The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is coming off a subpar game in his last outing, but he’s still played some of his best basketball of the year recently. He’s increased his production to 1.53 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among today’s point guards. He’s ultimately finished with at least 50.25 DraftKings points in nine of his past 11 games, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.78 over his past 10 contests.
The 76ers aren’t a great matchup – they rank second in defensive efficiency – but they will be without Ben Simmons for another game. That makes them a bit more vulnerable than usual.
Value
LaMarcus Aldridge is not going to be a part of the Spurs’ rotation moving forward, which is a decision that should benefit both parties. Aldridge will get a chance to negotiate a trade or buy-out to play for a contender, while the Spurs can funnel some additional offensive responsibilities to their younger players.
Derrick White figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s still not carrying a full workload after missing most of the early season with an injury, but he played 27.1 minutes in his last outing. That should be more than enough playing time for him to return value vs. the Magic given his average of 0.94 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Spurs, Dejounte Murray is an elite target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends, and he’s increased his production to 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
On FanDuel, Malcolm Brogdon stands out as the best pure value at the position. His Bargain Rating of 88% is tied for the top mark at point guard, as are his 11 Pro Trends. He’s been priced down to just $6,600, and Brogdon has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.79 with a comparable salary as a member of the Pacers (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Jazz are in an interesting spot tonight vs. the Rockets. They have massive offensive upside if this game stays competitive – they lead the slate with an implied team total of 122.75 points – but the Rockets are going to be extremely shorthanded. The Jazz are favored by a whopping 17 points, so their starters could end up playing reduced minutes.
Still, it’s hard to ignore Donovan Mitchell on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.24.
Value
Kevin Porter Jr. had a disastrous exit from Cleveland, but he has a chance to revive his career in Houston. His Rockets’ tenure got off to a phenomenal start yesterday, with Porter Jr. racking up 42.25 DraftKings points over 29.4 minutes.
He should carry another large workload for the Rockets Friday vs. the Jazz. Victor Oladipo is expected to rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, while John Wall is listed as questionable after sitting out yesterday. Eric Gordon has also already been ruled out, while Danuel House and Christian Wood are expected to remain out of the lineup. That doesn’t leave a ton of available bodies in Houston.
Make sure to monitor all the Rockets’ news using the Labs Insiders tool.
Fast Break
Collin Sexton is coming off back-to-back games with at least 57.0 DraftKings points, and he gets arguably the best matchup in fantasy on Friday. The Pelicans have been an absolute disaster defensively of late, allowing a ridiculous 125.4 points per 100 possessions over their past 14 games. They allowed 135 points last night to the Timberwolves, who rank just 27th in offensive efficiency this season.
Dwayne Bacon is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, but he’s currently projected for 32.6 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.27. He may not have a ton of ceiling – he’s averaged just 0.69 FanDuel points per minute this season – but he has a very safe floor.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler has done absolutely everything for the Heat recently. He’s scored at least 51.25 DraftKings points in each of his past four games, and he’s coming off a 62.5 DraftKings point-performance yesterday vs. the Magic. He finished just two rebounds shy of a triple-double, and his ability to contribute in every category across the board has resulted in an average of 1.50 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
He’s in a great spot tonight vs. the Bulls. They’ve played at the fifth-fastest pace this season, and they’re also below-average in terms of defensive efficiency. This is also technically a revenge game if you’re into that kind of thing.
Value
Matisse Thybulle hasn’t gotten a ton of run for the 76ers this season, but he has a chance to play a bit more with Simmons out of the lineup. He took advantage of his extra playing time in his last game, finishing with 30.5 DraftKings points over 28.5 minutes vs. the Bulls. He likely won’t shoot 100% from the field again – he was 5-5 from the field and 3-3 from 3-point range yesterday – but he’s capable of racking up fantasy points on the defensive end.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he’s simply too cheap at $7,700. It results in a Bargain Rating of 84%, and Ingram has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.19 with a comparable salary this season.
Keldon Johnson is another member of the Spurs who should benefit from Aldridge’s departure. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his playing time should continue to increase following his stint in the health and safety protocols. He’s a nice buy-low target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson is coming off a disappointing performance yesterday, but his recent game log is still overwhelmingly positive. He’s scored at least 46.5 DraftKings in eight of his past 10 games, and he’s averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
He’s in an elite bounce-back spot tonight vs. the Cavaliers. They’ve struggled on the defensive end this season, ranking just 22nd in defensive efficiency, and they rank 20th in terms of points per game allowed in the paint. The Pelicans are currently implied for 117.75 points, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Value
There are tons of excellent value options on today’s slate, but Kenyon Martin Jr. might be the best of the bunch. He’s priced at the absolute minimum across the industry, and the Rockets have no choice but to lean on him heavily vs. the Jazz. P.J. Tucker is no longer with the team, and Martin played 32.3 minutes for the Rockets in their last game. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some serious damage with that much playing time.
Fast Break
I’m a sucker for Domantas Sabonis, and he stands out as a nice value today at $8,900 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%, and Sabonis has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.28 with a comparable salary this season. His ownership should also be reasonable, which makes him a nice buy-low option for tournaments.
Tobias Harris led the way for the 76ers yesterday, finishing with 32.6 FanDuel points over just 25.2 minutes in a comfortable win vs. the Bulls. Joel Embiid will be back in the lineup tonight – which definitely hurts Harris’ value – but he should still benefit from Simmons being out. He’s a nice value at $7,800 on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Speaking of Embiid, it’s hard to argue against him on today’s slate. We’re going to need some studs to balance out all these value options, and Embiid is arguably the best of the bunch. He’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Wizards, who have been a fantasy gold mine for opposing big men this season.
They rank first in pace, 27th in defensive efficiency, and 24th in team rebound rate, and they have no one who can match Embiid’s combination of size and athleticism. He finished with 66.5 DraftKings points in his last matchup vs. the Wizards, and he has the upside for a similar performance tonight.
Value
Kelly Olynyk is going to be a viable fantasy option for as long as Bam Adebayo is out of the lineup. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 34.7 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s ultimately finished with at least 38.75 DraftKings points in both of those contests, so he’s very reasonably priced Friday vs. the Bulls.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic is an interesting pivot from Embiid in GPPs. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is not a number that you see every day. Historically, centers with a comparable number of Pro Trends have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.72, so the thought of getting him at low ownership is tantalizing.
Pictured above: Kenyon Martin Jr. #6 of the Houston Rockets
Photo credit: Cato Cataldo/NBAE via Getty Images
