The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
What does Russell Westbrook have to do to get some respect from DraftKings? He has started the season on fire for the Houston Rockets, posting an average Plus/Minus of +14.16 through his first three games. His usage rate of 28.2% is a slight decrease from his final season with the Thunder, but he has made up for it by posting career bests in assist rate and rebound rate. The Rockets are also playing at the fastest pace in the league at the moment, which gives him plenty of opportunities to pile up counting stats.
He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Washington Wizards. They finished 28th in defensive efficiency last season, and they don’t figure to be much improved this year. The Rockets are currently implied for 120.25 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a considerable margin.
Westbrook leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
D.J. Augustin stands out on FanDuel at just $4,500. He has lost some minutes this season to Markelle Fultz, but he’s still seeing a healthy amount of minutes as Orlando’s starting point guard. He has an excellent matchup today vs. the New York Knicks, who have been torched by opposing point guards to start the season. Augustin owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.05, which is the top mark at the position.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard is occasionally overlooked at this position, but he shouldn’t be from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.66 through his first four games on DraftKings, and his average of 1.36 DraftKings points per minute represents a solid increase from his mark last season (1.25). No one at the point guard position is currently projected for more minutes in our NBA Models, and his matchup vs. the Thunder results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.49.
Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Damian Lillard
Malcolm Brogdon continued his scorching hot start for the Pacers in his last game, posting 46.5 DraftKings points in 34.7 minutes. He’s now scored at least 45.75 DraftKings points in all three games this season thanks to an average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute.
The most encouraging part of his most recent performance is that he still managed to dominate despite an off shooting night. He was just 5-of-17 from the field in that contest, so he has a huge ceiling for his price tag if his jumper is falling.
Shooting Guard
Stud
I will continue to take the discount with James Harden on DraftKings, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. His ceiling has obviously decreased with the addition of Westbrook in the offseason, but he’s still carrying one of the largest offensive workloads in the league.
He leads the team with a 37.2% usage rate, but has been plagued by some abysmal shooting numbers to start the year. He’s currently shooting just 28.6% from the field and 15.0% from 3-point range, which are well below his marks of 44.2% and 36.8% last season. Harden has still averaged 49.8 DraftKings points per game, so he’s going to be just fine when he sees some positive regression with his shooting numbers.
He benefits from the same elite matchup as Westbrook, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.71 on DraftKings.
Value
The Warriors are begging for one of their role players to step up this season, and it looks like Damion Lee could be that guy. He’s coming off a huge performance in their last game, scoring 42.25 DraftKings points over 27.9 minutes. It should be noted that he saw a few additional minutes because that game was a blowout, but he’s still projected for a healthy 23.5 minutes on today’s slate. Lee averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of limited playing time.
He’s a prime punt candidate on DraftKings at the absolute minimum.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was one of the key pieces in the Paul George trade, and he’s gotten off to an excellent start with the Thunder. He’s capable of filling up the box score — he’s posted at least seven rebounds and four assists in each of his past three games — resulting in an average of 1.16 DraftKings points per minute. He’s underpriced at just $6,900 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2).
The Celtics are in a tough spot today vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, who ranked first in the league in defensive efficiency last season. That said, Jaylen Brown’s price tag on FanDuel has yet to reflect his new role for the team.
He’s currently averaging career-bests in points, rebounds, and assists per game, despite the fact that he’s seen limited playing time in two of his first three contests. The result is an average of 1.12 FanDuel points per minute, and he should see more minutes per game moving forward. He’s an appealing target at just $5,700.
Small Forward
Stud
Speaking of the Bucks, it’s hard to argue against paying up for Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s coming off just 40.5 FanDuel points in his last game, but he wasn’t really needed in a blowout win vs. the Cavaliers. He’s on pace to post new career highs in usage rate, assist rate, and rebound rate, which is a scary proposition for those who don’t roster him in fantasy. He already averaged 1.71 FanDuel points per minute last season, and he could definitely improve on that mark this year.
His matchup vs. the Celtics is an interesting one. They have historically done a pretty good job against Giannis, but Al Horford is no longer there to serve as his primary defender. Giannis should have a much easier time against guys like Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Smart.
Value
Rodney Hood doesn’t have much of a ceiling, but he’s a nice value at his current salary across the industry. He’s going to be a big part of the Blazers’ rotation this season — he’s logged at least 30.4 minutes in each of their first four games — and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.23 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam looks like one of the best pivots of the day for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s currently projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel but has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position. He leads all players with 15 Pro Trends, and SFs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.69 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam (43).
