton of value at his current salary.
Enes Kanter remains significantly underpriced on FanDuel. His $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87 percent, and he’s scored at least 30.0 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. His matchup against the Warriors is also a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.54.
