The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook sat out the Rockets’ last game, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup tonight. He’s been a phenomenal fantasy asset recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.11 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s in a great spot vs. the Trail Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.29. The Rockets’ implied team total of 120.5 is also the top mark on the slate.
Don Juan Moore/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Westbrook (0) of the Houston Rockets.
Westbrook would become arguably the top play on the slate if James Harden is unable to suit up. Harden has missed each of the past two games, and he’s currently listed as questionable with a thigh injury. Westbrook has unsurprisingly increased his usage rate by a team-high +7.8% with Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.66 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Reggie Jackson is still playing limited minutes, but he’s been really effective when on the court this season. He’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $4,500 salary. He also has a great matchup vs. the Nets, who have been abysmal vs. opposing point guards.
Fast Break
Elfrid Payton has seized the starting point guard position for the Knicks, which is very good for fantasy owners. He racks up fantasy points when he’s on the court — he’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute this season — and he’s played at least 29.5 minutes in five of his past six games. He’ posted a positive Plus/Minus in all six of those contests, and he’s in a nice spot today vs. the Grizzlies. He’s underpriced at $6,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%.
The Spurs are an interesting team to target today. They have a tough matchup vs. the Jazz, but they’re going to be without LaMarcus Aldridge. Dejounte Murray struggled without Aldridge in his last game, but he should have some added upside in that situation. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.17 FanDuel points per minute with Aldridge off the court this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Harden is obviously in play if he’s able to suit up, particularly at his current price tag across the industry. He’s been priced down a bit after a recent cold stretch followed by his injury. He’s particularly appealing at $10,800 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 73%. Harden has dominated with a comparable price tag this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.26 (per the Trends tool).
If Harden is unavailable, DeMar DeRozan is a fine consolation prize at the position. He’s been awesome over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.69, and he’s coming off 49.5 FanDuel points without Aldridge in his last game. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.5% with Aldridge off the court this season, so he should be able to overcome a tough matchup vs. the Jazz. DeRozan is simply too cheap on FanDuel, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Value
Kyle Anderson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games on FanDuel, and he’s in another prime spot vs. the Knicks. He’s currently projected for 28.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute this season. That should be more than enough playing time to pay off his $3,700 salary.
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Anderson (1) of the Memphis Grizzlies.
Fast Break
Zach LaVine could fly a bit under-the-radar today given the presence of DeRozan and possibly Harden, but he leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Only Harden has averaged more fantasy points per minute over the past month among today’s shooting guards, giving him the second-highest ceiling projection at the position.
What does Dennis Schroder have to do to get some respect? The guy has dominated recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.40 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, yet his price has actually decreased by -$200 over the past month. His current $6,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, so continue to fire him up with confidence.
Small Forward
Stud
It’s another weak slate at the small forward position, particularly on FanDuel given the lack of positional flexibility.
That said, Eric Gordon would be an interesting option if Harden is unable to suit up. He’s coming off a monster game in his last outing, scoring 68.7 FanDuel points at just $4,400. His price has jumped up for today’s matchup vs. the Blazers, and Westbrook being back in the lineup will obviously hurt him.
Still, Gordon has seen a usage bump of +6.0% with Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. Gordon is definitely too expensive if Harden is back in the lineup, but he can pay off his $6,100 salary on FanDuel if he’s out.
Value
It hasn’t taken Trevor Ariza long to carve out a role with the Blazers. He’s logged at least 31.9 minutes in each of his first two contests, and he’s currently projected for 30.4 minutes vs. the Rockets. He’s still dirt-cheap at just $3,700 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.69. Ariza is a very cheap way to get exposure to what should be the best fantasy game of the day.
Fast Break
Marcus Morris probably won’t end the season as a member of the Knicks, but he’s enjoying his time with the team for now. He’s on pace to post the highest usage rate of his career, which has led to an average of 19.3 points per game. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 34.2 minutes in four straight games. That makes him a strong target at his current salary across the industry.
Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Morris (13) of the New York Knicks.
Rudy Gay isn’t playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he doesn’t need to at his current salary. He’s seen a price decrease of -$1,500 over the past month on DraftKings, and he’s priced at just $3,600 for today’s contest vs. the Jazz. Gay has averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with Aldridge off the court this season, so he has a pretty safe floor.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis is coming off a monster triple-double performance in his last outing, recording 60.3 FanDuel points vs. the Blazers. He’s in another great spot today vs. the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66, and his $8,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
That said, this isn’t exactly a slam-dunk spot. His performance last game came with Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner out of the lineup, and both players are currently questionable. Victor Oladipo will also make his season debut, although his minutes will be limited until the All-Star break. I’d personally like to see at least one of Brogdon or Turner ruled out before I fire up Sabonis in my lineups. Make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for all the latest injury information.
Value
The Kings remain shorthanded in their frontcourt, with both Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes remaining sidelined for today’s contest. That makes Harry Giles an interesting punt play at $3,500 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings. Giles has been productive when given a chance this season, averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s expected to see a handful of minutes vs. the Thunder. It’s also a great matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.55.
Fast Break
Julius Randle stands out as an awesome value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and his average of 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over the past month ranks third. He’s played at least 33.4 minutes in four straight games, so he has nice upside vs. the Grizzlies.
Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Julius Randle (30) of the New York Knicks.
Clint Capela is currently questionable for the Rockets, and his absence would increase the appeal for P.J. Tucker. Tucker isn’t exactly a monster when on the court — he’s averaged just 0.56 FanDuel points per minute over the past month — but he has scored at least 25.1 FanDuel points in four straight games. You’ll take that kind of production at just $4,300.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond is currently questionable vs. the Nets with a wrist injury, but he’s in an elite spot if he’s able to suit up. The Nets have given up big games in bunches to opposing centers, giving Drummond an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.51. He recorded 20 points and 21 rebounds vs. the Nets just two games ago, resulting in 54.25 DraftKings points. Drummond leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Value
Go right back to the well with Jakob Poeltl vs. the Jazz. It’s obviously a difficult matchup, but Poeltl has been the biggest beneficiary with Aldridge out of the lineup this season. He’s averaged a team-high 34.4 minutes in three games without Aldridge this season, resulting in an average of 34.03 FanDuel points. That’s too much production to pass up at $4,400.
Pictured: Spurs C Jakob Poeltl (25), Photo Credit: Christian Petersen-Getty Images
Fast Break
Capela is an interesting option for the Rockets if he’s able to suit up. He’s been priced down to $7,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%, and he has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Blazers. They’ve been awful against opposing centers this season, giving Capela an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.05.
Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among today’s centers. He’s also coming off 33.6 minutes in his last contest, so he has tremendous upside at $6,400 if he sees a comparable workload today.
Pictured: Spurs C Jakob Poeltl (25)
Photo Credit: Christian Petersen-Getty Images
