The NBA playoffs card Wednesday features a four-game slate, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
We have more choices than usual for a playoff slate, but the 76ers stand out as one of the top teams to target. Their implied team total of 117.75 ranks second on the slate, and they will also be without star center Joel Embiid. He’s been ruled out with a torn meniscus, which is going to open up more usage for the rest of the roster.
Even with Embiid in the lineup, Ben Simmons has been doing some serious damage in this series. He dominated in the first two games, racking up at least 50.25 DraftKings points in both contests, but limited minutes has kept his production in check recently. Overall, he’s averaged a stout 1.41 DraftKings points per minute in this series. He could exceed that number with Embiid out of the lineup, making him an elite option across the industry.
Value
The Clippers have opted to play small as their series vs. the Mavericks has progressed, and Reggie Jackson has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s played at least 30.1 minutes in each of the past three games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in all three contests. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to pay off his $4,700 salary with that much playing time again.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic has had two fantastic games against the Clippers, but he’s coming off a disastrous performance in his last outing. They limited him to just 34.2 FanDuel points over 35.6 minutes, which caused his salary to drop by -$800 on FanDuel. That makes him a strong buy-low target in Game 5. He’s currently priced at just $10,700, and Doncic has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.01 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
Derrick Rose has one of the best individual matchups at the position. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.89 on FanDuel ranks first among today’s PGs, and his 72% Bargain Rating ranks third. He’s carried a massive workload for the Knicks during the postseason, and he’s currently projected for 39.0 minutes in our NBA Models.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Jazz have won all three games since Donovan Mitchell returned to the lineup, and he stands out as an elite fantasy option on Wednesday. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 40.5% in his past two games, which represents a massive increase from his mark during the regular season (33.5%). His playing time is also trending upwards. He was limited to just 25.7 minutes in his first game back following an ankle injury, but he played 34.7 minutes in his last game. He should be able to pay off his current salary with around 34 minutes in Game 5, and he has the potential for a massive performance if he sees another bump in minutes.
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr. came out of the gates red-hot in this series vs. the Clippers, but he cooled down substantially in Game 4. He shot just 1-8 from the field, including 0-4 from 3-point range. He also played just 25.1 minutes in the blowout loss after logging at least 38.2 minutes in his prior two games.
That makes him an interesting buy-low option, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 80 percent. He should see some positive regression in both shooting and playing time.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, Paul George could also be looking at some positive regression. He’s coming off just 32.3 FanDuel points in Game 4 after scoring at least 45.4 FanDuel points in his previous two contests. He’s currently projected for 40.4 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.19 FanDuel points per minute this season.
George Hill is worth some consideration if you’re looking for a punt play at guard on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he’s increased his usage rate by +2.1% with Embiid off the court this season. He racked up 19.25 DraftKings points in his last outing, and that would be enough to return value at his current price tag.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard’s salary has started to move in the right direction, but he’s still one of the best values of the day on DraftKings. His $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Leonard has scored at least 55.0 DraftKings points in each of his first four playoff games. That includes Game 4, where he played just 35.4 minutes in a blowout win. He should return to his usual 40+ minutes if Game 5 is more competitive, making him arguably the best play on the entire slate.
Value
The Hawks are another team coming off a blowout win in their last game, so you can expect the majority of their key players to see more action in Game 5. That includes De’Andre Hunter. He logged more than 35 minutes in Game 3, and he’s averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a nice value at $4,600.
Fast Break
Nicolas Batum led the Clippers in minutes in Game 4, and he finished with 28.25 DraftKings points. He entered the starting lineup in place of Ivica Zubac for that contest, and he will likely draw another start. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and his $4,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Rui Hachimura should see all the minutes he can handle in Game 5. Davis Bertans will miss the next 4 to 6 weeks with an injury, and Hachimura played more than 41.5 minutes with Bertans largely unavailable in Game 4. He finished with a series-high 43.6 FanDuel points in that outing for the Wizards, and his $5,200 salary is reasonable for someone with that much playing time upside.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris is one of the strongest plays with Embiid out of the lineup. He’s been the biggest beneficiary with Embiid off the court this season, increasing his usage rate by a team-high +4.6%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, and he’s averaged 38.67 DraftKings points in 19 full games with Embiid out of the lineup. That production was over an average of just 31.4 minutes per game, and he has the potential to play closer to 40 minutes.
Value
Marcus Morris is a very similar option to Batum. Both players figure to see significant playing time, especially with Serge Ibaka not expected to suit up. Batum was the better value on DraftKings, but Morris stands out on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 72 percent.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis has been a major disappointment for the Mavericks so far this postseason, which has caused his price to dip to just $6,600 on FanDuel for Game 5. His current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.35 with a comparable price tag. That makes him a very strong buy-low option.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, and he remains affordable at $5,700 on FanDuel. He’s not expected to see a ton of playing time, but he should be able to make up for it through efficiency. He’s averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he racked up 32.7 FanDuel points over just 26 minutes in Game 4.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert owns the best matchup at the center position. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.32 vs. the Grizzlies, and Utah’s implied team total of 118.25 ranks first on the slate. Gobert has averaged a stout 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in the two games where he’s played more than 32.4 minutes. Gobert is also one of the better pure values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88 percent.
Value
If history is any indication, Dwight Howard will probably not get the start in place of Embiid. That said, Howard should still be a big beneficiary. He’s averaged 26.26 DraftKings points in 21 games without Embiid this season, which would be more than enough to pay off his current salary. He’s a steal at just $4,300 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas has had a rough go against the Jazz, which is not surprising since he’s had to square off with Gobert. He’s one of the best defenders in the league, and he is expected to take home his third Defensive Player of the Year award this season. That said, Valanciunas leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his salary has dipped to just $7,700. It will be much easier for him to return value at a reduced price tag.
Daniel Gafford has been an awesome source of value recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.41 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he racked up 29.0 DraftKings points in his last contest. Overall, he’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to return value at just $4,700.
