The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
James Harden is currently listed as questionable, but he carries immense upside if he’s able to suit up vs. the Blazers. Kevin Durant remains out with an injury, while Kyrie Irving is away from the team for personal reasons. Since joining the Nets, Harden has increased his usage rate by +7.1% and his assist rate by +14.4% with both players off the court. He’s also averaged 58.63 DraftKings points in four games without both players.
The Blazers are also an excellent matchup. They rank just 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Nets’ implied team total of 114.5 ranks second on the slate.
Harden’s status is obviously going to be a crucial factor on Tuesday, so make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates. Also, make sure to check out our Conditional Projections if you want to plan ahead just in case Harden gets ruled out.
Value
Sticking with the Nets, Tyler Johnson stands out as a nice potential source of value on DraftKings. His $3,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s currently projected for 27.6 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.81 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Alex Caruso is the preferred source of value on FanDuel. The Lakers are another team with a ton of usage up for grabs – LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both out of the lineup – so Caruso should see a few additional minutes and shot attempts on Tuesday. His $3,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%, and his matchup vs. the Pelicans results in a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.35.
Ben Simmons is coming off a disappointing performance in his last outing, but there were plenty of encouraging signs for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He played nearly 37.5 minutes in that contest, and he also increased his usage rate to 31.7%. He struggled with his shooting efficiency and turnovers, which ultimately kept his fantasy value in check, but he still provides plenty of upside vs. the Warriors.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Dennis Schroder has SG eligibility on DraftKings, and he deserves heavy consideration today vs. the Pelicans. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and that undersells his upside on Tuesday’s slate. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.3% with both LeBron and AD off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. Schroder has also increased his assist rate by a team-high +9.7% in that situation, which gives him the potential to lead the team in scoring and assists vs. the Pelicans. That’s an appealing combination at just $6,600.
Value
Bruce Brown is one of the best values plays across the industry on Tuesday. He’s been excellent on a per-minute basis over the past month, and he should see plenty of minutes with Irving and Durant out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 31.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and Brown has averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.46 on DraftKings with a comparable salary and minute projection this season.
Fast Break
Jordan Poole has been excellent for the Warriors recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.66 over his past 10 games. He’s coming off 38.1 minutes and 42.0 DraftKings points in his last game, and he should be looking at another expanded workload sans Curry on Tuesday. The 76ers aren’t a great matchup, but he’s simply too cheap on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
There are tons of value options available on Tuesday, but there aren’t a ton of studs. That increases the value of someone like Bradley Beal. He’s not in a particularly good spot vs. the Knicks, but he still leads all shooting guards in terms of median and ceiling projection (excluding Harden on FanDuel).
Small Forward
Stud
This is the moment Kyle Kuzma has been dreaming of. He’s transformed his game into being more of a role player this season, but he is a scorer at heart. He should have a chance to flex his scoring muscles with James and Davis out of the lineup, particularly in an elite matchup vs. the Pelicans.
Kuzma leads the team with 70 total minutes in two games without LeBron and Davis this season, and he’s averaged 37.15 FanDuel points in those contests. He’s a strong value at just $6,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%.
Value
Joe Harris has been red-hot since the All-Star break. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all six games on FanDuel, and he’s finished with at least 25.3 FanDuel points in each of his past three games. He should continue to play around 36 minutes, and he should also see a few additional shot attempts with Irving out of the lineup. He’s another strong value on FanDuel, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Fast Break
R.J. Barrett could be a bit of an afterthought on today’s slate. The Knicks are getting healthier at point guard – which should hurt Barrett in the long run – but that might not matter Tuesday vs. the Wizards. This is the biggest pace up spot possible, with the Knicks ranking last in pace and the Wizards ranking first, and the Knicks’ implied team total of 113.5 is nearly 10 points higher than their season average. Barrett also leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Talen Horton-Tucker has actually seen the largest usage bump on the Lakers with LeBron and AD off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.1%, resulting in an average of 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. He’s one of the few options at the position who stands out as a better value on DraftKings, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Power Forward
Stud
Like Barrett, Julius Randle is someone who should see a decrease in value as the Knicks get healthier. His assist numbers were way up with Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, and Elfrid Payton out of the lineup, and it’s possible that all three players will be back today. Rose and Quickley will almost assuredly be in the lineup.
Still, the matchup vs. the Wizards is too appealing to pass up. In addition to playing fast and struggling defensively, the Wizards also rank just 25th in team rebound rate. Randle should be able to make up any reduction in assists with a few additional points and rebounds on Tuesday. He leads the position in Pro Trends on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Value
Tony Bradley continues to start at center in place of Joel Embiid, but he’s coming off a poor game in his last outing. That said, his matchup vs. the Knicks was about as poor as it gets from a fantasy perspective. He’s in a much better spot today vs. the Warriors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.52. He’s a nice bounce-back option.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo has PF eligibility on FanDuel, which always increases his appeal. Center is typically loaded with elite options, but PF is a much thinner position. He’s also priced more affordably at $8,000, and Adebayo has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.59 with a comparable salary this season.
Jae Crowder is not a particularly sexy DFS option, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He remains dirt-cheap at $3,900 on FanDuel, and he’s projected for 28.0 minutes in our NBA Models. That kind of playing time makes him a safe investment.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic was known as a high-ceiling, low-floor type of player prior to this season, but he has completely flipped that narrative on its head this year. He’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on DraftKings, and he’s still displayed the type of upside that he’s become known for. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.39 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 1.74 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Jokic isn’t in a particularly strong spot vs. the Magic, but it’s hard to argue against paying up for him on Tuesday. There aren’t a ton of studs to consider – particularly if Harden doesn’t suit up – and Jokic has been arguably the best player in fantasy this season.
Value
Nicolas Claxton has earned more playing time for the Nets recently, and that shouldn’t change with Irving out of the lineup. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 24.4 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s very affordable at $3,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell is another elite value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%, and he should be one of the Lakers’ offensive focal points on Tuesday. He increased his usage rate by +6.0% with Davis and LeBron off the court, resulting in an average of 1.30 DraftKings points per minute. He’s arguably the top center option on the slate.
Dwight Howard has been extremely reliable since Embiid went down with an injury. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight straight games on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 32.4 minutes in his last contest. He’s simply too cheap at $5,400 on FanDuel, particularly in a strong matchup vs. the Warriors.
Pictured above: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers
Photo credit: Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images
