Wednesday features a two-game NBA playoff slate, starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young is coming off a masterful performance in Game 4. He was able to lead the Hawks to a win, tying the series at 2-2 and delivering 61.0 DraftKings points for his fantasy owners. The scary thing is that he didn’t even shoot well in that contest, making just 8 of 26 shots from the field, including 3 for 11 from 3-point range. He made up for it by handing out 18 assists, but he could’ve had an even bigger performance with some better shooting numbers.
Unfortunately, he’s seen a large price increase for Game 5. He’s all the way up to $10,400 on FanDuel, and he’s priced at $9,900 on DraftKings. He’s still capable of paying off that price tag, but there are players at other positions that stand out as better stud targets.
Value
We got an absolute bomb dropped on us this morning by ESPN’s Brian Windhorst when he tweeted out that Kawhi Leonard was expected to miss Game 5 against the Jazz with a knee injury suffered in Game 4 of the series.
Since then, Leonard has officially been ruled out for Game 5, which leaves the Clippers without their best player in a crucial contest against the Jazz. That means it’s going to be all hands on deck for the rest of the roster.
Reggie Jackson is someone who should be asked to pick up the slack offensively. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.3% with Kawhi and Serge Ibaka off the court during the postseason, resulting in an average of 0.95 DraftKings points per minute. Jackson is very affordable across the industry, but he’s a steal at just $4,800 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Jordan Clarkson is another nice value option on FanDuel, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87 percent. He should continue to dominate the usage for the Jazz off the bench, and he leads the position with eight Pro Trends.
Ben Simmons has struggled a bit vs. the Hawks, but he finished with 45.0 DraftKings points in Game 4. He stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Shooting Guard
Stud
With Leonard out of the lineup, Paul George is going to be placed under the microscope in Game 5. People love to criticize George during the postseason, and he’s going to be expected to do it all for the Clippers. We just saw Kevin Durant carry the Nets to a victory Tuesday, and while George isn’t close to the same caliber of player, that’s the kind of performance that stars are expected to deliver in the postseason.
From a fantasy perspective, George should carry close to 100% ownership. He’s seen a massive +8.5% usage bump with Leonard off the court during the playoffs, resulting in an average of 1.69 DraftKings points per minute. George leads all players with 41.9 projected minutes in our NBA Models, so he should have no problems returning value.
Value
Sticking with the Clippers, Terance Mann could be a nice source of value. He’s a candidate to replace Leonard in the starting lineup, and he’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 23.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.54 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell could fly a bit under-the-radar with George garnering so much attention, but he’s also an elite option. He’s blossomed into a full-fledged superstar during the postseason, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games. He’s also posted a usage rate of at least 40.1% in six of those contests, which gives him massive upside. Pairing him and George together is my preferred lineup construction.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is another strong option at the position, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75 percent. He’s struggled recently, but he played a whopping 42.3 minutes in his last outing. He should be able to pay off his price tag with that much playing time.
Small Forward
Stud
Small forward is easily the weakest position on the slate. Nicolas Batum is the most expensive option at the position on FanDuel, but he costs just $6,200. That said, he should be a reliable target with Leonard out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 36.0 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s coming off 33.4 FanDuel points in his last outing.
Batum is an absolute steal on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Value
Luke Kennard is another potential value option for the Clippers on Wednesday. He’s been solid when given the opportunity to play recently, which is not surprising given his average of 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s projected for 25.4 minutes in Game 5, which makes him very intriguing at just $3,100 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Bojan Bogdanovic is the strongest option at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at $5,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 65%, and he’s coming off 34.1 FanDuel points in Game 4. He’s been an excellent option overall recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games.
There is no shortage of value options at small forward on DraftKings. You can add Furkan Korkmaz to the list at just $3,800. He’s played at least 25.1 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 18.5 DraftKings points in both contests. He should continue to see a few additional minutes with Danny Green sidelined, and he should command lower ownership than some of the other value options at the position.
Power Forward
Stud
If you’re looking to pay up at power forward, Tobias Harris is your guy. He’s a bit overpriced on DraftKings, but he owns a Bargain Rating of 65% on FanDuel. That’s the top mark at the position.
Harris is coming off a subpar performance in his last game, but he could be asked to do a bit more offensively. Joel Embiid was clearly hobbled in their last game, and Harris is their next-best option as a scorer. If Embiid is ineffective again in Game 5, Harris will likely be asked to pick up the slack. Harris has been a reliable option for most of the postseason, posting a Consistency Rating of 100% over the past month, and he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends.
Value
Royce O’Neale is an important part of the Jazz’s rotation. He’s developed into their defensive stopper, and he’s often tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best wing player. He’s spent the majority of time in this series matched up against either Leonard or George, and he’s done a solid job in those matchups.
O’Neale is a better performer in real life than in fantasy, but he’s still posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.01 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s projected for 36.8 minutes in our NBA Models, so he could pay off his salary through sheer volume.
Fast Break
John Collins put together a strong performance for the Hawks on Monday. He finished with 34.9 FanDuel points thanks to 14 points and 12 rebounds, and he still has room for improvement. He shot just 6 of 15 from the field, so he has the potential for an even better performance in Game 5. He’s a strong value at just $6,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92 percent.
Danilo Gallinari is another potential option for the Hawks. He’s seen a slight bump in playing time with De’Andre Hunter out for the series, and Gallinari has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Center
Stud
What to do with Embiid is one of the biggest questions on today’s slate. His knee injury is obviously a huge deal, but it didn’t appear to hinder him in the first three games of the series. That said, he came crashing back to reality in Game 4, particularly in the second half. He went 0 for 12 from the field, finishing with a series-low 49.25 DraftKings points.
Embiid is listed as questionable once again in Game 5, but expect him to be back in the lineup. I prefer George and Mitchell as my studs on Wednesday, but Embiid arguably has the highest ceiling on the slate. He could also carry reduced ownership after his poor performance in his last outing, which makes him an interesting high-risk, high-reward option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Ivica Zubac has basically been played off the court during the postseason, but the Clippers may have no choice but to use him in Game 5 without Leonard. He’s currently projected for 20.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t pay off his $3,500 salary on DraftKings with that much playing time. Zubac has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him a nice potential value.
Fast Break
If you’re not looking to pay up for Embiid, Rudy Gobert is an excellent pivot. He leads the position with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. Gobert has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.41 with a comparable salary, so he stands out as arguably the top option at the position.
Clint Capela has struggled recently, which has caused his salary to drop significantly across the industry. He’s seen a price decrease of more than -$1,000 over his past 10 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which makes him a potential buy-low candidate.
