The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabsTools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic has not disappointed in his last two games with Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup. He’s recorded a triple-double in both contests, resulting in at least 66.2 FanDuel points in each. Overall, he’s posted a usage rate of 40.2% and averaged 1.85 FanDuel points per minute with Porzingis off the court this season. Porzingis will miss today’s contest vs. the Nuggets, so Doncic should be looking at another big workload.
Unfortunately, the Nuggets do represent a difficult matchup. They’ve played at the second-slowest pace this season, giving Doncic an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.13 on FanDuel. Doncic is still way too cheap on FanDuel — his $11,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97% — but he has slightly more downside than in his previous two games without Porzingis.
Value
Kris Dunn disappointed in his last outing, but he was limited to just 23.1 minutes due to foul trouble. He’s expected to return to his usual workload today vs. the Pelicans, who represent a tremendous matchup. They rank sixth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, giving Dunn an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.44 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Raptors are going to be pretty shorthanded today. Pascal Siakam remains out with an injury, and Fred VanVleet will join him on the sidelines with a hamstring injury. Norman Powell is also doubtful with a shoulder injury.
With that in mind, Kyle Lowry should be asked to carry a massive workload. He’s already playing a ridiculous amount — he leads the league with an average of 38.3 minutes per game — and he’s currently projected for 40.2 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +7.6% with Siakam, VanVleet and Powell off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute.
Trae Young leads the position in Pro Trends on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and this game between the Rockets and Hawks figures to be one of the best of the day from a DFS perspective. Both of these teams rank in the top five in pace, and the 237-point total is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. Young is a particularly strong option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
On the other side of that contest, it’s going to be very tough to avoid James Harden. He already carries one of the largest workloads in basketball — he ranks first in usage rate and second in minutes per game — and Harden will be without his star running mate in Russell Westbrook for today’s contest. Harden has increased his usage rate to a ridiculous 47.1% with Westbrook off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.86 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaged 64.25 DraftKings points in three full games without Westbrook, giving him an average Plus/Minus of +4.1.
This isn’t just a regular matchup, either. The Hawks rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 122.5 is the highest mark on the slate by a full seven points.
Harden is a ridiculous value at $11,200 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%, but he still stands out as an elite option at $12,800 on DraftKings.
Value
Gary Harris has been pretty disappointing this season, averaging just 0.62 DraftKings points per minute. That said, Will Barton has been ruled out for today’s contest, so Harris should see a bunch of playing time. He’s currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s increased his production to 0.71 DraftKings points per minute with Barton off the court. He’s very reasonably priced at $4,000, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.47 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
The Pelicans are another team that will be shorthanded today. Jrue Holiday has been ruled out, which should result in more playing time for Josh Hart. Hart has been productive this season, averaging 0.82 FanDuel points per minute, so he can take advantage of an increased workload.
Eric Gordon is another member of the Rockets who should benefit from the absence of Westbrook. He’s played limited minutes since returning from an injury three games ago, but he has increased his fantasy production to 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over that small sample size. He could see a few additional minutes today, and his salary remains affordable across the industry.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo could see his lowest ownership of the year on today’s slate. Doncic and Harden both benefit from their team’s injury situations, so they should overshadow him. Antetokounmpo has also been a bit hit-or-miss recently because his playing time can vary on a night-to-night basis.
He’s in a boom-or-bust spot today vs. the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have been a disaster defensively this season, giving Giannis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72 on DraftKings. Unfortunately, that means there are some blowout concerns here. The Bucks have been the best team in basketball this season, so they’re 13.5-point favorites despite being on the road. Giannis has huge upside if the Warriors can keep this game competitive, but he could definitely wind up watching the fourth quarter instead of playing in it.
Value
OG Anunoby is priced at just $4,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s seen a reduction in fantasy value over the past month, averaging just 0.73 FanDuel points per minute, but he should benefit from the Raptors’ injuries today. They’re pretty thin on the wing without Siakam, VanVleet and Powell, so he could be asked to play more minutes vs. the Hornets.
Fast Break
Danuel House is another member of the Rockets worth considering today. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.8% in games without Westbrook this season, resulting in an average of 29.17 DraftKings points per game. He’s priced at $4,500 on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel, so that production would be more than enough at his current price tags.
It’s going to be tough to afford Brandon Ingram if you’re paying up for Doncic and/or Harden, but he’s an elite target vs. the Bulls. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he’s averaged 1.50 FanDuel points per minute in games without Holiday this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Serge Ibaka has been a pretty steady contributor recently. He’s scored at least 33.5 DraftKings points in eight of his past nine games, and he’s increased his production to 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
There’s no reason to expect any decline today. Marc Gasol remains out in addition to all of the other Raptors’ injuries, so Ibaka is projected for 32.8 minutes in our NBA Models. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.86.
He’s underpriced on FanDuel at $7,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Value
Thaddeus Young exploded for 35.3 FanDuel points in his last game, and he’s a prime candidate to replace the injured Wendell Carter Jr. in the starting lineup. He’s increased his production to 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage with increased playing time. His matchup vs. the Pelicans is also excellent, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.99 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, Derrick Favors stands out as an elite target on FanDuel. He’s been a monster over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.56, and he should see a few additional minutes today with Holiday out of the lineup. The Bulls also represent an elite matchup for big men: His Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.16 is the top mark at the PF position.
It’s much harder to find strong values today on DraftKings, but PJ Tucker is pretty reasonable at $4,000. He’s averaged just 0.56 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but he is projected for 36.8 minutes vs. the Hawks. That’s a lot of potential playing time for a pretty minimal salary.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic has been one of the most reliable producers in fantasy recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past 10 games on FanDuel, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +8.31 over that time frame. That said, his salary has increased by only $700 over the past month, so his $8,800 number today is still reasonable.
He takes the court in one of the best possible spots today vs. the Wizards. They’ve been arguably the best matchup in basketball for centers this season, ranking dead last in both defensive efficiency and team rebound rate. Vucevic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70, and he leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
It’s pretty easy to jam in both Harden and Doncic on FanDuel, so you can build a unique lineup by forgoing one of those options for Vucevic and Ingram.
Value
The only real downside with Vucevic is that you’re going to have to pass up on one of the best pure values in Mitchell Robinson. Robinson has been somewhat quiet this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -0.99 on FanDuel, but he should be unleashed today vs. the Jazz. Julius Randle has already been ruled out for personal reasons, while Marcus Morris is doubtful. Robinson is currently projected for 28.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.47 with a comparable minute projection.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis is currently questionable for the Pacers, and his absence would increase the appeal for Myles Turner. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +6.8% with Sabonis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.12 DraftKings points per minute.
Pictured above: Mavericks G Luka Doncic (77) and Rockets G James Harden (13)
Photo Credit: Bill Baptist-NBAE via Getty Images
