NBA DFS Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 30): Grizzlies Stand Out Without Ja Morant

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Wednesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

Luka Doncic has not gotten off to the best start this season. He’s averaged just 47.1 DraftKings points per game (55.4 last season). He’s also playing without stud teammate Kristaps Porzingis, which makes his decline in production even more disappointing.

That said, there’s no reason to expect his struggles to continue. He’s actually on pace for a new career-high in usage rate, and his mark of 38.5% is the highest mark in the league so far this season. The only thing that has kept his production down has been poor shooting numbers, particularly his 12.5% mark from 3-point range. With some better shooting luck, he has the potential to smash this price tag in a pace-up spot vs. the Hornets.

He’s a solid value on DraftKings, where his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

Value

The Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant for the foreseeable future, which leaves the team with a massive hole at PG. D’Anthony Melton will also miss his third straight game due to the league’s COVID-19 protocols, which leaves Tyus Jones as the only real option at the position. He played 34.7 minutes off the bench after Morant got hurt in their last game, and he’s projected for 30.1 minutes in our NBA Models.

Jones has always been the type of player who performs well in an expanded role. He’s been projected for a comparable workload in 13 previous games, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.50 in those contests (per the Trends tool).

Fast Break

Jrue Holiday is coming off a sensational shooting performance yesterday. He shot 60% from the field and 3-point range, resulting in 50.1 FanDuel points in just 26.2 minutes. He’s underpriced at just $6,400 on FanDuel.

Dejounte Murray stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He posted a negative Plus/Minus in his last game, but he scored at least 42.0 DraftKings points in each of his first two contests. This is a great buy-low opportunity.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Paul George remains underpriced on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%. George has been priced with a comparable salary in 98 previous contests dating back to 2016, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +2.68.

He would become one of the top plays of the day if Kawhi Leonard were to miss his third straight game. Leonard took a vicious elbow to the mouth on Christmas, and he’s currently questionable to suit up. It does sound like Leonard is trending in the right direction, so make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insiders tool.

Value

Bogdan Bogdanovic is coming off his best game with the Hawks. He posted a Plus/Minus of +13.19 on DraftKings over 30.5 minutes, and he’s seen a nice bump in playing time with Danilo Gallinari out of the lineup recently. Gallo is currently questionable for Wednesday’s contest, and Bogdanovic would project as one of the best values of the day if he’s ultimately ruled out.

Fast Break

Jaylen Brown has been a reliable investment so far this season. He’s scored at least 31.0 DraftKings points in all four games, and he’s scored at least 42.5 DraftKings points in two of them. He’s on pace to shatter his previous career-high in usage, which is not surprising with Kemba Walker sidelined and Gordon Hayward in Charlotte.

Lonnie Walker has averaged 25.8 DKFP through his first three games this season, and he should continue to see an expanded workload with Derrick White out of the Spurs’ lineup. He’s played at least 34 minutes in two of his first three games, and he averaged 0.81 DKFP per minute with White off the court last season. He does have a tough matchup vs. the Lakers, but he’s too cheap given his current role.

Small Forward

Stud

Jayson Tatum has been the other half of the dynamic duo for the Celtics this season. He’s always been a gifted scorer, but he’s elevated his production in the peripheral categories this season. He’s grabbed at least seven rebounds in all four games this season, and he’s handed out at least four assists in each of his past two. If he can continue to produce in those categories, he has a chance to join the truly elite from a fantasy perspective.

He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Grizzlies. They rank eighth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency to start the season, and Tatum owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.44 on DraftKings. He’s also underpriced on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 94%.

Value

Kyle Anderson has been awesome over his past two games, scoring at least 41.25 DraftKings points in each contest, and he has a chance to carry a larger portion of the offense with Morant out of the lineup. Anderson is best described as a “point forward”, meaning his very comfortable operating with the ball in his hands. Unsurprisingly, he’s increased his usage rate by +6.9% and his assist rate by +8.0% with Morant off the court this season, so he has the potential to put up huge numbers in his absence.

Fast Break

The Heat were absolutely run out of the gym yesterday by the Bucks, but they’ll get a shot at revenge on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable after missing yesterday’s contest, and Tyler Herro would be an elite option if he’s ultimately ruled out. He’s averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute with Butler off the court this season, and he’s averaged 32.7 minutes per game to start the season. He’s way too cheap at just $4,500 on FanDuel.

DeMar DeRozan is playing more power forward this season for the Spurs to open up more playing time for some of their young guards. That has worked out well for the team, but it has also worked out well for DeRozan from a fantasy perspective. He’s stuffed the stat sheet through his first three games, and he’s posted at least 49.75 DraftKings points in two of them. He’s priced at just $6,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo didn’t even have to break a sweat on Tuesday vs. the Heat. They won the game by nearly 50 points, and Giannis finished with just nine points, six rebounds, and three assists in 24 minutes. These are the types of performances that can happen with the Bucks because they’re so dominant during the regular season.

If Wednesday’s game is more competitive – and it would help if Butler can return to the lineup – Giannis will offer arguably the highest ceiling on the slate. He hasn’t had a truly dominant performance yet this season, but no one is capable of matching his production on a per-minute basis.

Value

P.J. Washington has posted at least 39.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he has solidified his role in the Hornets’ rotation. Cody Zeller will miss at least the next four weeks, which leaves the team without a ton of viable options in the frontcourt. Washington is starting at PF alongside Bismack Biyombo, but Washington has also seen some minutes as the backup center. That’s given him a bit more rebounding upside, and he’s responded with at least eight boards in each of his past two games.

Fast Break

It’s tough to ignore Kevin Durant at just $8,400 on DraftKings. He’s yet to post a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings this season, but he obviously has the potential to crush this price tag. He’s historically been priced in this range in just 24 previous contests, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.55. The Nets are also in an elite spot tonight vs. the Hawks, resulting in a slate-high implied team total of 122.75 points.

John Collins is a nice buy-low option on FanDuel. His salary has decreased by nearly -$1,000 since the start of the season, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 63%. He also leads the position with 13 Pro Trends and an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.67.

Center

Stud

Jonas Valanciunas has always been one of the best producers in fantasy on a per-minute basis, and he’s getting the opportunity to play more for the Grizzlies this season. Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to recover from a knee injury, which has opened the door for a few extra minutes per game for Valanciunas. He’s averaged a career-high 32.7 minutes per game through his first three contests, and he’s responded with an average of 40.55 DraftKings points per game.

Valanciunas has a chance to be even more involved offensively with Morant out of the lineup. Morant ranks first on the team with a usage rate of 36.0, and Valanciunas is one of the most obvious candidates to see more shot attempts in his absence.

Value

Bismack Biyombo hasn’t flashed a massive ceiling this season, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in back-to-back starts. Biyombo averaged just under 1.00 DKFP per minute last season, and he’s played at least 30 minutes in each of his past two games.

Fast Break

Jusuf Nurkic hasn’t been the best fantasy producer so far this season, but he’s still averaged a solid 1.15 DraftKings points per minute. His production has been kept in check by playing 26 minutes or less in two of his first three games, but he’s currently projected for 29.0 minutes in our NBA Models. Nurkic has historically been a solid investment with a comparable salary and minute projection, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.33 during his time with the Blazers.

Since opening night, the Bucks haven’t played in a competitive basketball game, which has really hurt Brook Lopez from a fantasy perspective. He’s played 20.9 minutes or less in each of his past three games, and he’s unsurprisingly failed to return value in each of those contests. He should be expected to play closer to 25 minutes if tonight’s contest is more competitive, making him a solid buy-low option at $4,500 on FanDuel.