The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Today’s game between the Hawks and Timberwolves figures to be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. The total currently sits at 239 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a comfortable margin. Both teams are also going to be missing a bunch of players due to injuries and trades.
Trae Young stands out for the Hawks. He’s currently listed as probable, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.47 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. No one at the position is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models, which is a juicy combination. He’s underpriced at $9,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
The Mavericks are another shorthanded team to target. Luka Doncic and Seth Curry have already been ruled out, and J.J. Barea is listed as questionable.
That should result in another increased workload for Jalen Brunson. He didn’t exactly thrive in that situation in his last game, scoring just 14.3 FanDuel points, but he did play 30.5 minutes. Brunson has averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute with Doncic and Curry off the court this season, so the additional playing time bodes well for his outlook on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Ja Morant has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, which has caused his salary to drop to just $6,900 on FanDuel. That represents a decrease of $1,200 from its peak. He’s a solid buy-low option today in a solid matchup vs. the Mavs.
The Raptors have somewhat quietly won 11 straight games, despite the fact that they’ve been dealing with some injuries. Marc Gasol and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have each missed the past four games, and Gasol has already been ruled out for today’s contest vs. the Pacers. The Raptors have played a tight rotation in their absence, which increases the appeal for Kyle Lowry. He’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his salary has decreased by at least $1,600 over the past month across the industry.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker has been solid recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.82 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 38.1 minutes. His matchup vs. the Pistons isn’t ideal, but Booker’s 10 Pro Trends are still tied for the most at the position on DraftKings.
Value
Caris LeVert is coming off a monster game in his last outing, scoring 44.1 FanDuel points at just $4,100. His salary remains affordable at $4,500 for today’s matchup vs. the Warriors, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He should continue to carry a large workload with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup. He’s posted a usage rate of 32.2% in six games without Irving this season, resulting in an average of 0.95 FanDuel points per minute.
Fast Break
The Timberwolves lead the slate with an implied team total of 121.75 points, and they are going to be extremely shorthanded today. Allen Crabbe is doubtful with an injury, and Robert Covington, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh, and Keita-Bates Diop were all traded. None of the players that they acquired in that deal will be available to make their debut.
Andrew Wiggins will likely be asked to carry a larger workload that usual. He’s increased his usage rate to 30.6% with all of the injured/traded players off the court this season, and his $6,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
D’Angelo Russell has been a massive value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.22 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.12.
Small Forward
Stud
The Celtics have a subpar matchup today vs. the Magic, who have played at the third-slowest pace this season. That said, they have increased potential given their current injury situation. Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, and Daniel Theis have all been ruled out.
Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward could both provide stud-like production at midrange salaries. Hayward leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He served as the primary facilitator with Walker and Smart out of the lineup in their last game, and he’s scored at least 41.4 FanDuel points in three of his past four.
That said, Brown might be the more appealing target. He’s slightly cheaper across the industry, and he’s been an awesome value with Walker, Smart and Theis off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate to 29.1%, resulting in an average of 1.08 FanDuel points per minute.
Value
The Timberwolves are going to provide awesome value today at the SF position. It starts with Jarrett Culver, who could operate as the team’s starting PG. He’s averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 31.2 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s priced at just $4,000 on FanDuel, and Culver has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.06 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Kelan Martin is even cheaper across the industry, and he’s another interesting option. He hasn’t played much recently, but he has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season. Martin has played at least 19.9 minutes in seven games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of them. He should see at least that much playing time today vs. the Hawks.
Fast Break
Derrick Jones Jr. has taken on an increased workload for the Heat recently. He’s coming off a whopping 37.4 minutes in his last game, and he’s currently projected for 30.1 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s been productive when given the opportunity to play, averaging 0.86 DraftKings points per minute.
No one at the position has seen a larger workload than Kelly Oubre recently. He’s played at least 36.3 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s eclipsed 38 minutes in three of them. Oubre has averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s capable of making the most of his playing time.
Power Forward
Stud
There are a lot of values and not a lot of studs on today’s slate, which should make it easy to pay up for Kristaps Porzingis. He has been absolutely awesome with Doncic out of the lineup this season, averaging 51.38 DraftKings points per game. He has been priced up a bit across the industry, but he still offers plenty of value at his current price tag.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Mavericks forward Kristaps Porzingis (6).
Value
Serge Ibaka should continue to provide big value for the shorthanded Raptors. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on FanDuel, and he’s currently projected for 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models. Ibaka has averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Fast Break
Maxi Kleber is another potential option for the Mavericks. He’s coming off 35.1 minutes in his last game, which bodes well for his fantasy value moving forward. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage with that much playing time. His matchup vs. the Grizzlies is also excellent, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.22.
Tristan Thompson is listed as doubtful, and his absence would make Larry Nance Jr. a very appealing option on FanDuel. He’s one of the best pure values of the day given his Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s also increased his production to 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +11.12 over his past 10 games, and that was playing an average of just 26.9 minutes per game. He has massive upside if he sees a few additional minutes today.
Center
Stud
Paying up at center seems like another preferred strategy, and the top option depends on which site you’re playing on.
Nikola Jokic stands out on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%. His matchup vs. the Jazz is definitely tough — Rudy Gobert is one of the best defenders in the league — but he could be looking at a massive workload. Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee remain out with injuries, and Michael Porter Jr. is currently listed as doubtful. Jerami Grant was also upgraded from doubtful to questionable, and Jauncho Hernangomez and Jarred Vanderbilt have been traded. Even Will Barton has been downgraded to questionable, so Jokic could be forced into larger usage rate than usual.
Karl-Anthony Towns stands out at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at $10,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.4% with all of the injured/traded players off the court this season, so he has the potential to improve upon his average of 1.64 FanDuel points per minute. His matchup vs. the Hawks is also much friendlier than Jokic’s; they rank fourth in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency.
Value
Enes Kanter returned to the Celtics’ lineup in their last game, and he could be looking at a few additional minutes with Theis on the sidelines. Kanter is one of the most productive players in fantasy on a per-minute basis — he’s averaged 1.35 FanDuel points per minute this season — so he has appeal any time he could see a bump in playing time.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert has posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, which has caused his price tag to drop from $10,300 to $8,200. That makes him a very appealing buy-low target, particularly given his matchup vs. the Nuggets. They’ve struggled mightily against opposing centers this season, giving Gobert an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.44.
Andre Drummond could fly a bit under the radar given the sheer volume of quality centers on today’s slate. He doesn’t see the same obvious boost in value as guys like Jokic and Towns, but his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s an appealing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Photo credit: Michael Gonzales-NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Timberwolves SF Jarrett Culver (23)
