NBA DFS Breakdown (Wednesday, Feb. 10): Where’s The Value on Big Slate?

Wednesday features a nine-game NBA DFS slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. We’ll be using the suite of tools at FantasyLabs, specifically the Player Models and projections, to break down the slate.

Point Guard

Stud

Luka Doncic has been a bit up-and-down recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just three of his past 10 games on DraftKings, but he has arguably the highest ceiling in fantasy. He’s increased his production to 1.62 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the second-highest mark on today’s slate.

Doncic is also in a solid spot vs. the Hawks. Atlanta ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of both pace and defensive efficiency, but the Mavericks’ implied team total of 117.75 still ranks third on the slate.

Value

The Thunder are going to be extremely thin at the point guard Wednesday vs. the Lakers. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, George Hill, and Theo Maledon have all been ruled out, which leaves the team without their top three options at the position.

With that in mind, Kenrich Williams has plenty of appeal as a value play. He’s averaged a solid 0.87 DraftKings per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Williams has PG/SF eligibility on DraftKings, but he’s a SF only on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Coby White has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on FanDuel. He’s in a solid spot tonight vs. the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17 on FanDuel, and his 12 Pro Trends ranks first at the position. He also leads all point guards with a Bargain Rating of 82%, which makes him an excellent buy-low candidate.

LaMelo Ball has garnered most of the love for the Hornets recently – which is to be expected – but Terry Rozier has quietly been a nice source of fantasy value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he should continue to see some additional minutes and usage with Devonte’ Graham out of the lineup.

Shooting Guard

Stud

James Harden is going to command a ton of ownership tonight vs. the Pacers. He’s coming off 62.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, and the Nets will be without Kevin Durant for the third straight game. Harden has increased his usage rate by +1.5% and his assist rate by +3.0% in four games without Durant this season, resulting in an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. Harden has played massive minutes since arriving in Brooklyn – he’s logged at least 39.4 minutes in three of his past four games – so that gives him excellent upside vs. the Pacers.

Value

Denzel Valentine started the year deep on the Bulls’ bench, but he’s emerged as a big factor in their rotation recently. He’s logged at least 27.8 minutes in back-to-back games, and that doesn’t figure to change with Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter, and Wendell Carter Jr. all out of the lineup. Valentine has averaged 0.95 DraftKings per minute this season, so he can do some serious damage with increased playing time.

Fast Break

It’s going to be hard for those paying up at the position not to target Harden, which means Bradley Beal could be a bit overlooked. That would be a mistake. Beal is way underpriced on DraftKings – his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99% — and his average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is nearly identical to Harden’s.

Eric Bledsoe is priced at just $5,100 on FanDuel, and he’s tough to ignore at that salary. He’s currently projected for 30.2 minutes vs. the Bulls, and Bledsoe has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.76 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool). He hasn’t been as effective on a per-minute basis in New Orleans as he has been in some of his previous destinations, but he still provides a nice combination of floor and ceiling at his current salary.

Small Forward

Stud

The Nets aren’t the only team that will be missing a superstar on today’s slate. The Clippers will be playing without Paul George, which gives Kawhi Leonard a significant boost in value. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.5% with George off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. The Timberwolves also represent an excellent matchup, ranking just 21st in defensive efficiency.

Value

Kyle Anderson earned the nickname “Slo-Mo” because of his deliberate style of play, but that nickname doesn’t apply to his fantasy game. He can rack up fantasy points quickly – he’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – and his playing time is trending in the right direction. He’s logged at least 30.2 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s unsurprisingly finished with at least 30.0 DraftKings points in both contests.

Fast Break

Will Barton should continue to see all the minutes he can handle with Gary Harris out of the lineup. He’s logged at least 36 minutes in four straight games, and he’s eclipsed the 37-minute threshold in three of them. Barton finished with 34.2 FanDuel points in his last contest, and he’s one of the better values at the position at just $5,400.

Nicolas Batum is another member of the Clippers who should benefit from the absence of George. He’s had a career renaissance with the Clippers this season, and he’s increased his production to 0.79 DraftKings points per minute with George off the court. He’s projected for 36.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be more than enough playing time for him to return value.

Power Forward

Stud

What does Domantas Sabonis have to do to get some respect around here? To be fair, Sabonis has struggled in each of his past two games, but he finished with at least 59.25 DraftKings points in his previous two contests. Overall, he’s averaged a stout 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he ranks sixth in the league in minutes per game.

He has a chance to put together a huge performance tonight vs. the Nets. Brooklyn has been nothing short of a disaster defensively since acquiring Harden, and they’ve been even worse with Durant off the court. Sabonis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.37 on DraftKings, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Value

The big question on today’s slate is “where is the value?” There are tons of stud options to pay up for, but the true value options are definitely lacking. There aren’t a ton of players priced below $4,500 on DraftKings that stand out as viable targets.

That should make Isaiah Roby a popular target. He’s missed each of the past two games for the Thunder, but he’s not listed on the injury report for tonight’s matchup vs. the Lakers. He played more than 33.5 minutes in his last game before the injury, and he’s currently projected for 31.8 minutes in his first game. Roby has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is an excellent mark considering his salary. He’s a particularly strong target at $3,700 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.

Fast Break

P.J. Washington is another PF who stands out as significantly underpriced on DraftKings. His $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season. His playing time has been down a bit after returning to the lineup following a short injury absence, but the Hornets have played in two straight blowouts. He should return to his normal workload if today’s game is more competitive.

It might be time to fire up Davis Bertans. He’s played limited minutes virtually all season, but he logged 37.8 minutes in the Wizards’ last game. He probably won’t see as much playing time tonight vs. the Raptors, but he’s still projected for 29.7 minutes in our NBA Models. Bertans is one of the big men in the league in terms of 3-point shooting, so he always has the potential to fill it up from behind the arc.

Center

Stud

Al Horford isn’t exactly priced like a stud, but he has the chance to deliver stud-like production for the shorthanded Thunder. He’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries when the three injured point guards have been off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +11.2% and his assist rate by +12.9%, resulting in an average of 1.65 DraftKings points per minute. Horford will likely lose some playing time with Roby back in the rotation, but he’s still projected for 29.7 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be more than enough time for him to return value at his current salary.

Value

Chris Boucher isn’t much cheaper than Horford, but both players actually fit very similar profiles today. Neither player is expected to see a ton of minutes, but they should absolutely dominate when on the court. Boucher’s playing time is trending the right direction – he’s played at least 29 minutes in back-to-back games – and he’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season.

The Raptors also own one of the best matchups of the day. They’re taking on the Washington Wizards, who rank first in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Raptors’ implied team total of 120.0 points ranks first on the slate, and Boucher owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Cody Zeller has been playing some of the best basketball of his career recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.11 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s increased his production to 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. His salary has risen over that time frame, but his $5,200 price tag on FanDuel still comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s also in a great spot vs. the Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.24.

DeAndre Jordan could be another solid source of value tonight on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,500, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. He’s also seen a slight bump in playing time with Durant out of the lineup, which gives him a higher floor than usual.