The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic has blossomed into a fantasy superstar this season. He’s currently averaging 1.75 DraftKings points per minute, which is more than everyone except Giannis Antetokounmpo and Paul George on today’s slate. He’s coming off a monster performance in his last outing, recording 42 points, 11 rebounds and 12 assists en route to 78.25 DraftKings points.
Doncic is in a phenomenal spot today vs. the Golden State Warriors. They currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and Doncic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.47 on DraftKings. The Warriors are also on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, and the Mavericks’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks fourth on the slate.
Value
Tonight’s contest between the Spurs and Wizards figures to be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. The total currently sits at 237 points, which is the top mark on the slate. Both of these teams rank in the bottom three in defensive efficiency, and Washington has also played at the sixth-fastest pace.
The Spurs have exercised some caution with Dejounte Murray to start the season, but he’s averaged a dominant 1.31 DraftKings points per minute when he has been on the floor. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17 is one of the top marks at the position on DraftKings, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Fast Break
Terry Rozier is coming off a poor performance in his last game, which makes this a nice buy-low opportunity. His price has dropped to just $6,000 on DraftKings, but he’s averaged a solid 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 34.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and his matchup vs. the Nets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.73.
Kemba Walker is one of the few PGs who stands out as a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 79%. That represents a decrease of $1,200 after his last game, and he’s scored at least 38.5 FanDuel points in eight of his past 11 games. That’s a very reasonable price tag for him.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden posted a negative Plus/Minus in his last contest for the first time in eight games, and even that wasn’t entirely his fault. He still recorded 56.0 DraftKings points, and he was limited to just 33.1 minutes in a blowout win. Overall, Harden has been just as dominant from a fantasy perspective despite the addition of Russell Westbrook in the offseason, and he’s currently on pace to lead the league in scoring and usage rate for the third straight year.
That said, this is an awful spot vs. the Denver Nuggets. They rank 27th in pace and seventh in defensive efficiency, which is a brutal combination for DFS. Harden owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.58 on DraftKings, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 110.75 is well below their league-best average of 119.5 points per game.
Harden should be a contrarian target — he’s currently projected for just 9-12% ownership on DraftKings — but there’s a reason for that.
Value
Sterling Brown has seen a bump in playing time recently thanks to the injury to Khris Middleton, and he’s been able to take advantage. He’s scored at least 21.1 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, and he’s averaged a strong 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a strong target at just $4,100 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%.
Fast Break
The Nets are currently dealing with injuries to both Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert, which has forced Spencer Dinwiddie into a massive role on offense. He’s posted a usage rate of 38.9% with both players off the court this season, and he posted a usage rate of 37.5% with both players out of the lineup in his last contest. Overall, he’s averaged 1.24 FanDuel points per minute in that situation and is currently projected for 34.2 minutes, which makes him too cheap at $7,300.
Jimmy Butler stands out as one of the better pure values of the day on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings point per minute this season and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.30 through his first eight games.
Small Forward
Stud
No one has been able to keep up with Giannis Antetokounmpo from a fantasy perspective this season. He’s averaged 1.91 DraftKings points per minute, and the only thing that has been able to stop him has been reduced minutes in blowouts. His turnover numbers are a little bit concerning — he’s averaging a career-high 4.8 turnovers per game — but that’s to be expected given his increased usage rate.
Giannis is in a wonderful spot today vs. the Hawks. They currently rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 121.75 points ranks first on the slate. He leads all SFs in Projected Plus/Minus despite being the highest-priced player at the position.
Value
Jonathan Isaac stands out at just $5,500 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 31.3 minutes in our NBA Models. Isaac has missed the past two games with an injury, but he’s expected to be a full go barring a setback during pregame warmups.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson has been ruled out for the Philadelphia 76ers, which could give Tobias Harris a slight boost in value. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with Richardson off the court this season, and he could see a few additional minutes in this contest. His $6,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
Will Barton is coming off his worst game of the season, which has caused his salary to drop by $600 for today’s matchup vs. the Rockets. It’s an elite spot — the Rockets rank first in pace this season — and Barton had scored at least 30.2 FanDuel points in each of his prior six games.
Power Forward
Stud
It’s been a rough start to the season for Kristaps Porzingis, but he appears to be turning things around. He’s pulled down at least 10 boards in each of his past three games, and he’s averaged 41.33 DraftKings points per game over that time frame. He’s also shot just 20-of-51 from the field over that stretch (39.2%), so he has room to improve moving forward.
Porzingis is in one of the best spots possible today vs. the Warriors. They rank 23rd in rebound rate in addition to struggling defensively, which is a wonderful combination for opposing big men. Porzingis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.49 on DraftKings, which is the top mark at the PF position.
He’s a particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Value
Marvin Williams has seen a boost in playing time recently. He’s logged at least 23.5 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s currently projected for 25.8 minutes in our NBA Models. That said, his price tag has barely budged on FanDuel, and his $3,900 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. He’s also in a nice spot vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.53.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge has been hit-or-miss this season, but he’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Wizards. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.56 on FanDuel, and his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 71%. His inconsistent performances this season will likely result in lower ownership than expected as well.
Larry Nance Jr. is expected to rejoin the Cavs lineup after missing the past two games, and his timing could not be better. Tristan Thompson is getting the night off, which will give Nance the opportunity to start and play a few additional minutes. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and Nance has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.38 with a comparable salary and minute projection on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has a difficult matchup today vs. the Utah Jazz, but the Jazz weren’t able to slow him down in their last matchup. He scored 63.25 DraftKings points in 33.4 minutes, and he was able to exploit Rudy Gobert on the perimeter. He made seven 3-point attempts in that contest, which was tied for a season-high.
Towns would see a boost in value today if Andrew Wiggins is ultimately ruled out. Head coach Ryan Saunders said he would be a game-time decision after missing the past three games. Towns has increased his usage rate to 32.6% with Wiggins off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.91 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Ante Zizic is another member of the Cavs who could see a few additional minutes with Thompson out of the lineup. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 71%. He hasn’t exactly crushed when on the court this season — he’s averaged just 0.64 FanDuel points per minute — but he doesn’t have to do much to provide value at his current salary.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic stands out as one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He has a tough matchup vs. the Toronto Raptors, but he still leads the position with 14 Pro Trends.
Joel Embiid doesn’t figure to garner much attention today given the presence of studs like Doncic, Giannis and Towns. That makes him an appealing pivot for GPPs. His average of 1.61 DraftKings points per minute is the seventh-highest mark on the slate, and he has an exploitable matchup vs. the New York Knicks.
Pictured: Mavericks G Luka Doncic (77)
Photo Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
