The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook was a late scratch on Monday, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup tonight vs. the Grizzlies. That’s a good thing for fantasy owners. He’s been phenomenal in the Rockets’ small-ball lineup recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.66 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s almost completely eliminated the 3-pointer from his arsenal, which has greatly increased his scoring efficiency. Westbrook also remains capable of piling up the peripherals given his average of 7.9 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game.
The Grizzlies represent an elite matchup. The’ve played at the sixth-fastest pace, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 124.5 is the top mark on the slate. The Grizzlies have also struggled with PGs in particular, giving Westbrook an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.30 on DraftKings.
Value
Jimmy Butler is questionable for the Heat today, and Kendrick Nunn would be an appealing value option if Butler is ultimately ruled out. Nunn has scored at least 33.6 FanDuel points in each of his past two games without Butler, and Nunn has averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.5 in 10 games without Butler this season. He’s underpriced at just $4,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray has been outstanding on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.23 FanDuel points per minute. A lack of playing time has kept him from putting up monster numbers, but he’s started to see more minutes recently. He’s logged at least 33.6 minutes in two of his past four games, and he’s currently projected for 29.9 vs. the Mavericks. He has a very strong ceiling for his price tag.
Luka Dončić remains priced down across the industry. He’s seen a price decrease of -$1,600 over the past month on DraftKings and -$900 on FanDuel, which makes him an intriguing buy-low target vs. the Spurs. He posted a negative Plus/Minus in his last game, but he was limited to just 25.2 minutes in a blowout win. The Spurs are also a strong matchup, ranking merely 27th in defensive efficiency.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It’s hard to knock James Harden at the moment. He’s scored at least 61.0 DraftKings points in each of his past five games, and he’s been awesome in general in games without Clint Capela this season. He’s posted a usage rate of +38.6% in 16 contests, resulting in an average of 61.38 DraftKings points per game.
Harden also benefits from the same elite matchup as Westbrook, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37 on DraftKings.
Value
DeMar DeRozan isn’t exactly priced like a value option at $7,000 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel, but he still stands out as one of the strongest plays of the day. The Spurs will be without LaMarcus Aldridge for today’s matchup vs. the Spurs, and no one on the team has seen a bigger bump with Aldridge off the court this season. DeRozan has increased his usage rate by a team-high +5.8% in that situation, resulting in an average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving remains out for the Nets, which makes Caris LeVert an appealing option. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +11.96 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.4% in games without Irving this season. His price remains very reasonable on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Very few options stand out as better values on DraftKings than FanDuel, but Mikal Bridges is one of the exceptions. He should see plenty of minutes with Kelly Oubre out of the lineup — he’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models — and players with comparable minute projections and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.30 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Small Forward
Stud
This position is pretty uninspiring at the top today. Only Paul George is priced above $6,800 on FanDuel, and he’s tough to trust given the amount of minutes he’s playing at the moment.
That said, Tobias Harris is an interesting option at $6,600. That’s a pretty reasonable price tag, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. He should also see a slight boost in value today with Ben Simmons out of the lineup. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute with Simmons off the court this season, and he should see a healthy amount of minutes vs. the Cavs. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
Value
Josh Jackson is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he stands out as one of the best value options of the day. The Grizzlies are thin in the frontcourt at the moment, with both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke both expected to miss at least at least two weeks with injuries. Jackson has averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has the potential to take advantage of some additional playing time.
Kyle Anderson could also see a few extra minutes, and he’s averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s slightly more expensive across the industry, but his $4,400 salary on FanDuel still comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Moe Harkless could be worth some consideration at $3,200 on DraftKings. He hasn’t been particularly effective as a member of the Knicks, scoring 16.25 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his three contests, but he is seeing plenty of playing time. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.86.
Bojan Bogdanovic has been a reliable option over the past month, posting a Consistency Rating of 83% on FanDuel. That said, his salary has actually decreased by -$600 over that time frame, and his current $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Power Forward
Stud
John Collins has been an outstanding value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.10 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His price has stayed pretty stagnant over that time frame, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. His current matchup vs. the Magic isn’t ideal — they’ve played at the third-slowest pace this season — but Collins simply too cheap at $8,000.
He isn’t as strong of a target on DraftKings, but he still leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.
Value
Jarrett Allen has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Wizards. They rank fifth in pace, 29th in defensive efficiency, and dead last in team rebound rate, which is an elite combination for big men. Overall, Allen owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70 on FanDuel. Allen has also seen a slight uptick in minutes recently, and he’s increased his production to 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Al Horford’s salary continues to plummet, and he’s been priced down all the way to $4,800 on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Cavs. He saw a few additional minutes in their last contest without Ben Simmons, and he’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s an interesting buy-low target.
Robert Covington has been a nice addition for the Rockets. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s playing a solid handful of minutes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his first seven games with the squad, and he’s scored at least 32.25 DraftKings points in four straight games. Covington is a pretty safe investment at $6,200.
Center
Stud
There are plenty of expensive options to choose from at the center position, but Deandre Ayton stands out as one of the top options. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. Overall, he owns the second-highest ceiling projection at the position, yet he’s just the sixth-priciest option.
Ayton is coming off a brutal showing in his last game, but he was limited to just 21.3 minutes in a brutal matchup vs. the Jazz. That said, he’s been playing plenty of minutes recently, and he should return to a normal workload today. The Clippers are also a much friendlier matchup, giving Ayton an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.39.
Value
It’s hard to look past Jakob Poeltl today. He’s dominated in four games without Aldridge this season, averaging 31.3 DraftKings points per game over 31.4 minutes. The result is an average Plus/Minus of +11.8. He’s dirt cheap across the industry, but his $3,200 salary on DraftKings makes him one of the best values of the day.
Fast Break
Gorgui Dieng is another potential value option worth considering. He should see a healthy amount of playing time today for the Grizzlies, and he’s averaged a stout 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s not as strong of a value as Poeltl on DraftKings, but his $4,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Given all the value at center, Joel Embiid could possibly fly a bit under-the-radar today. That would be a mistake. He’s coming off a monster performance in his last game, scoring 78.3 FanDuel points vs. the Hawks, and he should to produce at a high level with Simmons out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.5% in that situation, resulting in an average of 1.57 FanDuel points per minute. His matchup vs. the Cavs also results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.10.
Photo credit: Mark Sobhani-NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Spurs SG DeMar DeRozan (10)
