Wednesday features Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers, which is slated for a 9 p.m. ET tip.
If you are unfamiliar with single-game/showdown slates, check out my primers for DraftKings and FanDuel before constructing rosters.
The Suns had a chance to wrap this series up at home in Game 5, but they ultimately came up short. Now, they’ll have to close things out in Los Angeles in order to avoid a win-or-go-home Game 7.
The Clippers have played their best with their backs against the wall all postseason. They’ve already overcome two straight 0-2 series deficits, which has historically been incredibly difficult. Teams with a 2-0 series lead win a seven-game series at nearly a 93% clip, so the fact that the Clippers have already fought back from that deficit twice is impressive.
Teams have historically recovered from a 3-1 series deficit at an even lower rate, so this team is starting to feel like a horror movie villain: Every time you think you’ve killed them, they somehow manage to survive.
The Suns are still significant favorites to win the series — they’re approximately -500 to advance to the finals — and they’re one-point favorites on the road in Game 6.
From an injury perspective, the Clippers will once again be without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers continue to leave the door open for him to return at some point in the future, but this will mark his eighth consecutive missed game. Ivica Zubac is also questionable after failing to suit up in Game 5.
Studs
Paul George has gotten more than his fair share of hate for some of his past playoff performances. That said, he delivered an all-time showing when his team needed him most. He racked up 41 points in just under 41 minutes in Game 5, and he shot a hyper-efficient 15-20 from the field. He also chipped in 13 rebounds, six assists and three steals, resulting in a whopping 72.25 DraftKings points. Needless to say, there weren’t a lot of Playoff P jokes being made on Twitter on Monday.
George is likely due for some shooting regression in Game 6, but he still stands out as the clear top target on today’s slate. He leads all players in floor, median, and ceiling projections in our NBA Models, and he’s been remarkably consistent from a fantasy perspective. He’s racked up at least 54.75 DraftKings points in six of seven postseason games without Leonard.
Devin Booker has struggled since Game 1 of this series. He’s shot just 33.3% from the field and 28.6% from 3-point range over his past four games, which has killed his fantasy production. Booker isn’t someone who racks up peripheral stats, so he needs to score the ball to return value.
He did have a slightly better performance in Game 5. He was still under 50% from the field, but he did manage to hit four of six 3-pointers. Still, he only finished with 45.0 DraftKings points. His ceiling isn’t significantly higher than that with the team at full strength, which makes him a bit risky as the second-most expensive player on the slate.
I’d rather save a bit with Chris Paul if I’m targeting a stud guard for the Suns. He’s put up similar shot totals to Booker since returning to the lineup in Game 3, and he’s much more involved as a distributor. Overall, he’s averaged more fantasy points per minute than Booker over the past month, which makes him the superior option given the cheaper price tag.
Midrange
Deandre Ayton came crashing back to reality in Game 5, which is always a concern for players like him. He relies on production in two categories to return value — points and rebounds — and he needs someone else to set him up offensively. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it does make him more viable than someone who can create their own shot.
Ayton did see a slight price decrease following Game 5, but he’s still priced up for the series overall. He continues to look like a fade at his current salary.
I would rather save some money with Reggie Jackson if I’m targeting someone in this price range. Jackson has taken over as the Clippers’ No. 2 option offensively with Leonard out of the lineup, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games. He finished with 37.25 DraftKings points in Game 5, and his shot volume was actually down a bit in that contest. He launched just 14 shots after attempting an average of 17.7 in his previous six games, so he has the potential for a better performance in Game 6.
After Jackson, there’s a huge drop-off to the next tier. Mikal Bridges is the next most expensive option on DraftKings, and it’s hard to get excited about him. He’s a low-usage player, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of the first five games in this series. He also managed just 30.25 DraftKings points in the game where he did return value, and he’s provided very little upside in general during the postseason.
If you are going to play Bridges, you’re better off doing it on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Zubac is the big X-factor on the slate. If he’s active, it’s going to be a negative for most of the Clippers’ value options. Make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insiders tool.
Jae Crowder is an interesting buy-low target. He was priced at $7,000 for Game 5, but he’s down to just $5,400 for tonight’s contest. Of course, it’s pretty easy to see why. He’s provided zero fantasy value of late, scoring 17.5 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past four games. Still, he’s projected for his usual 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and Crowder has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has the upside to pay off this price tag if his jump shot is falling.
Terance Mann rounds out this price range, and he’s coming off an interesting performance in Game 5. He moved into the starting lineup after coming off the bench in Game 4, yet his playing time actually decreased. He saw just 26.1 minutes in that contest after logging at least 32 in his previous two games, and he finished with just 11.5 DraftKings points. Head coach Ty Lue is not afraid to tinker with his rotation, so it’s possible that the reduced minutes are not just a one-game anomaly. He has the potential to return value, but he also carries plenty of risk.
Values & Punts
- DeMarcus Cousins ($4,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): I’m not going to be rostering Cousins on Wednesday. His ownership should be up following a 24.0 DraftKings points per minute in Game 5, but his production was extremely fluky. He played just 11.3 minutes, but he posted a 53.0% usage rate and shot the ball efficiently. The odds of both of those happening again are slim, and he’s been priced up aggressively for Game 6. I’ll let the rest of the field chase his points if they want to.
- Patrick Beverley ($4,600 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel): Beverley is a much more appealing option. His playing time is on the rise in this series, and he’s logged at least 30.9 minutes in back-to-back games. Beverley isn’t great on a per-minute basis, but he’s good enough to pay off his current salary.
- Cameron Payne ($4,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Payne was the hero for the Suns when Chris Paul was sidelined, particularly in Game 2. However, he’s been relegated to a reserve role, and he’s currently projected for just 15 minutes. He’s too expensive at the moment.
- Marcus Morris ($4,000 on DraftKings, $11,000 on FanDuel): Morris is one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, and he would be a very tough fade if Zubac is out. He played 38.8 minutes sans Zubac in Game 5 and responded with 31.25 DraftKings points. Morris is a streaky scorer, so he has the potential to destroy this price tag if he gets hot.
- Cameron Johnson ($3,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Johnson has quietly siphoned a few minutes from some of the other Suns’ wings recently, and he posted 25.0 DraftKings points over 23 minutes in Game 5. Overall, he’s logged at least 23 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 17.25 DraftKings points in all of them.
- Nicolas Batum ($3,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Batum is another player who seems too cheap given his playing time upside. He logged nearly 30 minutes in Game 5, and while he’s not as productive as Morris on a per-minute basis, that’s still a ton of potential minutes for someone who costs just $3,000.
- Luke Kennard ($1,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Kennard has struggled badly in his past two games, which has caused his price tag to drop to just $1,800. That said, he’s seeing around 20 minutes per game, and Kennard did shoot 44.6% from 3-point range this season. He only needs a few open triples to pay off his current salary.