Tobias Harris is seeing one of the largest workloads in the NBA this season. He currently leads the SF position with a projection of 36.6 minutes on today’s slate, and he’s logged at least 37.6 minutes in two of his first three contests. He’s also averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute, so he’s capable of take advantage of his playing time.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis has been one of the more interesting fantasy players this season. His playing time is way up — he’s averaging roughly 11 additional minutes per game through his first three contests — but his per-minute production is way down. It makes sense that he would be slightly less productive as a member of the starting unit than a focal point of the reserves, but his increase in playing time might not be as big of a boon to his fantasy stock as expected.
That said, you can throw all of that out the window today vs. the Brooklyn Nets. They have hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing big men since the beginning of last season, and they’re currently playing at the ninth-fastest pace. This is one of the best possible spots for Sabonis, and he owns the highest ceiling projected at the position on FanDuel. He’s worth some consideration as a contrarian GPP option.
Values
The power forward position looks like a great spot to pay down at today. It starts with Nerlens Noel, who would likely be the chalk if Steven Adams is unable to suit up. He’s currently considered a game-time decision with a knee injury, and Noel would be a prime candidate to replace him in the starting lineup. Noel averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute last season, so a few additional minutes could make him an elite value option.
Richaun Holmes stands out on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Holmes has always been an excellent producer on a per-minute basis, and he’s coming off a whopping 30.4 minutes in his last contest.
His only real competition for minutes at the center position is Dewayne Dedmon, who has been ineffective for most of the year. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Holmes enter the starting lineup today, but he should see a healthy amount of playing time even if he continues to come off the bench.
Fast Break
Dario Saric is another inexpensive option who deserves some attention. He’s a particularly nice value on FanDuel, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. The Suns are thin in the frontcourt given the suspension of Deandre Ayton, so Saric is a prime candidate to see a few additional minutes per game moving forward.
Rui Hachimura has gotten off to a phenomenal start as a rookie. He’s seeing a ton of playing time for a Wizards team that is largely devoid of talent, and he’s averaged a solid 0.92 FanDuel points per minute. He’s been priced up to $5,900 on FanDuel, but that’s still probably too cheap: He’s averaged over 30 FanDuel points per game this season.
Center
Studs
Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns will square off in a marquee battle of stud centers on today’s slate. Both players stand out as elite options on DraftKings, where each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 96%.
Let’s start with Towns. He’s been so good to start the season that his 51.25 DraftKings points in his last contest actually felt like a disappointment. He’s averaged a ridiculous 2.05 DraftKings points per minute, giving him some legit dark horse MVP vibes.
Unfortunately, his matchup vs. Embiid and the 76ers is about as tough as it gets. Embiid ranked third among qualified centers in Defensive Real Plus/Minus last season, and Philly has a chance to finish as the best defensive team in the NBA. They’re currently allowing just 93.9 points per 100 possessions, and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 107.75 is tied for the fourth-lowest mark on the slate.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32), 76ers center Joel Embiid (21).
Embiid has really only played one game this season — he was limited to just 23.3 minutes in Philly’s first game and missed their second — but he’s been almost as dominant as Towns when he’s been on the floor. He has averaged 1.97 DraftKings points per minute after averaging 1.64 DraftKings points per minute last season. He’s only slightly more expensive than Towns at $10,000, and Embiid has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.57 with a comparable salary on DraftKings. The 76ers’ implied team total of 115.25 is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate, so Embiid appears to be in the better spot.
Value
The value centers on today’s slate are pretty uninspiring, especially if you think Holmes continues to take more playing time from Dedmon. That said, Cody Zeller is worth some consideration at $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel. He’s posted a double-double in each of his first three games this season, and he’s averaged a stout 1.30 DraftKings points per minute. He also has an excellent matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.40 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
It’s always easy to find elite center options on DraftKings — the top-priced options almost always command Bargain Ratings of above 90% — but it’s much harder to do so on FanDuel. With that in mind, Myles Turner stands out at just $7,400. He’s the rare top option who has a better Bargain Rating on FanDuel than DraftKings, and he benefits from the same elite matchup as Sabonis. Turner has been an absolute workhorse to start the season, logging at least 38 minutes in each of his first three contests.
Nikola Vucevic could be a bit overlooked today given the dearth of quality options at the center position. That makes him a prime buy low option in an outstanding matchup vs. the Knicks. Vucevic has struggled this season, shooting just 33% from the field, but he averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute last year. He’s due for some position regression.
Pictured: Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo (34)
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
