The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young is currently questionable with a hamstring injury, but he’s a very appealing target if he’s able to suit up. He’s seen a massive -$1,700 price decrease over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. Young has crushed with a comparable salary this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.01 (per the Trends tool).
His matchup vs. the Clippers doesn’t look great on paper, but the Clippers are decimated with injuries right now. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley will all miss today’s contest, which leaves the team without three of their best perimeter defenders.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, all those injuries for the Clippers is obviously going to create some value. Landry Shamet is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, which makes him a pretty appealing target. He’s currently projected for 32.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.42. Shamet hasn’t exactly crushed recently, averaging just 0.56 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but that’s a lot of playing time to pass up at the absolute minimum.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker remains priced down at $6,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, and he’s in a fantastic spot vs. the Memphis Grizzlies.
Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kemba Walker (8) of the Boston Celtics.
They rank fourth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency, and Walker owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.65. Jaylen Brown has also been ruled out for the Celtics, and Walker has seen a usage bump of +1.6% with Brown off the court this season.
Kyle Lowry was priced at $8,000 on DraftKings for his last game, but that’s dropped to just $6,600 for today’s matchup vs. the 76ers. The result is a Bargain Rating of 96%, which is the top mark at the position. Lowry has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.64 with a comparable price tag this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past six games. That’s caused his salary to drop by a pretty massive amount across the industry. His price tag has dropped to just $11,200 on DraftKings after peaking at $13,000.
That makes him a very appealing buy-low candidate. He’s still commanding a massive usage rate — he posted a usage rate of 41.1% in his last game — but his jump shot just hasn’t fallen. He’s shooting just 33.1% from the field and 23.1% from 3-point range over the past seven games, both of which are well below his season averages. When his jumper starts falling again, he’s going to crush his current price tag.
Cato Cataldo/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: James Harden (13) of the Houston Rockets.
Unfortunately, his matchup vs. the Nuggets is not ideal. They’ve played at second-lowest pace in basketball this season, which makes this a massive pace down spot for the Rockets. Harden has averaged just 52.5 DraftKings points in his first two meetings vs. the Nuggets this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -3.45.
I still think Harden has appeal at a reduced price tag — particularly if he’s going to command lower ownership than usual — but he might have less upside than usual.
Value
Lou Williams isn’t someone you would typically consider a “value”, but he’s just way too cheap at $6,300 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s going to have to carry a massive workload for the Clippers today. He’s seen a team-high usage rate of +7.0% with Leonard, George, and Beverley off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.35 FanDuel points per minute.
The Hawks also represent a tremendous matchup. They currently rank third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Clippers’ implied team total of 118.5 is tied for fourth on the slate. Williams has ridiculous upside at a pretty modest price tag.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell’s price tag continues to drop on FanDuel. It’s down to just $6,200 for today’s matchup vs. the Warriors, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. That’s pretty ridiculous. Mitchell has only had a comparable salary in eight previous games, but he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.19. The Warriors are not a matchup to fear, so fire him up with confidence.
Buddy Hield is another player with a Bargain Rating of 99% on FanDuel, and he has slightly more upside than usual with Marvin Bagley III out of the lineup. Hield has also posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.96 over his past 10 games, so I’m not entirely sure why his salary continues to drop.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James headlines the small forward position, but he’s pretty expensive at the moment. He’s seen a large price increase over the past month, which makes him tough to roster with Anthony Davis expected to play. There is also some blowout risk vs. the Knicks, with the Lakers currently favored by a slate-high 11.5 points.
With that in mind, paying down a bit at the position is perfectly viable. Will Barton continues to stand out in our Models given the Nuggets’ current injury situation. Gary Harris has been upgraded from doubtful to questionable, but Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray are both out indefinitely. Barton has seen a usage bump of +4.5% with Millsap and Murray off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.03 FanDuel points per minute.
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Will Barton (5) of the Denver Nuggets.
His matchup vs. the Rockets is also excellent. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in basketball, so this is one of the largest pace-up spots possible.
Value
Joe Ingles wasn’t really needed in Utah’s last game, which they won by 30 points over the Pacers. That snapped a streak of four straight games with at least 29.75 DraftKings points, and there’s no reason to expect him not to return to that level of production if today’s contest vs. the Warriors is more competitive.
Ingles has increased his production to 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 34.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him an awesome value at just $5,300.
Fast Break
Gordon Hayward has more appeal than usual with Brown out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.5% with Brown off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He’s reasonably priced across the industry in a juicy matchup vs. the Grizzlies.
Tobias Harris leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Harris has been very consistent recently, scoring at least 27.1 FanDuel points in nine straight games, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Joel Embiid.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis is coming off a dreadful performance vs. the Jazz in his last outing, scoring just 21.0 DraftKings points over 28.1 minutes. That said, the Jazz are very tough on the interior defensively, so I think we can give him a pass.
He’s in a much friendlier spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns. They rank just 21st in team rebound rate, and they also allow the ninth-most points per game in the paint.
What really makes Sabonis stand out is his price tag on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Sabonis has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.19 with a comparable salary this season. He’s one of the top options of the day regardless of position.
Value
The Nuggets have a pair of amazing values at the power forward position on FanDuel. Both Jerami Grant and Michael Porter Jr. own Bargain Ratings of 99%, making both strong options for the shorthanded Nuggets.
Let’s start with Porter. He has been nothing short of sensational when given a chance to play big minutes this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 39.1 FanDuel points in three of his past four contests.
Overall, he’s averaged a ridiculous 1.29 FanDuel points per minute this season, which is more than guys like Sabonis, Bam Adebayo, and LaMarcus Aldridge. As long as he continues to see a healthy amount of playing time — he’s currently projected for 25.1 minutes in our NBA Models — $5,300 is simply too cheap.
Grant hasn’t been as productive as MPJ on a per-minute basis, but he offers a safer floor. He’s pretty significantly cheaper at just $4,200, and he’s also projected for more than eight additional minutes of playing time. Grant has posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.63 in three of his past four games, and no one at the position is projected for a better Plus/Minus today.
Fast Break
Today is all about Zion Williamson, who will make his debut vs. the Spurs after missing the first half of the season with a knee injury. He is expected to have his minutes monitored, but he’s still pretty tempting at just $4,500 on FanDuel.
Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Zion Williamson (1) of the New Orleans Pelicans.
It results in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and Williamson profiles as the type of guy who can average well over a fantasy point per minute. He could be worth a roll of the dice given an ownership projection of just 5-8%.
There are plenty of awesome value options available on FanDuel — I didn’t even mention Nemanja Bjelica, who is an elite target in his own right — but most of the value on DraftKings stands out in the midrange. Aldridge is definitely in play at just $6,800 given his Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s scored at least 35.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, and the Pelicans are not an intimidating matchup.
Center
Stud
There are plenty of options to choose from at the top of the center position, but Nikola Jokic stands out. He’s a particularly appealing target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%, and he should be asked to carry a larger workload than usual for the shorthanded Nuggets.
He has increased his usage rate by +4.3% with Millsap and Murray off the court this season, which could pay big dividends for the Rockets. Jokic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.91, which makes his already immense ceiling even higher than usual.
Value
Montrezl Harrell looks like a steal at just $5,900 on FanDuel. He hasn’t been playing as many minutes recently, but that shouldn’t be an issue today given the Clippers’ injury situation. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.9% with Leonard, George, and Beverley off the court this season, so he should be more involved offensively as well.
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Montrezl Harrell (5) of the Los Angeles Clippers.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert has been one of the most consistent producers in fantasy recently. He’s scored at least 43.5 DraftKings points in seven straight games, which makes him an appealing target at $8,500. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97% in an absolute dream matchup vs. the Warriors. They’ve been crushed by opposing centers this season, giving Gobert an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.53.
The values aren’t as strong if you’re looking to pay up at the position on FanDuel, but Deandre Ayton stands out at $8,200. His playing time is way up recently — he played 38.6 minutes in his last contest — and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.57 over his past 10 games.
Pictured: Clippers G Lou Williams (23)
Photo Credit: Sean M. Haffey-Getty Images
